Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
329 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. No severe weather is currently expected.

- Very warm temperatures expected to stick around through much of
  next week.

This afternoon through Sunday night... The upper level ridge
remains across the western CONUS with the ridge axis extending north
through the Rockies. An upper level low digging south into the PAC NW
which will eventually reach the upper Midwest next week. Shortwave
impulses continue to move around the periphery of the ridge with the
current wave sitting over the eastern Dakotas and northern MN. There
is a window of opportunity this afternoon/evening where isolated
thunderstorms will fire this afternoon. No organized or severe
convection is expected, but any storm that develops should produce
heavy rain. This will unfortunately be another one of those hit or
miss situations when it comes to the rainfall, so our 20 to 30 PoPs
mean a select few might end up hitting the jackpot and getting some
rain while most of us remain dry. Winds look to remain light into
Sunday as upper level ridging continues, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s this afternoon and the low 90s in the Twin Cities to mid
90s in western Minnesota on Sunday.

Monday through Saturday... Above normal temperatures prevail through
most of the extended forecast as Upper level ridging continues. High
temperatures look to peak on Monday with low 90s in WI to mid 90s in
the Twin Cities to near 100 in western Minnesota. A weak cold front
will bring another chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday. The best chances remain well north of our
forecast area across northern MN and into the northern Great Lakes.
The front will also do little to cool us down with low to mid 90s
for highs on Tuesday to our sole day of 80s on Wednesday before the
ridge builds back into the area into the weekend and highs return to
the 90s. After Tuesday, a drying trend is expected into next
weekend. Highs will be in the 90s with over night lows in the lower
70s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

VFR conditions today, with some scattered thunderstorms possible this
afternoon and evening. The best chances are at KAXN and KSTC, so did
include mention in the TAFS. Left it out at the remaining locations
due to uncertainty in timing and sparse coverage. Overnight winds
will go nearly calm and should fog or low stratus develop again
towards morning. Winds will remain light on Sunday.

KMSP...
There is a chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening,
but confidence was too low to mention in the Taf. Overnight could see
some fog, but for now kept it at VFR conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 15G25kts.
Wed...VFR with MVFR cigs possible. Wind WNW at 20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
101 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>076-082-171815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Watonwan-
101 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible across Minnesota this afternoon
and evening. Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy
rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A prolonged stretch heat and humidity is expected next week. Peak
heat indices in excess of 95 degrees are likely Monday and
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ077-078-083>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-171815-
Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
101 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west
central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Areas of fog will be possible tonight and it could be dense in
spots, especially east of I-35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A prolonged stretch heat and humidity is expected next week. Peak
heat indices in excess of 95 degrees are likely Monday and
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
531 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

MNZ041-042-162315-
Douglas MN-Todd MN-
531 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Douglas and
southwestern Todd Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Evansville to 5 miles
south of Long Prairie. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Long Prairie around 535 PM CDT.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 81 and 121.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 172 and 186.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4597 9480 4577 9476 4577 9514 4583 9575
      4610 9577 4611 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 326DEG 13KT 4601 9565 4589 9486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH