Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Twin Cities, MN

430 
WWUS53 KMPX 210418
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1118 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNC149-210428-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-220621T0430Z/
Stevens MN-
1118 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STEVENS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4576 9625 4576 9576 4551 9574 4541 9575
      4541 9622 4542 9625 4573 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 248DEG 54KT 4595 9605 4545 9564 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat wave peaks today, but above normal temperature to continue
  for the rest of the week.

- Severe thunderstorms with wind as the main threat possible in
  western Minnesota this evening into tonight.

Rest of today... The ridge that has dominated our recent weather
continues to move east and out of the Upper Midwest. On the west
side of this ridge has two impacts: this will be the peak of the
heat wave and storms chances have increased. Continued warm air
advection and continuous sun has pushed temperatures into the 90s
and dew points near 70 leading to heat index values in the 100 to 110
range. A few 100 degree air temperatures remain likely especially in
western Minnesota and in the urban core of the Twin Cities metro.
With all this heat and humidity we will build up significant
instability and CAPE values of 3000 or more are occurring and/or
expected. Storms are expected to fire up along vort maxes to our
southwest and along a cold front slowly moving from the eastern
Dakotas into western Minnesota overnight. This provides us with the
ingredients needed for thunderstorms. The shear is one of the greater
questions though. With this ridge overhead there is not great speed
shear or even much directional shear across much of the forecast
area. Where the shear, especially low level shear will be maximized
will be along the front. That is why the severe threat will be
greatest to the west. The severe threat making it into eastern
Minnesota, the Twin Cities, and Wisconsin is most likely to occur if
the storms this evening grow upscale and we get an MCS tonight moving
across the Upper Midwest. For this reason the main threat will be
damaging winds, although there is a chance for a few discrete cells
earlier in west central Minnesota where some hail could also be a
threat.

Tuesday through Thursday... As the ridge moves out and the cold
front passes through the heat wave and storm threat will come to an
end Tuesday. Western Minnesota will see relief in the morning while
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin won't see full relief from
the heat until Tuesday night. With a transition to zonal flow don't
expect much relief as temperatures will remain above normal even if
they are not as hot as the current heat wave. Expect temperatures
more in the 80s to around 90 for highs along with more normal dew
points the 50s and low 60s. So more typical summer temperatures for
the start of summer, albeit still a few degrees above normal. Few
chances for precipitation in this period beyond a chance for some air
mass thunderstorms.

Thursday night into the weekend... Precipitation chances return
Thursday night and into the weekend. Thursday night will see a
shortwave pass through the Upper Midwest giving us the next chance
for rain. Previously the best forcing here remained to the north, but
the models have started to shift to the south some. This is most
pronounced within the GFS while the other global models stick closer
to previous runs. There is also quite a spread for locations like
KMSP in ensembles, so little confidence right now in where the best
chance is. Future runs should help make this clearer. The next round
arrives on Saturday as a trough digs into the Upper Midwest. Once
again the GFS is the aggressive and wetter model for us taking the
main forcing farther south than other models. This is once again
reflected in ensembles with a large spread in QPF. So what's the
message for rain chances? Rain possible Thursday night and Saturday,
but location and QPF still uncertain. Hopefully future runs have
less spread between model systems and ensemble members. After these
chances higher pressure moves in and dry weather prevails.
Saturday's trough though does break the flow pattern and return our
temperatures much closer to normal after about a week of heat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across western MN. They should
impact primarily AXN and STC this evening before dissipating farther
east. Could have some MVFR cigs develop late in those areas as well
before lifting and scattering quickly after sunrise. South southwest
wind will veer west Tuesday.

KMSP...TS should remain to the north and west this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc TS late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc TS. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Anoka-Benton-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-
     Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.

     Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Kanabec-Martin-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Steele-Todd.

WI...Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082-083-WIZ014-015-023-212345-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Polk-
Barron-St. Croix-
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Dangerous heat indices will continue this evening.

A few severe storms are possible with damaging winds and large
hail, primarily across western Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this evening.

MNZ078-084-085-091>093-WIZ016-024>028-212345-
Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Rusk-Pierce-Dunn-
Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hot heat indices will continue this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
938 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW GRANITE FALLS      44.81N 95.55W
06/20/2022                   YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
943 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S GRANITE FALLS       44.75N 95.55W
06/20/2022  M58 MPH          YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KGDB GRANITE FALLS AP.

&&

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ057-058-065-210345-
Kandiyohi MN-Renville MN-Meeker MN-
1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Meeker,
southeastern Kandiyohi and north central Renville Counties through
1045 PM CDT...

At 1020 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported a strong thunderstorm
7 miles west of Cosmos, or 16 miles southeast of Willmar, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Litchfield, Cosmos, Greenleaf, Lake Lillian, Thorpe, Litchfield
Airport, Strout and Corvuso.

This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 94 and 102.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4497 9497 4521 9454 4500 9442 4498 9447
      4498 9450 4497 9450 4481 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 236DEG 45KT 4494 9484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1022 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW BLOMKEST          44.97N 95.04W
06/20/2022                   KANDIYOHI          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S MADISON             44.98N 96.18W
06/20/2022  M61 MPH          LAC QUI PARLE      MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KDXX MADISON AP.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1047 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S MADISON             44.98N 96.18W
06/20/2022  M67 MPH          LAC QUI PARLE      MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KDXX MADISON AP.

&&

BORGHOFF