Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected today, potentially becoming numerous closer to the coast
in the afternoon. The showers and storms taper off to dry
conditions overnight except for lingering near the coast. MVFR
conditions will accompany the stronger showers and storms. VFR
conditions prevail otherwise, except for occasional MVFR ceilings.
Westerly winds near 5 knots become northwesterly 5 to 10 knots
over interior areas today with a westerly to southwesterly flow
around 10 knots near the coast. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...A broad upper over the
eastern states amplifies through the period and in the process
causes an upper ridge which extends across southern Louisiana to
the northeast Gulf to retreat westward. A surface low well off to
the northeast brings a weak frontal boundary southward into
central Mississippi/Alabama near midday which continues slowly to
near the coast by late this afternoon. A prefrontal surface trof
precedes the boundary, which also includes a weak outflow boundary
from previous convection currently located near the northern
periphery of the forecast area. This combination of surface
features progressing through much of the area will serve as
initiating mechanisms for convective development today, and have
gone with mostly chance pops along with likely pops mainly for
portions of the coastal counties. MLCAPE values this afternoon
range from near 1500 J/kg well inland to around 2500 J/kg over the
coastal counties, potentially around 3000 J/kg. Shear values will
be generally low, with 0-3 km bulk shear of 15-20 knots, though
with ample instability and mid level dry air present, expect
mainly pulse type strong to potentially severe convection to
develop by this afternoon and linger into the evening hours mainly
over the southern portion of the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has a marginal risk of severe storms generally over the
southern half of the area which lines up well with the higher
instability values. The frontal boundary lingers near the coast
overnight and will have pops tapering off to slight chance to
chance near the immediate coast.

A shortwave trof embedded with the amplifying larger scale upper
trof pattern advances across the lower/mid Mississippi River
valley Friday morning and into the forecast area Friday afternoon.
Ahead of this system, the weak frontal boundary near the coast is
expected to lift slowly northward, but it is not clear how far
northward into the forecast area the boundary will move, which
complicates anticipating where the best instability will be
present. The current thinking is that the boundary will take on a
northwest- southeast orientation and lift into the northwestern
portion of the forecast area Friday morning though remain over the
southeast portion through the afternoon hours. MLCAPE values
along/south of the boundary look to range from 1500-2500 J/kg
taper off to much lower values north of the boundary. Expect that
a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) may develop with the shortwave
trof and progress southeastward (following the orientation of the
frontal boundary) into about the western half of the forecast
area during the afternoon hours. For now have opted to go with
likely to categorical pops over roughly the western portion of the
area with chance pops further to the east. Shear values will
improve on Friday with 0-3 km bulk shear values of 25-40 knots and
0-3 km helicity values of 100-200 m2/s2 over about the western
third of the area by the afternoon hours while further to the east
lower values are expected. This environment will support a strong
to severe storm potential where the better instability and shear
values are present. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk
of severe storms for much of the area for Friday. Highs today will
be mostly 90 to 95 then highs on Friday tend to range from around
90 into the lower 90s. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s well
inland to the mid 70s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is
anticipated through Friday. /29

SHORT TERM /Friday Night Through Saturday Night/...At the start
of the short term, an upper level trough will be progressing over
the eastern portion of the country. A few subtle shortwaves will
move along the flow through the first part of the weekend as well.
This trough is expected to slowly progress over the east coast
through Sunday, with an upper ridge starting to nose into the
ArkLaTex region and into Alabama behind it by late Sunday
afternoon. The ridge will continue to build into the region and be
centered over the southeastern CONUS overnight Sunday into early
Monday morning. At the surface, a boundary will meander over the
coast through the weekend. This will maintain PWATs between 1.8 to
around 2 inches over much of the area through Saturday. Deep
layer moisture begins to decrease slightly by late weekend as the
upper trough shifts east.

Overall, the unsettled weather pattern will continue through the
first part of the weekend. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is
forecast to move over the ArkLaTex region on Friday, with remnants
(or the tail end of this feature) moving through the western
portion of our area Friday night. With elevated deep layer
moisture, sufficient instability, and bulk shear around 20 knots,
more showers and storms are then expected to develop over the
local area through the day on Saturday. As DCAPE values hover
around 1000 J/kg, a few storms may become strong with damaging
wind gusts the main threat. Shower and storm chances will continue
into Saturday evening, but gradually decrease as the best upper
level support shifts east. By Sunday afternoon, expecting merely
isolated chances of showers and storms.

Low temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s
north of I-10 and into the lower to mid 70s south of I-10 Friday
and Saturday nights. As the previously mentioned upper ridge
begins to build into the region, temperatures will be on the
increase. Highs Saturday will likely only top out in the upper 80s
to lower 90s due to the greater rain chances during the day. By
Sunday though, expecting highs in the lower 90s for most areas,
with upper 80s at the beaches. Sunday night will also be warm,
with lows ranging in the lower 70s along and north of Highway 84
to the upper 70s at the coast. Lastly, there is a LOW risk of rip
currents through Friday night; however, the risk will increase to
a MODERATE on Saturday. /26

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The aforementioned upper
ridge is here to stay through the extended term. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will build north up from the Gulf of Mexico
and over the southeastern CONUS through early week and persist
through the remainder of the period. Moisture will continue to be
elevated as well, especially with daily sea breeze formation along
the coast. Overall, expect daily chances of isolated showers and
storms during the afternoon hours (and perhaps lasting into the
early evening). The main story, however, will be heat indices
through the work week and especially by mid to late week. Dew
points will generally remain in the 70s and this, combined with
high temperatures in the mid 90s (some spots may potentially reach
the upper 90s), will result in heat indices generally between
100-105 degrees. Some areas could see heat indices upwards of
107-108 degrees by midweek, which is right around Heat Advisory
criteria. Therefore, to beat the heat and stay safe, make sure to
drink plenty of water, wear loose fitting clothes, protect
yourself from the sun with shade or sunglasses/a hat, and limit
time outdoors! /26

MARINE...A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow
prevails through Sunday, occasionally becoming moderate to strong
over the open Gulf waters which will require small craft exercise
caution headlines. A light to moderate southwesterly flow follows
for Monday. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

ALZ060-FLZ205-091800-
Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Covington and northeastern Okaloosa Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1219 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 4 miles east of Florala, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florala, Laurel Hill and Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3075 8639 3109 8661 3111 8623
      3109 8619 3099 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 304DEG 24KT 3098 8625

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
113 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

FLZ205-206-091915-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
113 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Okaloosa
County through 215 PM CDT...

At 113 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Baker, or 7 miles west of Crestview, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso and Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8648 3041 8651 3042 8649 3041 8645
      3045 8642 3050 8645 3051 8642 3051 8645
      3048 8647 3052 8650 3047 8648 3045 8654
      3072 8679 3086 8666 3067 8639 3045 8639
      3038 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 314DEG 21KT 3076 8670

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JLH