Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Saturday)...

Key Messages:

1. The severe thunderstorm threat will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon, diminishing this evening.

2. Lingering showers under an upper low on Saturday, with cooler
temperatures.

Discussion:

The threat of severe thunderstorms continues for the entire area,
with the threat shifting to the northeastern portions over the
next few hours. Radar signatures in last hour have shown less
rotation, so the tornado threat may be diminishing, although it
cannot be ruled out entirely yet in southern sections. The primary
threats through the evening will be large hail and damaging winds.
The large hail threat will be rising in the next hour or two as
WBZ heights drop with the passage of the mid/upper trough axis.
The severe threat will end once the trough moves east, which is
expected to occur around 00-02Z.

A slow-moving closed mid/upper low will track across the central
Appalachians tonight, and be located near the Chesapeake Bay area
tomorrow. Cold temps aloft and overcast cloud cover will keep
temperatures well below normal through Saturday. Light showers
under the low will be scattered to numerous through the day, with
greater coverage in northern sections.

DGS

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...

Key Messages:

1. Some lingering showers possible Saturday night, mainly across far
NE TN and SW VA.

2. Warming temperatures and dry conditions into the new work week.

Discussion:

On Saturday night, an upper level low ENE of the CWA will continue
to shift eastward through the weekend, all while a deepening trough
over the western CONUS begins to amplify ridging over the midwest.
Some lingering activity will be possible Saturday night as the upper
level low still meanders eastward, however, just expect light rain
showers generally in far northeast TN and southwest VA.

Heading into the work week, the synoptic pattern will continue to
amplify. This will result in upper level ridging and surface high
pressure influencing the weather across the south and central
Appalachian region. Warming temperatures can be expected into the
midweek with temperatures above normal by Tuesday through Thursday.

By the end of the week, guidance suggest the upper level low
shifting ENE at the start of the period will sink back southward.
There still remains some discrepancies among long term guidance,
nonetheless, NBM has populated with a return of some slight chance
to chance PoPs Thursday and Friday afternoon. Currently nothing
stands out enough to go against it this far out. Temperatures should
remain above normal Friday as well.

KS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Thunderstorms will be affecting the area through the rest of the
afternoon, tracking from SW to NE. Gusty winds are expected at the
TAF sites with the storms, along with IFR vis in heavy rainfall.
Most of this activity should exit the area by 00Z. Tonight, an
upper low pressure system will track overhead, which will lead to
low clouds developing at all sites. MVFR cigs are expected to
prevail, although IFR may be possible at TYS and moreso at TRI. A
few scattered showers will also linger into tomorrow morning at
TRI.

DGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  65  52  76  54 /  20  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  61  51  72  51 /  40  40  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  63  50  72  51 /  40  30  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  60  49  68  47 /  80  80  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
254 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-071900-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
254 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 /154 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A threat of severe storms will continue across the entire area for
the remainder of the afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are
the main threats. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. The severe
threat is expected to diminish between 6 and 9 pm EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports will continue to be needed through this afternoon.

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