Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon and early evening with locally reduced ceilings and
visibilities. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Upper level high pressure centered
over the ArkLaTex will shift west over the Southern Plains as an
upper level trough off the East Coast deepens. Flow in the eastern
edge of the upper ridge transitions to a north-south, directing
upper level shortwave energy moving around the periphery of the
upper ridge south over the Southeast. A weakly organized surface low
located over the northern Gulf coast moves west of the forecast area
tonight, with a bit more organized deep layer flow off the Gulf
moving more moisture inland. Precipitable h20 values over the
forecast area and nearby are already high, in the 1.7"-1.9" range
according to the latest mesoanalysis from SPC. These values rise
into the 2.0"-2.3" range today into Sunday.

A weak upper level shortwave moves south over southeast Saturday.
With less subsidence from the upper ridge over eastern portions of
the forecast area, a better chance of rain is expected east of the
Alabama River. As the upper ridge shifts a bit farther west on
Sunday, another shortwave moves south across the southeast a bit
farther west, and for the forecast area, shifts the better chances
of rain farther west to over the majority of the area. With the high
precipitable h20 levels, there is some concern of locally heavy
rains causing ponding issues. With the recent dry spell the forecast
area has been in combined with the growing season well under way,
ponding of water in poor drainage areas is possible, but more
significant flooding is not expected at this time.

Temperatures will see a downward trend through the period as upper
subsidence decreases and and day to day increases in cloud cover
from the day's convection shutting off any significant heating. High
temperatures today are expected to range from the low 90s along the
eastern border of the forecast area to around 100 over Southeast
Mississippi. With central portions of the forecast area seeing a bit
more heating along with high moisture levels, Heat Indices are
expected to top out in the 108 to 112 degree range. A Heat Advisory
has again been issued for much of the area today. The downward trend
continues for Sunday, with temperatures expected to top out in the
low to mid 90s with heat index values topping out in the upper 90s
to low 100s. 16/13

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Monday night/...A rather
unsettled pattern will begin Sunday night into Monday and likely
persist into the extended. The upper ridge that has plagued us for
most of June has finally been beat back by a weak upper trough
moving across the Great Lakes. A weak boundary will work its way
into the southeast from the northwest providing a surface focus
for scattered to numerous storms on Monday. PWATS will remain
around 2 inches which is more than enough moisture across the
area. Expect the best chances to be focused over southeastern
Mississippi where the approaching boundary will be located and
the coastal sea-breeze. Modeled profiles are rather moist leaning
more towards a heavy rain possibility across the area with higher
convective coverage. While rain rates could be on the higher side,
any concerns would likely be limited to the usual suspects along
the coast where drainage is poor. By Monday night, storms will
slowly make their way to the coast as the boundary slowly stalls
across the highway 84 corridor.

Temperatures will finally be moderated by the increased cloud
cover and rather early start to storms. Highs will likely only
climb into the low to mid 90s keeping things a little more
seasonable. Now with dewpoints lingering in the 70s, heat
indices will still range around the 100 degree mark but duration
will likely be limited by any storms that do develop. Really its
just summer so nothing out of the ordinary. Lows will remain
disgusting with lows lingering in the low to mid 70s. BB/03

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The soggy pattern will
remain through the week as the stalled boundary drifts across the
area getting the grand tour of the northern Gulf Coast in summer.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout
the week as weak shortwaves pass through mainly zonal flow aloft.
At the surface, the boundary will all be washed out by mid-week;
however, steady southeasterly flow around the western side of a
surface high. This will keep plenty of low level moisture surging
into the area and PWATS staying at or above 2 inches. Expect a
rather active diurnal storm cycle with storms early over the
nearshore waters then spreading inland with the sea-breeze and
boundary collisions. While instability slowly increases, the
profiles are on the extremely moist side for this time of summer
leading to lower DCAPE and lower microburst potential. What it
does lead to is some heavy rainfall rates with storms possibly
approaching 2 to 3 inches per hour. While overall conditions
should be able to handle the rain, heavy rates could pose issues
to poor drainage areas and our usual flood problem spots.
Temperatures will continue to moderate around the low 90s with
all the convective coverage and cloud covers. Dewpoints will be on
the rise and could climb into the mid to upper 70s leading to
rather warm nights with lows in the upper 70s. BB/03

MARINE...No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near isolated thunderstorms. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>056-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

ALZ059-262-264-FLZ201-251845-
Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Baldwin,
southwestern Escambia Alabama and northwestern Escambia
Alabama Counties through 145 PM CDT...

At 1259 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Atmore, moving south at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bay Minette, Atmore, Century, Flomaton, McCullough, Bratt, I65 And CR
1, I65 And AL 21 and Poarch Creek Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8788 3123 8759 3110 8715 3096 8723
      3097 8723 3093 8726 3093 8729 3089 8728
      3085 8731 3083 8730 3063 8741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 019DEG 19KT 3093 8757

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
145 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

FLZ203-251930-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
145 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Santa Rosa
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 145 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 5 miles south of Jay, or 9 miles southeast of
Century, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8720 3093 8728 3094 8727 3093 8726
      3095 8724 3096 8724 3097 8723 3096 8723
      3096 8722 3099 8718 3100 8710 3077 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 347DEG 6KT 3088 8716

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
148 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

ALZ261-263-251930-
Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
148 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Mobile
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Mobile Regional Airport, or 6 miles west of
Midtown Mobile, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Tillmans Corner, Theodore,
Chickasaw, Semmes, I65 And I165, I65 And AL 158, I10 And I65 and
Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8835 3085 8833 3086 8812 3077 8803
      3070 8803 3072 8804 3065 8804 3065 8805
      3064 8806 3061 8805 3059 8806 3057 8809
      3054 8808
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 282DEG 7KT 3069 8824

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
200 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

FLZ201-203-251945-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
200 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Santa
Rosa and central Escambia Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Molino, or 8 miles north of Gonzalez, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Molino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 8740 3066 8740 3067 8741 3069 8744
      3070 8745 3070 8746 3073 8748 3084 8720
      3063 8711 3060 8739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 251DEG 12KT 3070 8731

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH