Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

.UPDATED for 12Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Southerly winds gusting 40 to 50 mph are expected in western and
  southern MN today.

- Scattered thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening
  as a cold front moves through. A few storms could be severe, but a
  significant and widespread severe weather event is not
  anticipated.

- Near record lows expected Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

TODAY...Strong winds, warm temperatures, and potential for a few
strong to severe storms are the three talking points for today.
Southerly winds will increase during the day. The strongest gusts
will be across western and southern Minnesota, so have expanded the
wind advisory to include a few more counties. These southerly winds
will advect warm air across the region. Forecast guidance continues
to show low 70s for highs this afternoon, which would be the first 70
degree day of the season (and unfortunately likely the last for a
while).

As for the severe threat, expect a decaying area of showers and
thunderstorms to approach from the southwest this morning. As of 3AM,
these storms were located in central Nebraska, but the latest
lightning trend is already showing a weakening. This is expected to
continue as the race ahead and outrun the instability. Given the
strong winds just above the surface, could see some gusty winds with
any showers or thunderstorm this morning. The second round of
precipitation will come later this afternoon, and this is the main
reason the Storm Prediction Center continues its slight risk of
severe weather across much of the region. HiRes models, including all
four members of the 03Z HopWrf do show a scattered line of convection
developing across western Minnesota early this afternoon. The 06Z
HRRR is starting to depict this as well, and the statistical severe
model does show increasing probability of severe weather at 18Z this
afternoon. The shear is very strong, but the instability is narrow.
It does however seem to be trending a little higher on the latest
RAP. Overall the main threat continues to be damaging wind given the
strong synoptic winds aloft, and the overall high shear environment.
However, there is potential for rotating storms, and perhaps some low
top supercells across west central Minnesota. These storms could
produce a few tornadoes, which is why SPC has the 5% tornado area.
The hodographs still look rather linear as mentioned in the previous
discussion, but still can't rule out some rotating updrafts.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...No significant changes from the previous
forecast. The cold front will push through bringing west/northwest
winds, and cold air advection will persist across the region Sunday
through Tuesday. Temperatures will be well below normal, with near
record lows possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Wind finally
become easterly on Wednesday, but this is in response to another
shortwave trough brining small chances for showers Wednesday night
into Thursday. This pattern continues into next weekend, meaning
cooler weather, and small chances for rain. It's possible that some
thunderstorms could develop along I-90, but confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

Rather complex TAF period. Expect mainly VFR conditions this morning
and early this afternoon with strong southerly winds and some wind
shear/turbulence. There is a chance for a few showers and even some
thunderstorms this morning, but those should weaken over the next few
hours. Later this afternoon we could see a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms push up through the region ahead of a cold front. Winds
will become west/southwest behind this front, with MVFR ceilings to
follow for Sunday.

KMSP...

Continued to hold off on the precip in the TAF this morning. The
showers and thunderstorms to the southwest should weaken throughout
the morning. If they do hold together, showers is much more likely
than thunder. Later this afternoon a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop. These could produce gusty winds
and some hail, so have a TEMPO in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR with MVFR after 18Z. Wind W 10-20G35kt. Crosswinds
possible.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-
     Martin-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-
     Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
508 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
241015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
508 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Widespread southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph this afternoon. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for much of southwestern and southern
Minnesota.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening. A few of these could be severe with strong winds as the
primary risk, along with a brief tornado or two. The storms will
be fast-moving with a storm motion to the north near 60 mph
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed later today.

jrb

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