Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
349 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...A mainly south to southeast
flow will continue over the area as surface high pressure remains
off the southeast Atlantic coast. An upper ridge extends from
Coastal Carolina to eastern and southern Texas, while a weakening
upper trough over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle
will dissipate overnight. The combination of this upper trough, the
increasing deep layer moisture and daytime heating has resulted to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the coast and
southeast Mississippi. MLCAPE values have climbed to between 1500-
2200 J/Kg, and some of the stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
gusty surface winds and hail up to one inch. These scattered showers
and thunderstorms will move inland with the seabreeze into the
evening, and should dissipate by mid evening as the daytime heating
diminishes. The upper ridge to the northwest of our area will slowly
migrate closer to the forecast area on Wednesday bringing with it
slightly drier air, with less coverage (20 percent) of the showers
and thunderstorms occurring Wednesday afternoon. Lows tonight should
range from 65 to 70 degrees inland locations and from 70 to 75
degrees along the coast. High temps Wednesday should be in the lower
90s inland, with mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast. /22

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Northeasterly
flow aloft will remain in place for the first half of the short term
as our region remains between an upper-level ridge to our west and
an upper low to our east. By Thursday evening, flow aloft will
transition back to westerly to northwesterly as an upper-level
trough traverses the northern half of the US. This trough
effectively flattens and shunts the upper ridge southwestward
towards Mexico and absorbs the upper low over the Western Atlantic.
Several shortwaves, embedded within the flow aloft, will begin
pushing across the area, starting Thursday evening and through the
day on Friday. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will begin
approaching our region Thursday afternoon. This front will slowly
drift towards the coast through Friday evening before dissipating.
PWAT values of 1.3 to 1.5 inches Thursday morning will increase to
around 1.6 to 1.9 inches by the evening (with locally higher amounts
closer to 2 inches) along and ahead of the boundary.

With the first shortwave approaching and moving overhead, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form Thursday afternoon,
initially forming off the sea breeze boundary. Ample instability
will also be in place due to steep low-level lapse rates and a stout
dry layer above 700mb. Although shear will remain minimal, DCAPEs of
over 1000 J/kg suggest that a few storms may be capable of producing
gusty downdraft winds and small hail. By the evening hours, the
best coverage looks to shift more towards our northwestern
counties as the front enters the region and moisture values
increase. Precip may linger into the overnight hours before
briefly drying out Friday morning (due to the shortwave exiting
our region). Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
again on Friday afternoon as a second shortwave approaches and
passes over the region. The focus will likely be south of Highway
84 and north of the immediate coast, where the sea breeze and
frontal boundaries interact. Similar to Thursday, steep low level
lapse rates and dry air aloft will give way to ample instability,
however, with higher PWAT values in place, the dry layer may not
be as prominent. Still, though, cannot rule out one or two
stronger storms that are capable of producing gusty winds.

Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices
approaching the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in some spots. Lows
for Wednesday and Thursday nights will be in the upper 60s inland to
low to mid 70s near the coast. With the proximity of the front,
temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees lower. Highs on Friday
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region, with lows
Friday night in the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s remaining along
the immediate coast. Lastly, a MODERATE Risk of rip currents remains
in place through the short term period. /96

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Weak westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through much of the period,
with upper-level ridging remaining in place over Mexico and upper-
level troughing over the Great Lakes. For Saturday, a tropical
disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, which NHC currently has
a 70% chance of developing over the next 5 days, is expected to pull
northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula/Florida Straits region
and into the Western Atlantic. Although not expecting this system to
directly impact our region, cyclonic flow around this disturbance
will help bring northerly surface winds to our region through Sunday
morning, allowing for some drier air to advect in. As the system
continues to lift northeast, southerly winds return to the region by
Sunday afternoon, allowing for moisture to quickly surge back in.
With the increase in moisture and the approach of a shortwave aloft,
cannot rule out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing
on Sunday. Monday will be fairly similar to Sunday in that ample
moisture will be in place and another shortwave pushes across the
area. Latest guidance suggests that the shortwave's axis seems to
pass overhead by the late morning hours, allowing for the best
crossover of moisture, lift, and instability to occur to the east of
our region. With that being said, still maintained a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms for Monday afternoon to account for
timing uncertainties and for possible sea breeze development. By
Tuesday, drier weather looks to return as the upper ridge over
Mexico attempts to build back into our region. Highs will generally
be in the low to mid 90s, with upper 80s along the immediate coast.
Lows will be in the upper 60s for interior regions to low to mid 70s
closer to the coast. /96

&&

.MARINE...No significant impacts nor advisories are anticipated
through Friday. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>