Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1131 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...Showers and storms will affect the area overnight
then shift east of the area Wednesday morning except for scattered
showers and few embedded storms persisting near the coast.
Coverage of precipitation increases Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening mainly over the coastal counties with isolated
to scattered coverage of showers expected further inland. IFR to
LIFR conditions prevail overnight then improve to MVFR conditions
on Wednesday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1031 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A rather large and broad
upper trof pattern over much of the CONUS remains essentially
intact through Thursday, maintaining a southwesterly flow aloft
over the forecast area. Within this pattern, a well defined
shortwave trof currently over the southern/central Plains ejects
off across the interior eastern states through Wednesday while a
series of lesser shortwaves move across the forecast area mainly
through Wednesday night. A slow moving frontal boundary currently
located from extreme southeast Louisiana to coastal Alabama into
extreme south central Alabama will play an important role through
the period in determining the potential for severe weather
overnight into Wednesday morning. In response to the well defined
shortwave trof passing north of the region, the frontal boundary
changes orientation overnight, becoming aligned just west of the
I-65 corridor by 06Z then pushing eastward, with the boundary
exiting the forecast area near 15Z. MLCAPE values along and east
of the frontal boundary look to increase to 500-1500 J/kg later
this evening with similar values persisting until the front exits
the area Wednesday morning. Within the warm sector, expect 0-1 km
helicity values of 100-200 m2/s2 along with 0-3 km bulk shear
values of 30-40 knots. As a series of shortwaves advances into and
then across the area, associated convection interacts with the
frontal boundary, and with the more favorable shear within its
proximity and in the warm sector, this may allow for strong to
possibly severe storm development. The Storm Prediction Center has
a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms overnight into
Wednesday morning spanning roughly where the frontal boundary will
traverse the forecast area for this potential severe storm
development. After exiting the forecast area Wednesday morning,
the frontal boundary stalls from near the central Florida
panhandle into the north central Gulf and remains close to this
position through Thursday. This allows for a light northerly flow
to prevail over the forecast area in the wake of the front and
this is also expected to preclude the potential for strong storm
development for the remainder of the period.  Have continued with
categorical pops overnight, then pops taper off Wednesday morning
to dry conditions over interior areas with chance to likely pops
near the coast. Rain chances increase especially along and east of
I-65 Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as a stronger
series of shortwaves progress across the region, then dry
conditions develop for the entire area on Thursday as the series
of shortwaves exit to the east leaving subsidence over the area.
Lows tonight range from the mid 40s to lower 50s west of I-65,
with warmer overnight lows up to the lower 60s east of I-65.
Highs on Wednesday range from the upper 50s to mid 60s along and
west of I-65 and 65 to 70 east of I-65. Lows Wednesday night range
from the 40s along and west of I-65 to the lower to mid 50s east
of I-65. Highs on Thursday range from around 70 well inland to the
lower 70s elsewhere. A high risk of rip currents tonight will be
followed by a moderate risk on Wednesday and a low risk on
Thursday. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ635-636-655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1255 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

ALZ055-059-262-090745-
Baldwin Inland AL-Monroe AL-Escambia AL-
1255 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Monroe,
north central Baldwin and northwestern Escambia Counties through 145
AM CST...

At 1255 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Calvert, or 19 miles north of Bay Minette, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McCullough, Uriah, I65 And AL 21 and Poarch Creek Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 8749 3109 8746 3109 8785 3117 8787
      3118 8785 3119 8787 3121 8787 3120 8785
      3123 8786 3123 8784 3124 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 232DEG 34KT 3116 8781

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

ALZ054-090815-
Wilcox AL-
133 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Wilcox
County through 215 AM CST...

At 132 AM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Yellow Bluff, or 11 miles
east of Thomasville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Camden and Yellow Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3212 8726 3208 8719 3205 8718 3205 8686
      3183 8738 3183 8761 3187 8762 3188 8765
      3191 8767 3214 8725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 240DEG 49KT 3188 8754

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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