Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
321 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Saturday)...

Key Messages:

1. Convection will remain mostly diurnally driven.

2. Temps climbing above normal.

Discussion:

Shortwave trough responsible for the ongoing Middle TN and
Plateau convection will slowly cross the forecast area tonight.
Convection should be mostly diurnally driven but could last into
mid-late evening thanks to influence of the shortwave.

Ridging builds aloft Saturday, so probably a less convectively
active day overall, though warmer. Most convection will take place
east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors Saturday, especially in the
mountains. The mountains will continue to be in a marginal risk
area for excessive rainfall.

GC

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...

Key Messages:

1. Daily scattered chances for showers/storms with better rain
chances midweek as a cold front approaches.

2. Temps near or slightly above normal with highs generally in the
mid/upper 80s to low 90s.

Discussion:

At the start of the period, ridging will stay in place across our
area on Saturday night and through Sunday. Diurnal showers/storms
are possible Sunday afternoon with higher chances for development in
the higher elevations. This ridging is disrupted Monday as an upper
level trough digs through the northern plains and into the midwest.
Chances for showers and storms in the forecast again on Monday
afternoon and evening. By Tuesday a lengthy cold front associated
with this trough is draped from the TX panhandle up through
Illinois/Michigan. Shortwave impulse looks to make its way into East
TN on Tuesday ahead of this front and provide more chance for
rain/storms. By Wednesday this front will be pushing across TN
allowing for another chance of showers/storms. Storms that develop
could produce gusty winds/heavy rain and flash flooding may be a
concern midweek if there is persistent or repeated heavy rainfall,
especially over saturated areas.

By the end of next work week, the frontal boundary will be south of
us and model guidance suggests much drier PWATS and drier air
following the front--but uncertainty remains about the timing of the
frontal passage.

Temperatures Sunday through mid week will be near normal or slightly
above normal, ranging from the mid/upper 80s to the low 90s across
East Tennessee.

KBW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Convection over the Plateau will drift southeastward into the TN
Valley. VFR conditions will prevail at the sites this afternoon
except beneath showers/storms. Will include VCTS most of the
afternoon with two-hour TEMPOs at the sites for mid-afternoon.

Convection decreasing this evening, and it seems by morning BR at
TYS will at least flirt with MVFR, while at TRI may possibly get
to IFR.

GC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  91  72  91  73 /  20  20  10  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  91  70  92  71 /  10  20   0  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  90  69  91  70 /  10  20   0  20  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  88  66  90  67 /  20  30   0  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-271930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 /230 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will peak in strength and coverage in
the afternoon and early evening hours. Slow moving storms could
result in isolated heavy rainfall, leading to isolated flooding.
Stronger storms might produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue into next
week ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. There remains
uncertainty as to when or if the front will move through the area,
but localized flash flooding remains a concern due to potential of
repeated rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE MORRISTOWN         36.20N 83.28W
08/26/2022                   HAMBLEN            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            BARKLEY LANDING ROAD CLOSING DUE TO
            FLOODING. LOCATION OFF SOUTH CUMBERLAND
            STREET NEAR STATE ROUTE 160.

0815 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S RUSSELLVILLE        36.21N 83.19W
08/26/2022                   HAMBLEN            TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING ALONG SLOP CREEK ROAD. TIME AND
            LOCATION APPROXIMATE. REPORTED THROUGH
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

0815 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW LOWLAND           36.18N 83.23W
08/26/2022                   HAMBLEN            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN HAMBLEN
            COUNTY. SOME ROADS BARRICADED. VIDEO FROM
            BROADCAST MEDIA OF FLOODING ALONG SPRINGDALE
            ROAD WITH THE ROAD CLOSED AT A STREAM
            CROSSING. LOCATION NEAR STATE ROUTE 160.
            VIDEO SENT IN JUST BEFORE 800 AM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

VAZ002-005-006-261830-
Scott VA-Wise VA-Russell VA-
143 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Russell, northeastern Scott and southeastern Wise Counties through
230 PM EDT...

At 143 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Trammel, or 11 miles southeast of Wise, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coeburn, St. Paul, Dungannon and Castlewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 8243 3698 8240 3698 8237 3696 8236
      3698 8231 3696 8216 3676 8231 3685 8256
      3701 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 282DEG 7KT 3690 8238

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

TNZ083-262015-
Rhea TN-
333 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Rhea County
through 415 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spring City, or 11 miles north of Dayton, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spring City, Old Washington, Evensville, Piney Falls State Park and
Stinging Fork Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8506 3568 8499 3569 8499 3576 8492
      3566 8478 3564 8478 3563 8479 3560 8478
      3551 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 326DEG 5KT 3565 8497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BW