Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
257 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Key Messages:

1. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect mainly
the northern half of the area through the rest of afternoon. The
potential for severe storms appears low.

2. A weak cold front will pass through the area this evening,
bringing a drier air mass and clear skies for Monday.

Discussion:

Coverage of showers has started to increase in SW VA and the
northern Cumberland Plateau early this afternoon as a cold front
moves E-SE across KY. The HRRR depicts the current storms expanding
and merging into a line that moves across the northern and central
TN Valley, then another line of storms along the cold front moves
through between 22-01Z. The potential for these storms to reach
severe levels appears to have lowered due to the extensive cloud
cover that has blanketed the northern half. There are still some
steep lapse rates, strong winds aloft, and a low WBZ height, so a
few strong storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible.

All showers should be out of the area by midnight as the front will
be located near the spine of the Appalachians by then. If winds drop
off to near calm tonight, then fog will likely develop. Will mention
patchy fog tonight. High pressure over the Plains and a dry NW flow
will build over the area through Monday. Since the main upper trough
axis will still be over the upper Midwest and not strongly
amplified, and the upper jet remains well north of our area, the
frontal passage will not bring a strong push of cold air. So highs on
Monday will be in the 70s across the Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Key Messages:

1. Cool mornings will accentuate the dry fall weather pattern
through Thursday.

2. Next best chance for rain will hinge on how Ian's forecast and
exact track develops for Friday and Saturday.

Discussion:

The first part of the extended period will be dry, cool, fall
weather. A deep upper trough over the eastern US will persist
through midweek before exiting to the northeast. At the surface, a
reinforcing shot of cool air courtesy of a surface high coming out
of Canada will maintain the cool weather. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 40s for the Tennessee valley to begin the period before rising
into the 50s going into the weekend. Highs will be in the low 70s
all week.

Towards the end of the period, the remnants of Ian may be drawing
near East Tennessee. For any of our local residents who may be
traveling to the Gulf Coast this week, follow local officials'
orders and pay close attention to the National Hurricane Center's
forecasts. For our area specifically, the ensembles bring Ian's
remnants into the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon.
Continuing high uncertainty regarding the exact track of Ian will
determine the eventual magnitude and extent of impacts here as we
draw closer. For now, possibly heavy rain with some gusty winds
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around the TAF sites
through 00Z, mainly TRI and TYS. If a storm passes over a
terminal, MVFR conditions can be expected, possibly IFR for a
brief time. A cold front passing through the area will end shower
activity around 00-03Z. Winds will be gusty from the SW until the
frontal passage, after which time winds will shift to W and become
lighter. Models indicate fog potential at TRI, but confidence is
low on this. For now, will mention MVFR vis and let later TAFs go
lower if needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  79  50  74 /  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  56  76  46  72 /  30   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  77  45  71 /  20   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              53  73  42  68 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-261915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
305 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 /205 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the evening. A few storms may have the potential to
produce hail and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should relay any information about severe weather this
afternoon and evening to the NWS.

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