Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)...

Key Messages:

1. Flood Watch for Southwest Virginia and a few adjacent counties in
Tennessee this afternoon/evening.

2. Diminished coverage of showers/storms tonight, but coverage will
begin to increase north late tonight and then all areas early
Thursday as cold front moves in.

Discussion:

Current radar shows main area of showers/storms shifting northward
across the area, and is moving into the flood watch counties across
the north. With these areas generally starting with lower FFG
values, will keep the flood watch in effect as is. Tonight will see
convection coverage decrease this evening, but by late tonight the
initial cold front will be pushing toward northern areas.  Expect to
see an uptick in coverage across the north late tonight, then the
band of better coverage is expected to migrate south across the area
Thursday as the front moves in and through.  PW values of 1.8+ will
still be common to start the day although values will show a
downtrend during the day, and a more limited threat of heavy
rainfall/localized flooding is expected Thursday especially in areas
where the ground is already quite wet from earlier heavy rain. This
will be mentioned in the HWO. Drier air will begin working in from
northwest to southeast during the day behind the front, and will
show a decreasing trend in PoPs as this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms exiting the area Thursday evening.

2. Much drier and milder airmass Friday into this weekend.

Discussion:

Thursday overnight into Friday will feature two cold fronts passing
through the area. The first frontal boundary will be pushing any
remaining showers out of eastern Tennessee into Georgia Thursday
evening. The second frontal boundary should be dry and will push
through overnight into early Friday morning, and will herald the
arrival of the drier airmass heading into the weekend.

The cold fronts mark the arrival of a pattern change as an upper
level trough swings south into the eastern U.S. An attendant high
pressure surface ridge on the backside of the trough will help
advect drier air into Tennessee and southwest Virginia going into
the weekend. Therefore, Friday and Saturday should be dry across
eastern Tennessee, in fact, Saturday morning could be unusually nice
for this time of year. By Saturday morning, the 12z NAM has low to
mid 50s dewpoints for eastern TN and southwestern VA. GFS and Euro
Ensembles show widespread PW values under 1", so Saturday will start
out cool, especially in southwestern Virginia and north of I-40,
and should yield an excellent day for August.

Surface high pressure will pivot eastward on Sunday, putting the
region in a more southerly flow pattern with increasing low-level
moisture. As a result, diurnal rain chances return to start the next
week with weak disturbances aloft and northwesterly flow aiding
convection. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal
through the period, with Saturday morning being notably cool.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Will be convection around, especially early and again late in the
period. MVFR or lower conditions can be expected in any
significant convection. Outside of convection, will likely see
some lower cigs and/or vsby restriction in fog to at least MVFR
especially at TRI later tonight into Thursday morning. Will
include MVFR conditions at all sites later tonight into Thu
morning as a tempo or prevailing to account for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  85  68  86  63 /  40  70  40  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  84  67  83  60 /  40  70  20  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  83  65  82  60 /  50  70  10  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  80  63  80  55 /  50  70  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for Campbell-Claiborne-
     Hancock-Scott TN.

VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-111945-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
333 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 /233 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon then will
diminish this evening. The stronger storms will have the
potential for very heavy rain, and localized flash flooding will
possible today and into this evening mainly across portions of the
northern Plateau, northeast Tennessee, and Southwest Virginia.
Also, strong gusty winds remain possible from strong storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

On Thursday, additional showers and storms can be expected, and a
few locations may see very heaving rainfall with localized
flooding, as well as gusty thunderstorm winds that could knock
down a few trees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected. However, reports of storm
damage, such as downed trees, are appreciated, as well as reports
of flooding.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
129 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

TNZ036-069-071-073-101830-
Anderson TN-Knox TN-North Sevier TN-NW Blount TN-
129 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Anderson,
Knox, northeastern Blount and northwestern Sevier Counties through
230 PM EDT...

At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Knoxville, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Maryville, Sevierville, Clinton, Alcoa,
Farragut, Louisville, Rockford and Eagleton Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 8414 3600 8428 3621 8397 3617 8392
      3617 8391 3616 8390 3617 8390 3617 8388
      3594 8355 3569 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 175DEG 15KT 3592 8402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

TNZ016-039-042-102000-
Hamblen TN-Northwest Greene TN-Hawkins TN-
315 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Hawkins, northwestern Greene and eastern Hamblen Counties through 400
PM EDT...

At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Russellville, or 11 miles southwest of Rogersville, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Rogersville, Bean Station, Russellville, Mosheim, Bulls
Gap, St. Clair, Lowland, McCloud and Romeo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 8279 3612 8312 3616 8317 3618 8317
      3617 8319 3613 8318 3613 8319 3615 8323
      3628 8333 3629 8332 3627 8331 3628 8330
      3626 8328 3629 8326 3632 8328 3650 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 238DEG 41KT 3626 8310

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

McD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

TNZ016-017-042>046-102045-
Sullivan TN-Washington TN-Northwest Greene TN-Northwest Carter TN-
Southeast Greene TN-Unicoi TN-Hawkins TN-
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sullivan, central Hawkins, Washington, Greene and central Unicoi
Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonesborough, or near Erwin, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Kingsport, Greeneville, Elizabethton, Erwin,
Rogersville, Jonesborough, Tusculum, Surgoinsville and Midway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 8260 3603 8259 3607 8264 3601 8274
      3632 8313 3660 8277 3660 8273 3626 8225
      3625 8229 3622 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 238DEG 49KT 3621 8249

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

McD

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