Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
712 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
overspread the area through the period. Brief lowerings in
visibilities and ceilings are expected in some of the heavier
storms. Outside of storms Low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings should
prevail through the period. South to southeasterly winds of
around 10 to 15kts with gusts closer to 20 knots are expected
today with higher winds in and around thunderstorms. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/...A highly
amplified and unusually deep upper-level trough for this time of
year, currently located over the central US, will continue its
slow eastward progression through the period. Several shortwaves
continue to round the base of this trough, one of which extends
over Louisiana/Mississippi and into the northern Gulf. This
shortwave is responsible for the ongoing early morning convection
across southeast MS and southwest AL. Throughout the day today,
very high deep-layer moisture (PWATs around 1.8 to 2.0 inches),
sufficient instability (MLCAPEs around 1500 to 2000 J/kg), and the
approach/passage of another shortwave, will allow for widespread
showers and thunderstorms to continue developing and pushing
across our area. Additionally, current VAD profiles at KMOB have
shear values of around 30kts and SRH values of 100-150 m2/s2. With
850mb winds around 25-30kts and decent veering of the winds with
height, model soundings suggest that these values will remain in
place throughout the day today, which could lead to the
organization of a few strong to severe storms. Primary hazards
with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail, but with
decent shear/helicity values in place, cannot rule out a few brief
tornadoes.

The upper-level trough forms into a large upper low over the
Kansas/Missouri region. The low will barrel its way eastward,
approaching the western Ohio River Valley by late Thursday night. At
the surface, a complex low pressure system over Kansas occludes and
sends forth a cold front. The front will approach our region on
Thursday, passing overhead Thursday evening, and clearing the area
by early Friday morning. After a brief lull in activity between late
Wednesday evening into the first few hours of early Thursday morning
(due to being in between shortwaves), activity will pick up once
again in the pre-dawn hours, with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected to move across the region through the
afternoon. Similar to Wednesday, PWATs remain very high, between 1.8
to 2.0 inches. As far as instability, which has been the
questionable factor over the past few day, recent mode runs now
suggest that the environment may be able to quickly recover
overnight Wednesday, with MLCAPEs rising back into 1500-2000 J/kg
range a little after midnight. With the approach of the eastern
periphery of the upper trough and a developing 40-45kt LLJ, shear
values will be on the increase, with 0-1km bulk shear values
approaching 30kts and 0-6km values approaching 40kts. 0-1km SRH
values also look to increase to around 200-250 m2/s2. With the best
differential divergence entering the region, strong to severe storms
will once again be possible during the morning hours, with possible
hazards being damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. SPC
currently has the entire region outlooked in a MARGINAL Risk of
severe weather for Thursday, however, would not be surprised if the
risk level increases if confidence in coverage increases. Storms,
some of which could be strong, will continue into the mid to late
afternoon hours with coverage slowly decreasing from west to east by
the evening hours as the cold front pushes through the area.

In addition to the severe risk, confidence continues to increase
that multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing very
heavy rainfall and an increased threat of flash flooding will impact
much of our forecast area through Thursday afternoon. A very moist
south to southwest flow aloft will persist across our area today and
tonight in advance of the upper level low and associated deep trough
that will slowly progress eastward across the central and southern
Plains. A surge of deep layer moisture with associated rich
precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches will spread
across much of our region through Thursday afternoon. We already
have convective bands continuously developing and moving northward
from the northern Gulf and into much of the region early this
morning, with the heaviest bands focused across southern portions of
southeast MS, far southwest AL, and near Pensacola in the western FL
panhandle. Many locations have received between 2-4 inches of rain
the past few days, with some locations in southern MS and far
southwest AL locally receiving in excess of 6 inches. Additional
multiple rounds of showers/storms developing within the moist and
unstable environment will support additional rainfall amounts of at
least 3-5 inches of rainfall across much of our region, with some
locations possibly receiving locally over 6-8 inches. We have issued
a Flash Flood Watch for all but our far northern counties, where
confidence was highest in heavy rainfall and flooding potential. We
will need to closely watch areas from southern portions of southeast
MS and across Mobile/Baldwin counties and possibly in the FL
panhandle, where several inches of rainfall could lead to an
increased and potentially more significant flash flooding potential
through Thursday.

As far as other hazards, continued strong onshore flow will allow
for an increase in surf heights to around 6 feet. Due to this, a
High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory will be in effect
through the near term period. Additionally, a brief period of minor
coastal flooding is  possible over northern Mobile Bay, especially
around the time of high tide Thursday morning. We will continue to
monitor trends in future updates, as a Coastal Flood Advisory may
become necessary if confidence increases.

Temperatures across the region will remain mild, with highs in the
low to mid 80s and lows Wednesday night ranging from the mid 60s
north to low 70s along the coast. After the front passes Thursday
night, lows will range from the upper 50s to low 60s north and west
of the I-65 corridor, and low to mid 60s for areas south and east.
/96 /21

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Friday night/...Dry conditions will
return to the region on Friday in the wake of the cold front which
pushed through Thursday night. Northwesterly flow aloft, due to a
building ridge over the central US, and high pressure over the
south-central US will allow for drier air to filter in, with
PWATs dropping below an inch. Highs on Friday will be in the low
to mid 80s. Lows Friday night range from the upper 50s north to
low to mid 60s south. /96

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...An upper trof over the
eastern states weakens and lifts well off to the northeast through
the period as an upper ridge builds over the eastern states.  An
occluded surface low located near the Ohio/Mississippi River
confluence weakens along with the parent upper trof and lifts off to
the northeast, with a surface ridge meanwhile building into the
region on Saturday and eventually becoming established over the
eastern states. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through
Monday then have opted to return slight chance pops to the forecast
for Tuesday afternoon as deep layer moisture improves over the
area. A warming trend occurs through the period, with highs on
Saturday in the lower to mid 80s trending to the upper 80s to
lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. /29

MARINE...A moderate to strong southeasterly flow will be in
place for Wednesday. Winds will become southerly to southwesterly
on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. With
elevated winds of around 20 to 25kts, a Small Craft Advisory will
go into effect this morning lasting through Thursday afternoon
for our Gulf waters, southern Mobile Bay, and Mississippi Sound.
Exercise caution headlines are in place for our remaining bays and
sounds. Winds switch to westerly Thursday night and decrease back
to moderate as the front moves through the area. High coverage of
showers and storms is expected Wednesday through Thursday.
Elevated seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue through Thursday night
before lowering slightly by Friday. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ALZ052-053-055-056-059-
     060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
239 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

MSZ067-075-076-252030-
Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
239 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Perry,
western Wayne and northwestern Greene Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles west of
Heidelberg to 4 miles southeast of Macedonia. Movement was northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Richton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8914 3143 8894 3182 8894 3183 8879
      3131 8878 3118 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 204DEG 26KT 3190 8905 3133 8913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
305 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

MSZ075-078-252045-
Stone MS-Perry MS-
305 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Perry
and Stone Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles west of
Poplarville to 11 miles northeast of Mcneil to 17 miles west of
McHenry to 8 miles north of Kiln. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Perkinston and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8934 3091 8914 3120 8914 3114 8906
      3106 8899 3068 8896 3068 8924 3065 8924
      3065 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 224DEG 30KT 3085 8961 3078 8950 3070 8943 3054
8942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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