Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Key Point;

1. Severe Weather Chances, Timing and Highest Threat Area today,
tonight, and Monday.

Severe thunderstorm watch was issued earlier tonight in far
southwest Minnesota where a complex of storms developed in southeast
South Dakota. These storms are developing along the tight
thermal/moisture gradient, and low level jet which has been focusing
in this area since midnight. Farther north across northeast South
Dakota, another complex of storms that developed prior to midnight
has been associated with another shortwave and elevated instability
gradient which will continue to move north/northeast this morning.
The main concern this morning is whether the storms across southeast
South Dakota move farther to the north/northeast across far southern
Minnesota during the pre-dawn hours and generate a few strong/severe
storms. The key is the evolution of the moisture/thermal gradient
and associated low level jet before it weakens/veers after sunrise.
Current Pops are associated with the latest CAMS which will likely
be updated as the morning continues. Based on the current forecast,
these storms from northeast South Dakota, southward to FSD, will
likely continue to move east and slowly weaken by mid morning. Thus,
the best chances of widespread rainfall/locally strong to severe
storms will be across west central/southwest Minnesota. Elsewhere,
only chance Pops look reasonable as the strengthening CAP will lead
to little or no chance of precipitation through the afternoon. The
only exception will be across central Mn where the thermal gradient
and a weaker CAP could maintain at least some chances of
precipitation through the day.

Later today, and into the evening, another complex of storms will
likely redevelop across NE/SD along a strengthening low pressure
system as the mid-level shortwave moves out of the Rockies. An
enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms (See the latest SPC Day 1
Outlook) appears to concentrate across western/central Mn this
evening.  Although the GFS/EC show a large area of precipitation
tonight across most of MPX CWA, this is likely associated with the
large grid spacing... CAMS will have a better handle on the
individual storms vs. global models. The latest HRRR has the best
placement of the convection across southeast SD which takes this
activity northeast across southern Mn during the morning. Although it
does support a weakening trend as discussed before.

Monday morning storm activity will likely be key on where local
outflow boundaries and associated thermal gradient exist for
afternoon redevelopment. Will continue the same trends with
strong/severe storms across western Mn, with the best chance of
redevelopment along the cold front Monday afternoon. Timing and
areal coverage remains uncertain due to overnight storm activity but
at least the large scale storm system will move out of the Rockies
by Monday morning. As with previous discussions, especially
associated with the upper level storm system on Monday, severe
storms look likely along the cold front. See the latest SPC Day 2
outlook which will be updated this afternoon.

Beyond Monday night, a much cooler airmass will reside as the storm
system that will move out of the Rockies on Monday, becomes a large
upper low system across the southern part of Canada by midweek.
Scattered showers will be possible as weak disturbances ride
east/southeast along the southern axis of this storm system from
Wed/Thu/Fri. Therefore temperatures will average below normal, but
not too extreme as we head into the first week of June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

VFR to start for all terminals with clouds increasing overnight.
Little bit of a higher chance of seeing a broken line of decaying
thunderstorms, left over from a stronger complex moving through
eastern SD/NE, pushing across central-southern MN roughly in the
10-16z timeframe from west to east. Storms are not expected to be
strong due to their timing but some stronger wind gusts and brief
heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. Patchy MVFR ceilings will
briefly develop in the wake of this activity, then attention turns to
more organized thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Winds will become
breezy/gusty from the SE from around sunrise onward.

KMSP...VFR through daybreak, if not longer, but there is the chance
of some post-sunrise showers and thunderstorms moving through eastern
MN. After the precipitation clears, ceilings will remain near the
3000 ft threshold between VFR/MVFR categories, but overall VFR will
prevail. Next round of thunderstorms, more organized than the
morning round, will come late Sunday evening and persist into the
early Monday morning hours. Have held conditions as MVFR at this
point but conditions can easily drop into IFR, especially if heavy
downpours occur over the terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR/TSRA late. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
Tue...Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 10-15G25 bcmg NW.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JLT
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
356 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

MNZ073>075-082>084-091>093-300900-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-
356 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Minnesota and southwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered storms this morning across far southern Minnesota will
be capable of producing large hail and gusty winds.

Later today, and into tonight, scattered storms will develop
across western Minnesota. Some of the these storms may be severe,
with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for
strong tornadoes, is possible late Monday afternoon and Monday
evening across Minnesota. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding are
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed later today across
western Minnesota.

MNZ041>045-047>070-076>078-085-WIZ014>016-023>028-300900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Steele-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-
Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
356 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...west central Minnesota...northwest
Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this morning, but severe
weather is not anticipated.

Later today, and into tonight, scattered storms will develop
across western Minnesota. Some of the these storms may be severe,
with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for
strong tornadoes, is possible late Monday afternoon and Monday
evening across Minnesota. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding are
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed later today across
western Minnesota.