Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
612 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

A cluster of showers and an embedded thunderstorm over east-central
MN will continue its trek east this afternoon. While this precip
hasn't been too impressive, the AXN ASOS did record 0.26" of rain
thru 18z. Additionally, the STC ASOS was reporting 1/2 mile
visibility from heavy rain and fog around 1pm. The activity will
weaken with time as it travels into western WI. However, additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across MN later this
afternoon as a cold front advances. Stronger convection is favored
in south-central and southern MN where earlier precip hasn't
affected surface temperatures, allowing SBCAPE to grow to near 2000
J/kg. While bulk wind shear is questionable (30-35 knots), CAMs do
hint the development of semi-organized small bowing segments as the
storms travel southeast. Thus, one or two severe wind gusts and
heavy downpours are possible with these storms before they exit to
our southeast near midnight. Precip amounts won't be great but areas
that do see storms could receive another quarter to half an inch.

Skies should become clearer from west to east overnight after the
cold frontal passage. Incoming northwest flow and drier air will
also make the humidity feel very comfortable. Overnight lows will
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight and 50s Wednesday
night. Wednesday, itself, should be pleasant as highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s are expected. Northwesterly winds may get a little
breezy during the afternoon with gusts to near 20 knots. Also, did
decide to keep slight chance PoPs across our area Wednesday
afternoon as post-frontal showers appear possible beneath the
cyclonic flow of an upper-level low. However, any precip should be
isolated an not put an entire damper on Wednesday's otherwise nice
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

KEY MESSAGE:

- Heat and humidity return this weekend.

The upper low that has been affecting our weather will continue to
slowly move off to the east on Thursday, as surface Canadian high
pressure begins to slide into the Dakotas. With cyclonic flow aloft,
there could be some isolated and inconsequential showers/sprinkles
during the afternoon, with the better chance expected to be in
northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. With the cool dry air
filtering into the region Thursday will be quite pleasant heat and
humidity wise with highs in the 70s and dewpoints mainly in the
lower 50s. On Friday, high pressure will drift across the area,
offering another very pleasant day with high temperatures once again
in the mid 70s to near 80 and dewpoints similar to Thursday's.

High pressure moves off to the southeast this weekend and as the
return flow increases we will see temperature and humidity levels
rise. The next chance for precipitation comes on Sunday/Sunday night
with the passage of a trough and associated cold front. The blended
forecast has small PoPs during the day on Sunday, but at this point
it looks like the better chance for accumulating precipitation comes
Sunday night. The heat and humidity continue to build early next
week, with highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to near 70
possibly returning to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Broken line of storms across western MN will progress southeastward
this evening and should impact all TAF sites, except maybe EAU.
Brief heavy rainfall and wind shift to the northwest can be expected
with the storms/front. There is a low chance for additional
development Wednesday, but the potential is too low to mention in
the TAFs attm.

KMSP...The back edge of the storms should be pushing through around
04Z. Additional cells could develop ahead of the main line, so
maintained a 3 hour TEMPO prior to the back edge coming through.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Light NW wind bcmg SW.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CTG
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
272000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
252 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. A few storms
will be capable of producing brief strong wind gusts and heavy
downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

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