Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
337 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON GOING THIS AFTERNOON...

Our "main event" is starting to get going with storms near the MN/SD
border at 3pm. This is a rare, high- end environment that will be
capable of producing a severe weather outbreak across the MPX
forecast area. The first concern is the potential for a few
supercells to develop in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
cold front. The WoFS has picked up a on these supercells forming over
northwest IA/southwest MN and moving northeast into central MN by
21Z. This potential will be monitored closely as they'd be capable of
producing all severe hazards including tornadoes. However, recent
trends from the WoFS has been to back down on the intensity of these
supercells, instead showing a severe QLCS coming out of SD.

The storms that form along the cold front will be capable of
producing all severe hazards too. This will track into eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin later this evening. Storm mode is
expected to transition from embedded supercells along the cold front
to a QLCS- like linear set up. The LLJ will enhance low level shear
this evening across western WI. This is concerning as it could
promote an environment capable of a QLCS tornado threat this
evening/early tonight.

Areas in the warm sector continue to recover with temperatures
warming back into the low/mid 80s. The mid level clouds have likely
helped our dew points stay in the mid to upper 60s across southern
MN, with less mixing due to stubborn cloud cover. This has kept our
LCLs on the lower side and if this trend continues, would be more
favorable for potential tornado development. Steep mid-level lapse
rates of 8.0C/km or greater are located with the area of best CAPE
with values of 2500J/kg or greater. KMPX VAD profile shows a highly
sheared environment present with 25+ kts of 0-1km shear and 300+
m2/s2 0-1km storm relative helicity. These storms will be moving
quickly with storm motions likely 60s kts or greater so it will be
important to plan ahead and act quickly after receiving any severe or
tornado warnings this afternoon. Once again, this environment has
analogs to some of historical, higher-end severe weather outbreaks
across the Upper Midwest.

Final concern for this evening, behind the severe threat, is a threat
for widespread severe/damaging wind over southwest MN. This is a
sting jet setup within the dryslot that will come in to the south of
the surface low. This is over Nebraska now, where we have seen the
occasional 50-60 mph wind gust. This is only expected to intensify
between 00z and 06z over southwest MN, the RAP showing h85 winds
increasing to nearly 80 kts. The big question is can we mix any of
this down to the surface. Forecast soundings for RWF say no, but
several CAMs do and they show the potential for a swath of 50-70 mph
winds over southwest MN. This is something we'll watch closely as we
may need to transition the Tornado Watch to a High Wind Warning.

The upper level low that brought the severe weather to the area will
remain mostly stationary in south central Canada through the week. A
cold front Thursday night may spark a few showers with the models
showing the best chance for any measurable precipitation to be in
west central Wisconsin. A better chance for some measurable
precipitation comes this weekend with a boundary getting hung up
somewhere in the vicinity of the Iowa/Minnesota border on Saturday,
and models are in pretty good agreement with an overrunning
precipitation type of event affecting southern Minnesota. Late in
the period the upper low in southern Canada elongates and starts to
depart eastward and a trough may slide into the area and offer
another chance for showers on Monday. The biggest change for in the
long term will be the temperatures. Highs each day will be in the
60s and 70s, with lows each morning in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Mainly VFR conditions except MVFR/IFR possible with thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening. It looks like an initial cluster of strong to
severe storms will affect western Minnesota and move NNE. As this
cluster moves into northern Minnesota a line of strong to severe storms
will form along a cold front and sweep eastward across the area.
Winds will be strong and gusty from the S/SE, becoming W/NW behind
the cold front. Strong LLWS also looks likely this evening.

KMSP...A shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out this afternoon,
but the best timing for storms at the terminal looks to be between
1z and 3z this evening. It looks like the line of storms will move
through pretty quickly with drier air moving in behind it.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice-
     Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.

WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BPH/MPG/CEO
AVIATION...CEO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1142 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
311645-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1142 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for
multiple strong tornadoes, remains on track this afternoon and
evening across Minnesota, particularly west of the I-35 corridor.
Additional hazards include large hail in excess of 2 inches and
wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and
flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.

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