Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
127 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

KEY MESSAGE:

- Severe Weather Potential Tonight and Friday/Friday Night

Two shortwaves were noted in the afternoon water vapor imagery
across the Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest. The first was moving
across central Minnesota. The second was across southern North
Dakota. This second shortwave will have more impacts of convection
developing over west central Minnesota late this afternoon/evening.
In addition, MLCAPES are highest across South Dakota and far west
central Minnesota which extended northeast across the arrowhead of
Minnesota. This is also well noted in the GOES-16 Lifted Index
derived product which highlighted the lowest LIs. This correlated
well with the instability axis from the morning convection and will
be the main focus for afternoon/evening convection redeveloping.

There remains a weak surface trough across northern Minnesota which
could be the focus for initiation this afternoon in this region.
Farther to the west, very weak CIN and ample instability will also
be the focus where the cumulus field becomes more concentrated later
today. Based on the latest cumulus field and where the current
surface trough is located, areas north and east of Brainerd,
Minnesota will likely see some activity by late afternoon. After the
storms develop, the instability line will be the most activity with
redevelopment to the west (and associated with the second shortwave).
However, outflow boundaries from the storms this afternoon will
likely build southward and may affect areas as far south as the Twin
Cities, and Redwood Falls. However, these areas have a much lower
chance of widespread activity vs. central Minnesota. Later tonight,
and into Friday morning, the best chance of convection will remain
north and west of MPX CWA. I can't rule out a few morning storms
across central Minnesota where leftover convection overnight may
reside. The best chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
occur late Friday night as the main surface front and upper level
support moves across the region.

As for severe potential, wind shear is marginal tonight and Friday
as the main jet stream is north of our region. However, due to ample
instability and fairly strong lapse rates, a few stronger updrafts
could support a few large hailstones or damaging winds reports. But,
this is dependent on timing of the best instability, and the upper
level support of stronger wind shear. Currently, SPC has a slight
risk of severe thunderstorms tonight and Friday/Friday night where
the best of these two ingredients occur.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms along the cold front pushing
  through the area Saturday afternoon. Strong storms generally not
  expected.

- Quiet weather post-front that lingers for much of next week.

Saturday into Sunday...Saturday begins with a cold front pushing
into western MN from the Dakotas, reaching west-central Minnesota by
15-18z per GFS/NAM low level theta-E. Forecast soundings show meager
instability by the time the front swings through central and eastern
Minnesota by around 21z, with around 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE and weak
but sufficient low level shear. We could get a few storms to pop
along the boundary that could produce transient low-end severe
weather, however widespread and significant severe weather is not
expected. The front will continue into western Wisconsin by the
evening, with scattered showers and weak storms continuing as it
pushes out of the region. Temperatures will cool behind the departing
front with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Sunday through Thursday...Sunday will remain cool behind the
departing front with highs in the 70s, with a return to 80s during
the week. Broad high pressure enters the plains on Monday and lingers
through most of Tuesday, resulting in plenty of sunshine, light
winds, and comfortable temperatures, so outdoor plans during the
first few days of the week are looking like a great idea! High
pressure begins to wane by the end of Tuesday, with subtle shift in
the upper level pattern that will introduce small chances for showers
by Wednesday. For now, the longer range deterministic models are not
too enthusiastic about widespread or strong precipitation, however
there is the potential for some shortwave activity on Wednesday and
Thursday which could produce some marginally more active weather. Our
coverage area still remains on the southern edge of the a jet streak
north of the US border, which will keep our forcing from becoming
all that strong. Expect to see a bit more in the way of coverage and
timing as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Ongoing convection and outflow boundaries at initialization time
over central MN making for a tricky precip/wind forecast. Already
seeing this at STC where winds have gusted to 48kt while winds are
shifting to N for a brief period with the passage of the outflows.
Indications are that the convection will wane through the overnight
hours, staying just north of I-94 and east of AXN. Thus, RNH is next
most susceptible to the TSRA but MSP cannot be ruled out either.
Conditions will improve to VFR at all terminals by around daybreak
and remain as such through the day with winds settling on S 15G25kt
today. Ceilings return late day through this evening as more
widespread RA/TSRA is expected late tonight through early morning
Saturday. Have introduced VFR-worthy -RA at this point but will re-
evaluate the conditions for the 06z-12z Saturday period as
indications are that MVFR-IFR ceilings are likely with heavier
precipitation.

KMSP...Main question early on in this TAF duration is, will the
RA/TSRA to the north of MSP reach the terminal. Prevailing thinking
is that the precip by-and-large will remain north of MSP, cannot
entirely rule out TSRA at the terminal within the next few hours but
chances are fairly low. Will monitor and amend as needed. At this
point, have included a TEMPO for the wind shift and VFR ceilings with
the passage of the outflow. Better chances for more sustained
rainfall comes late Friday night through early Saturday morning,
including IFR-worthy ceilings and potentially visibility in bursts of
heavy rain.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Chc SHRA/MVFR early, then VFR. Wind WNW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
Mon...VFR. WInd W at 05-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...TH
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
238 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
241945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
238 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5)
across central Minnesota. Thunderstorms may develop this evening
and could contain large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected Friday afternoon through
Saturday. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather in western
Minnesota (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk of severe weather
in eastern Minnesota through western Wisconsin (level 1 of 5)
Friday into Friday night. A few of the storms could be severe
with large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed tonight across central
Minnesota.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1122 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

MNC097-153-240545-
Todd-Morrison-
1122 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Todd...Morrison...

* Until 1245 AM CDT.

* At 1120 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  Little Falls, Pierz, Browerville, Randall, Flensburg, Lastrup, Camp
  Ripley, Morrill, Buckman, Sobieski, Genola and Camp Ripley
  Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4603 9395 4585 9379 4582 9403 4582 9415
      4604 9493 4622 9480

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNZ049>051-240600-
Benton MN-Sherburne MN-Stearns MN-
1223 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Benton,
northwestern Sherburne and northeastern Stearns Counties through 100
AM CDT...

At 1223 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Foley, or 8 miles northeast of St. Cloud, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Foley around 1235 AM CDT.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 158 and 160.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 166 and 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4572 9377 4570 9375 4552 9377 4556 9437
      4573 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 275DEG 24KT 4562 9403

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1231 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNZ042-043-240600-
Morrison MN-Todd MN-
1231 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Todd
and west central Morrison Counties through 100 AM CDT...

At 1230 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Randall, or 13 miles northwest of Little Falls, moving east at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Randall.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 126 and 138.
 U.S. Highway 71 near mile marker 195.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4609 9489 4621 9485 4617 9443 4601 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0530Z 281DEG 8KT 4612 9456

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
126 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNC003-009-059-095-141-145-171-240800-
Wright-Mille Lacs-Anoka-Isanti-Benton-Sherburne-Stearns-
126 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Wright...Mille Lacs...Anoka...Isanti...Benton...Sherburne...
Stearns...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 125 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  St. Cloud, Cambridge, Andover, Ramsey, Elk River, Ham Lake, Otsego,
  Sauk Rapids, Monticello, East Bethel, Big Lake and St. Francis.

Additional rainfall of one to two inches is expected over the area.
This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4567 9314 4555 9314 4555 9306 4542 9302
      4530 9303 4524 9426 4528 9426 4529 9431
      4558 9433

CEO

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