Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
638 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight risks of severe storms today and Sunday, with Sunday's risk
  covering much more of the region.

- Dry and seasonable weather most of next week.

Today and Tonight... So far today has played out differently than
originally expected with more rain and thunderstorms into the late
morning and early afternoon. This combined with additional cloud
cover has lead to cooler temperatures than originally forecast. In
addition we have higher dew points as well so any areas that do clear
out could build up additional instability late this afternoon into
the evening. The best spot for this would be in south central
Minnesota. The arrival of the shortwave this evening in this area
with the greatest instability is where storms are most likely to
fire. The question will be how far north in Minnesota will they get.
Cooler than expected temperatures could keep the best chances for
strong to severe storms farther to the south. These storms will then
move to the northeast into west central Wisconsin later this
evening/tonight. With all the moisture present down in south central
Minnesota there are also some high precipitable water values and with
the HREF PMM and LPMM suggesting 2 inches of rain a Flood Watch for
flash flooding was issued. The maximum in the HREF had totals of
around 4 inches. This time of year through with well established
crops the biggest risk for flooding will be near streams, low lying
areas, and urban areas. The main threat will depend on what type of
storm mode we get, if it is more isolated than hail or more linear
than wind.

Sunday... This continues to look like the most interesting day of
weather this week. With a wave passing through the Upper Midwest
aloft and a cold front moving across the surface we will have plenty
of lift and synoptic support. Models suggest continued humidity ahead
of the front with dew points around 70. Models also suggest that we
will see steep mid level lapse rates, although we will need to keep
an eye on the location of a possible EML that could cap some of the
region. All of this together has been seen by the SPC and CSU
machine learning such that we now have a day 2 slight risk, upgraded
form the morning marginal risk. With all of the warm and moist air
expected to be advecting in on Sunday we should be capped for much of
the day due to warm air aloft. So it is not as likely that we will
see what we did today with the scattered morning and afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. This could however allow for instability
to build for the severe risk later in the day. For this reason we
will have a better idea of what kind of severe risk we will have
tomorrow once we see how tonight plays out and if any showers or
storms find a way to develop in the morning. Also with the frontal
forcing any storms that initiate will likely grow upscale into
linear systems quickly.

Monday through Saturday... Generally dry and near to slightly below
normal temperatures for this period. So a good couple of days to do
late summer outdoor activities! After an active weekend we will see
surface high pressure and an ridge aloft, thus the quiet forecast.
There is a lot of agreement around the different model ensemble
systems here so confidence is high. Late in the week a few members do
suggest that there could be a small upper level shortwave, but there
is little agreement. So this would be the main thing to watch. The
pattern does look to start changing again Labor Day Weekend so don't
expect the sunny and 70s type of weather to stick around long.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

TSRA will spread northeast across southern/eastern MN and WI this
evening, with showers persisting through much of the overnight.
MVFR/IFR cigs will likely develop late tonight area wide with the IFR
conditions most likely north of I-94. Slow improvement Sunday, but
returning to VFR by the afternoon. Another chance for TSRA Sunday
evening.

KMSP...Most of the activity will remain southeast tonight, but there
will be periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. MVFR cigs
develop after 07Z and should lift by late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind WNW 5-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NNW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning for
     Freeborn.

WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

MNZ042>045-049>053-057>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-282015-
Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-
Chisago-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Storm chances will be greatest from south central into western
Wisconsin. Scattered severe storms are possible, though
widespread severe weather is not anticipated. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with storms overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. This will result in another round of showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There will
be a better chance for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening across central and southern Minnesota. Large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall look to be the primary
threats, though a tornado can't be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

MNZ041-047-048-054>056-064-282015-
Douglas-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-
302 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Slight chance for thunderstorms, strong to severe storms
unlikely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. This will result in another round of showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There will
be a better chance for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening across central and southern Minnesota. Large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall look to be the primary
threats, though a tornado can't be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

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