Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms again today into this evening -
  locally heavy rainfall remains possible.

An upper level low is centered over central MN early this morning.
More specifically, radar reflectivity indicates it is currently over
Morrison County. This low will track south through the day. The area
of showers ongoing over central MN will trend to favor the western
side of the low later this morning and then continue to rotate
counterclockwise around it into IA this afternoon and evening.
Additional scattered showers and storms should develop on the eastern
flank of the system as daytime instability increases, but CAMs are
much less bullish with coverage in those areas. Maintained likely or
categorical PoPs across western MN where the current batch of showers
should rotate through this morning, but reduced them to chance
elsewhere with coverage looking less impressive with each forecast
update. Any showers and storms should weaken quickly this evening,
leaving a mostly dry night tonight.

The system will exit to the southeast Saturday, but cyclonic flow and
enough moisture/instability could still facilitate the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
across southern MN and western WI. However, coverage for this time
period also looks less impressive than previously thought and thus
adjusted PoPs lower.

Quiet weather with near normal temperatures will then prevail
through early next week before a more active pattern could return
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

A surface low over central MN will slowly drop south-southwest
today. The shield of rain that has been growing overnight will
remain on the southwest side of the low and is expected to impact (or
continue to impact) AXN, STC, and RWF through much of the morning.
Heavier rainfall rates could lead to MVFR/IFR conditions. Cigs will
improve to MVFR/VFR as Friday wears on but scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across
southern and eastern MN and western WI. Have included TEMPO groups
for -TSRA at MKT, STC, MSP, RNH, and EAU at times when CAMs suggest
thunderstorms are most likely (WI terminals being later in the day).
MVFR conditions are possible within any storms. Precip should taper
off overnight but models do suggest a good possibility of dense fog
developing early Saturday morning, especially across southern MN and
western WI. Southwesterly winds will turn/calm as the low drops
south through tonight before prevailing northeasterly Saturday
morning.

KMSP...MVFR cigs and vicinity showers prevail this morning before
cigs improve to VFR. However, scattered showers and storms appear
likely this afternoon into this evening. Have added a TEMPO for -TSRA
with conditions dropping to MVFR. There is some signal in the
forecast models for fog early Saturday morning but confidence is too
low to go with anything more than a mention of BR in the weather
category at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
329 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
200830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
329 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into early this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1037 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE PRESCOTT          44.80N 92.75W
08/18/2022                   PIERCE             WI   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON PROPERTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
115 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

MNZ078-191845-
Goodhue MN-
115 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Goodhue
County through 145 PM CDT...

At 115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanton, or 9 miles east of Northfield, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stanton around 125 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Cannon Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9304 4452 9304 4452 9299 4451 9295
      4452 9291 4450 9279 4435 9293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 206DEG 8KT 4443 9297

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NDC