Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1132 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday morning, then
MVFR to IFR ceilings gradually spread from east to west across
much of the area through Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered
showers will also develop over south central Alabama and the
western Florida panhandle during the afternoon hours, with
coverage potentially increasing during the evening over the
easternmost portion of the area. Northeast winds of mainly 5 to 10
knots overnight (potentially 10-15 near the coast of the western
Florida panhandle) increase to 10 to 20 knots on Thursday, with
higher gusts. Low level wind shear with an easterly flow of 40
knots at 2 kft is possible overnight. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

VFR conditions prevail through Thursday morning, then IFR to MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop mainly over south central
Alabama and portions of the western Florida panhandle in the
afternoon. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots overnight increase to 10
to 15 knots on Thursday, potentially 15-20 knots near the coast of
the western Florida panhandle in the afternoon. An easterly low
level wind shear of 40-45 knots near 2 kft is possible over much
of the area overnight. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 412 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered about 55 miles east of Grand
Bahama Island per the 4 PM EST NHC Advisory this afternoon and is
forecast to approach the east coast of FL through late tonight. A
deep layer ridge of high pressure will meanwhile continue to
extend from the Mid-Atlantic states to the northern and
northwestern Gulf Coast states through late tonight. A deep layer
dry airmass will remain in place over our forecast area through
late tonight, with precipitable water values only expected to
improve to 0.6-0.7" over our western zones and up to around 1"
over our eastern counties by early Thursday morning. A dry
forecast will continue through the overnight hours. Ridging over
the area will result in continued northeasterly surface flow
overnight and the cool/dry airmass will allow for overnight low
temperatures to fall to around 50 degrees or the lower 50s along
and west of the I-65 corridor and in the mid 50s to around 60 over
eastern and coastal portions of our CWA.

Nicole is forecast to cross the FL peninsula on Thursday and
gradually turn more northwest to north and move across northern FL
and eventually into southern and central GA late Thursday into early
Friday morning. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase across
south central AL and the western FL panhandle along the western
periphery of Nicole Thursday afternoon into late Thursday night,
where PWATs trend higher to between 1.5 to near 2 inches during this
time frame. Bands of rain showers are expected to develop into south
central and southwest AL and the western FL panhandle starting mid
to late Thursday afternoon and continuing into late Thursday night
along the western periphery of the lifting cyclone. POPs remain
highest (40-60%) across far eastern portions of our area, and
decrease to 20-30% as you go westward into portions of southwest AL.
Rainfall amounts are generally expected to remain less than 1 inch
across south central AL and the western FL panhandle. Dry weather
should continue into southeast MS and far southwest AL. Northerly
winds should increase to 10-20 mph across interior southwest and
south central AL on Thursday and perhaps as high as 15-25 mph with a
few gusts up to 30-35 mph near the immediate coast during the day
Thursday. Highs on Thursday should only reach into the 70s across
the region while lows Thursday night range from the upper 50s to mid
60s. A MODERATE rip current risk will continue along area beaches
through Friday night. /21

SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 412 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

At the start of the short term, Tropical Storm Nicole, or
whatever is left of it, will be over Georgia/the Carolinas and
quickly lifting northeastward away from our region. A large
longwave trough over the central US, along with an associated
strong cold front at the surface, will continue to progress
eastward throughout the period. Subsidence in the wake of Nicole
should help to keep rain chances low as the front pushes through
Friday night into Saturday morning, however, cannot rule out a few
isolated showers over our northwestern areas. Much colder air
will quickly start to advect in from the north after the front
passes. Deep layer dry air will arrive a little later, once the
upper trough axis passes overhead Saturday evening.

After a warm and mainly sunny day on Friday, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s, Saturday will turn cloudy and much cooler with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s west of I-65 to upper 60s to
low 70s for areas east. Lows will also plummet from the 50s Friday
night to the 30s and lower 40s for Saturday night. A MODERATE risk
of rip currents on Friday will become a LOW risk by Saturday. /96

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

The longwave trough, which passed overhead at the end of the
short term, will quickly lift to the northeast throughout the day
on Sunday, giving way to zonal flow aloft. By Monday night into
Tuesday, models have come into better agreement that a stout
shortwave will quickly push across the south central US and eject
northeastward after passing the ArkLaTex region. At the surface,
strong high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the US will
shift northward as a low attempts to develop over the northwestern
Gulf in association with the upper shortwave. This low should
push eastward/northeastward as the shortwave lifts away from the
region. After it passes, high pressure builds into the region from
the south central US on Wednesday.

Dry conditions will be in place for Sunday as high pressure remains
in control of the area and PWATs remain below 0.25 inches. With the
approach of the shortwave, PWATs will begin to quickly increase
throughout the day on Monday as the mid to upper levels start to
moisten (low level moisture will be a little slower to return due to
the strong high to the north). At this time, the timeframe where our
region may see the greatest impacts from the approaching shortwave
will be Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Latest guidance
suggests that our region will be under a zone of strong diffluence
aloft and in the right entrance region of an upper-level jet that
develops due to the ejecting upper trough. Additionally, a strong
850mb LLJ (around 40 to 50kts) may also develop over
Mississippi/Alabama, helping to contribute to strong shear values
and large, looping hodographs (as per latest model forecast
soundings). However, the biggest question will be the location and
trajectory of the surface low. If the low remains offshore and/or
moves inland to the east of our region, our region will remain in
the cold sector of the low, likely giving way to an overrunning rain
event, despite the favorable dynamics overhead. On the other hand,
if the low moves inland to the west of the region, we would be
placed in the warm sector of the low, allowing for an increase in
low level moisture, temperatures, and thus, instability. With the
dynamics overhead, this could lead to favorable conditions for the
development of strong to severe thunderstorms. We will continue to
monitor trends over the coming days. After this system passes, dry
conditions will return to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

Northeasterly winds are expected to increase to 15-25 knots with
a few higher gusts over the Gulf marine zones this evening through
late tonight then turn northerly to northwesterly and increase to
20-25 knots (and perhaps a little higher over our eastern Gulf
zones) Thursday afternoon into late Thursday night as Nicole lifts
northward across the FL peninsula and into GA. Seas mainly range
from 3-6 feet offshore (perhaps around 7 feet well offshore). A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Gulf marine zones
through late Thursday night. Exercise Caution headlines have been
added to some area bays and sounds. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      52  77  59  80  54  64  38  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pensacola   59  77  64  80  59  71  43  63 /   0  20  20   0   0  10   0   0
Destin      63  77  67  79  63  75  47  65 /   0  40  40   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   53  75  61  77  53  65  36  60 /   0  20  30   0   0  10   0   0
Waynesboro  50  74  58  77  48  58  33  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  10   0   0
Camden      51  72  60  75  50  58  34  56 /   0  10  20   0  10  10   0   0
Crestview   54  75  63  80  55  72  40  63 /   0  30  40   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

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