Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...The start to a rather
soggy and unsettled pattern will begin tonight as an upper trough
progressing across Canada will split the upper ridge that had been
dominating our pattern. At the surface a weak boundary will slip
into the area from the north. Given our position stuck between a
rock and a hard place between both upper ridges, PWATS will be
allowed to soar into the 2 to 2.5 inch range along and ahead of
the boundary. Like most summer days, MLCAPE values will be
flirting with the 3000 J/kg range leading to ample instability for
thunderstorms to develop and current radar has already begun to
light up with storms. Overall, model soundings this afternoon show
relatively light shear around 20 knots but more than supportive
of some multicellular clusters. With some drier air aloft left
over from the upper ridge retreating westward, DCAPES will climb
into the 1000 to 1300 J/KG especially along and north of highway
84. Afternoon showers and storms will be possible like most
afternoons with a few strong to severe storms possible.

The bigger question comes later tonight around 10 pm through the
overnight hours as the front moves into the area. High-res model
guidance supports a line of storms moving south across Alabama and
reaching our area later tonight. While instability will begin to
decrease given the loss of diurnal heating, ample instability and
DCAPE will at least support a severe threat with damaging winds as
the main hazard. The main driver for the threat will be the fact
that it should be a more organized complex of storms, at least
initially, which tend to support maybe a higher chance of a strong
to severe wind gusts as the cold pool intensifies. As this line
moves towards the coast, the severe threat will decrease given the
continued loss of instability and likelihood for the outflow to
out pace any convection. Rain and storms will obviously still be
possible along the coast after midnight tonight. Given PWATS of
2 to 2.5 inches, heavy rainfall will also continue to be a hazard
but given the quicker motion of this line the heavy rainfall
threat might be minimized.

Sunday will just be downright soggy. There will likely be a brief
window early in the morning where we are dry in the wake of the
overnight storms; however, that will quickly end as showers
and eventually thunderstorms increase in coverage along the coast.
This thunderstorm activity is expected to move inland throughout
the afternoon. Like most afternoons a few storms could be strong
to severe but heavy rainfall will become a bigger issue on Sunday.
Given our position between the two upper ridges leading to almost
no flow aloft, the combination of 2 + inch PWATS and slow storm
motions will yield heavy rainers across the area. This will be
especially true for our flood prone coastal urban areas where
storms could easily lead to 2 to 3 inches in an hour.

The good news is with the increased rainfall the temperatures will
not be as bad as they have been the past few days. Expect highs to
only climb into the upper 80s to low 90s. Unfortunately, with the
increase in moisture we will remain with heat indices around 100
to 105 across the area. Lows tonight will continue to be near 80
degrees across the area. A low rip current risk will continue into
the weekend. BB/03

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...The stalled
boundary near the coast Sunday night will remain across the area
through the near term. Models continue to try to spin up a weak
sfc low along the boundary across the northern Gulf. The GFS takes
it slowly westward while the ECMWF meanders it offshore before
getting swept northeastward late in the week. The combination of
the quasi-stationary boundary along with a very tropical
atmosphere with precipitable water values over two inches will
maintain wet conditions across the area. If the low does develop,
then conditions would be even wetter on Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop offshore during the early morning
before spreading inland through the afternoon hours. While an
isolated strong/severe storm is possible, the main threats will
be very heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s on Monday and generally mid
80s on Tuesday due to the widespread clouds and rain expected. /13

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The area remains in
a broad weakness between two upper level ridges through Friday.
Meanwhile, a tropical atmosphere remains in place with
precipitable water values hovering around 2 inches through much
of the week. The combination of the deep, tropical moisture along
with the lingering weakness aloft will maintain a generally wet
pattern through much of the week. We will also have to continue to
watch the development and movement of the weak low over the
northern Gulf which could enhance rain potential and the resulting
flash flood threat. The broad trough lifts out late in the week
with upper level ridging trying to build in from the west. This
will likely return the area to more typical summer pattern.
Temperatures will be held in check much of the week due to the
widespread clouds and rain. /13

&&

.MARINE...No impacts expected in the marine through Monday; however,
we will be closely monitoring an area of low pressure developing
over the Gulf waters by midweek. This system will likely bring
increased winds and seas to the offshore waters. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible through next week. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>056-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

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