Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
746 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Sunday)...

Key Messages:

1. Another round of storms through this evening and again mainly
Sunday afternoon/evening. Main concern will remain isolated
damaging winds with down trees being the main threat. Also,
localized heavy rainfall producing runoff/flash flooding.

2. Patchy areas/areas of fog expected tonight/early Sunday
morning. Some of the fog will be dense.

Discussion:

Currently there are two main areas of storms, northern Plateau and
far east Tennessee Mountains. The latest HRRR and HREF show
increasing coverage of storms across in the valley late this
afternoon/early evening, especially areas along and north of
interstate 40.

MLCAPEs are between 2000-2500 with DCAPE of 800-900 (Theta-e
Difference of 25-30) and PWs of 1.6-1.8 inches. Mid-level lapse
rates of 6-6.2 degree C. These parameters the potential of
damaging winds (wet ground will increase the threat of down trees)
and localized runoff/flash flooding problems.

Loss of daytime heating by sunset, convection will quickly
diminish in coverage and intensity. Can not rule out
isolated/widely scattered convection anytime overnight.

For tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity diminish greatly
with sky becoming partly cloudy. Any breaks in the clouds will
allow for patchy areas/areas of fog. Some of the fog will likely
become dense. Degree of coverage largely depends on amount of
clearing.

For Sunday, pattern of weakness in upper ridge and surface ridging
into the southern Appalachians. Airmass will remain similar to the
last couple of days. Main forcing will be the terrain features and
expect initial convection development over the mountains and
Plateau. MLCAPEs will be up to 2000 with continued DCAPEs of
600-800 and PWs of 1.6-1.7 inches. Same concerns with isolated
damaging winds and localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday Night)...

Key Messages:

1. Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day with the
potential for localized strong storms and flash flooding.

2. Potential cold front passage Thursday, with drier conditions
behind it.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, weak ridging will be over the South with the
exception of an inverted trough along the Gulf Coast. A trough will
dip into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and into the Tennessee Valley
by Wednesday night into Thursday. Northwesterly upper level flow
will continue through Friday as a deep trough anchors over the East
Coast. At the surface, an extension of the Bermuda-Azores high will
be over the Southeast. A cold front will slowly move through the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This front will slowly move through the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday night (ECMWF) or Thursday (GFS). Either
way showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday afternoon and
evening as minor shortwaves move through the pattern. This looks
like a clean frontal passage with a drier air mass moving into the
region by Thursday night or Friday.

Monday and Tuesday: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected each afternoon and evening with a moist air mass in
place with PWAT values around 2 inches. With moderate instability
(CAPE: 2000 to 3000 J/kg) forecast a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible. The biggest threat will be damaging
wind gusts and high rain rates that cause localized flash flooding.
We have been getting a lot of reports of trees falling the past week
even when there are no showers or storms on radar. The wet soils
make trees more vulnerable, so that trend will likely continue as
long as we are in this wet pattern.

Wednesday and Thursday: A slow moving cold front will bring showers
and storms day and night. The threat for strong storms producing
damaging winds and high rain rates will be highest Wednesday and
Thursday with greater lift from the frontal boundary.

Friday: With a drier air mass in place, activity will be more
isolated and hopefully this will be a break from the wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Main flight concerns this evening will be lingering storms at KCHA
and KTRI during the next hour with MVFR visibilities. Activity
near KTYS has already moved out. Later tonight fog will be the
development of fog and low clouds at TRI and TYS and some MVFR fog
at KCHA. IFR to possibly LIFR conditions possible especially
between 06-12Z. Redevelopment of storms are expected again
Sunday in the afternoon so continued prob30 remarks after 18Z.
Due to surface ridging into the southern Appalachians, winds will
be light and variable except near thunderstorms.

TD

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-071915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
311 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 /211 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this early this
evening then diminishing in coverage and intensity. Localized
flash flooding and damaging wind gusts are the main concerns
within the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

A wet pattern will remain in place with scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms is
expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours. Localized
flooding will be possible with thunderstorms that move slowly or
track repeatedly over the same locations, and damaging wind gusts
will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms.

Be especially careful when camping due to the wet ground. The wet
soil increases the likelihood of down trees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of flooding or wind damage are encouraged.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
501 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ081-082-062245-
Sequatchie TN-Bledsoe TN-
501 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sequatchie
and southwestern Bledsoe Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dunlap, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dunlap, Old Cumberland, Cagle, Cartwright and Fall Creek Falls State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8551 3555 8546 3557 8542 3567 8532
      3567 8531 3541 8533 3527 8542 3529 8553
      3531 8556 3532 8556 3534 8554 3536 8551
      3541 8549 3541 8551 3542 8551 3543 8554
      3549 8554 3550 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 292DEG 17KT 3540 8550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
635 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW BEARDEN           35.95N 84.05W
08/06/2022                   KNOX               TN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE FELL ON VEHICLE AT INTERSECTION OF
            CREEKHEAD DRIVE AND PINEY GROVE CHURCH ROAD.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW BEARDEN            35.96N 84.05W
08/06/2022                   KNOX               TN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON LINES ON DEERWOOD ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ016-017-042-VAZ005-062330-
Sullivan TN-Northwest Greene TN-Hawkins TN-Scott VA-
651 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Sullivan, northeastern Hawkins, northeastern Greene and southeastern
Scott Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Gate City to 6 miles south of
Surgoinsville. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsport, Gate City, Weber City, Church Hill, Mount Carmel,
Baileyton, Sullivan Gardens, Hiltons, Jearoldstown and Bays Mountain
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 8244 3643 8260 3644 8267 3641 8270
      3641 8263 3639 8263 3632 8267 3631 8289
      3667 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 250DEG 13KT 3661 8271 3638 8285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ082-083-099-062345-
Rhea TN-Bledsoe TN-Hamilton TN-
654 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Rhea,
south central Bledsoe and northeastern Hamilton Counties through 745
PM EDT/645 PM CDT/...

At 654 PM EDT/554 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles west of Dayton to 6
miles north of Soddy-Daisy. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Soddy-Daisy, Graysville, Sale Creek, Flat Top Mountain,
Brayton and Mowbray Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 8507 3532 8524 3535 8523 3537 8525
      3559 8518 3555 8494 3547 8497 3546 8499
      3545 8498 3543 8499 3540 8503 3538 8503
      3537 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 288DEG 11KT 3550 8513 3534 8519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
706 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ099-062345-
Hamilton TN-
706 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Hamilton County through 745 PM EDT...

At 705 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lookout Mountain, or 9 miles northeast of Trenton, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Signal Mountain, Ridgeside, Red Bank, East Ridge and
Lookout Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8546 3501 8542 3503 8542 3504 8541
      3504 8539 3507 8536 3509 8536 3510 8537
      3516 8526 3499 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 236DEG 13KT 3500 8543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH