Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
315 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...The axis of a broad
upper ridge slowly evolves from being mostly oriented across the
northern Gulf to across the southeast states, while a series of
weak shortwaves slowly move through the upper ridge pattern. A
surface ridge which extends from the western Atlantic to across
the extreme northern Gulf will promote a light and primarily
southwesterly surface flow over the area. This pattern will
continue to have a weak steering flow resulting in slow moving
convection, and abundant Gulf moisture remains in place with
precipitable water values of mostly 2.0-2.3 inches. MLCAPE values
increase to around 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon and again on
Monday. DCAPE values this afternoon and also on Monday look to be
around 500 J/kg at best, a consequence of the rather moist
environment. Expect at least scattered to numerous showers and
storms to develop with daytime heating and the sea breeze each
day, with convective development aided by left over outflow
boundaries. May see a strong storm develop each day due to
precipitation loading, and nuisance type flooding due to slow
moving storms is possible as well. Highs today will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, then highs on Monday will be mostly in the
lower 90s. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the
mid to upper 70s at the coast with some patchy late night fog
possible. Heat index values each day tend to range from 98 to 104.
A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday Night Through Wednesday Night/...An upper
level ridge will build over the central CONUS and into the Deep
South through at least midweek. However, a few subtle shortwaves
will round the base of this feature (over the northern Gulf of
Mexico) through the early part of the week. Surface high pressure
will also maintain its hold over the region through the short term
period. In terms of moisture, guidance indicates that PWAT values
around 2 inches or more will stick around into midweek, but
slightly decrease from Wednesday into Thursday. This may cause
PoPs to be slightly less on Wednesday compared to earlier in the
week.

Overall, expecting daily chances of scattered to perhaps numerous
showers and storms, beginning over the Gulf waters during the
late night/early morning hours then translating onshore through
the day. With the loss of daytime heating, coverage will then
likely wane a bit through the mid to late evening hours. Some
stronger storms are possible, with instability values around
2000-2500 J/kg and bulk shear between 15-20 knots. However, DCAPE
values look to be a bit higher on Wednesday (700-1200 J/kg)
compared to Tuesday. Therefore, the wet microburst potential may
be a bit higher on Wednesday. In addition to this, nuisance
flooding is possible, especially from storms that train over the
same locations.

High temperatures will be similar to recent days, with upper 80s
at the beaches and lower 90s inland. Lows will be very muggy and
warm, remaining in the lower to mid 70s over inland areas and in
the upper 70s near the coast each night. /26

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper ridge will
begin to be flattened somewhat by a northern stream trough over
the Northeast by late week. This will become more prominent by
Friday, as a shortwave moves over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The
upper trough will also amplify down into the Southeast. Surface
high pressure will also continue over the region through late
week, but be pushed southward by an incoming cold front slated to
move over the Tennessee Valley and the Appalachians on Saturday.
Although moisture decreases slightly overnight Wednesday into
Thursday, PWATs will quickly return to be right around 2 inches by
Thursday afternoon. Elevated PWATs (2+ inches) will then persist
from late week through the weekend. Daily scattered showers and
storms are expected through Friday, and as in the short term, will
begin during the late night/early morning mainly over the Gulf
then shift to be over land during the day. With the previously
mentioned upper shortwave, surface front, and increased PWATs
expected from Friday through the weekend, PoPs will likely
increase to be scattered to numerous by the weekend.

Highs will generally be in the lower 90s over inland areas on
Thursday and Friday (upper 80s at the coast), with a few spots in
the west perhaps reaching the mid 90s on Friday. Heat indices on
Friday may need to be monitored, especially for areas west of the
Alabama River, as values may approach Heat Advisory criteria. As
rain chances increase through the weekend, highs will likely
moderate as well. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s by this time. Meanwhile, lows will be similar to the
short term - warm and muggy. Temperatures will merely drop into
the lower to mid 70s over inland locations and into the upper 70s
near the coast. /26

&&

.MARINE...Scattered showers and storms will be possible over
the marine area each day this week. Locally higher winds and
seas, frequent lightning, and waterspouts will be possible in and
around any of the convection. Otherwise, winds remain light and
mostly onshore through the early part of this week. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  91  74  91  74  89  75  91 /  20  70  30  70  20  50  10  40
Pensacola   77  90  77  89  77  89  78  89 /  20  60  30  60  20  40  10  40
Destin      78  90  78  88  79  87  80  88 /  20  60  30  50  20  40  10  40
Evergreen   71  92  73  91  73  91  73  93 /  20  70  30  60  20  40  10  40
Waynesboro  73  91  73  92  73  92  73  94 /  30  70  20  70  20  40  10  30
Camden      72  90  73  92  73  92  74  94 /  20  60  30  60  20  30  10  40
Crestview   73  91  73  92  73  91  74  92 /  20  70  30  60  20  40  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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