Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
644 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions prevail over the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. North to northeasterly winds will increase to around 15
knots today with gusts around 20 knots. These winds may ease
briefly this evening, before increasing again late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Low Level wind shear of 40 to 45 knots at
2000 feet may also develop across much of the area by 06z tonight
and continue through early Wednesday morning. /14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The cold front that moved through yesterday has pushed
well offshore as of this morning with drier and cooler air advecting
into the area. Current temperatures range from the mid 50s over far
interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama to the mid and
lower 60s along southern portions of the area. These temperatures
combined with dew points in the upper 40s and lower 50s are allowing
for very pleasant conditions.

As we head into the remainder of the day and into Wednesday,
northerly to northeasterly surface flow will continue to advect very
dry air into the region. Precipitable water values will be around
0.5 inches or less with minimum relative humidities in the lower to
mid 20 percent range and perhaps even into the upper teens. A
similar pattern will be in place across the area on Wednesday.
Additionally, the pressure gradient across the local area will begin
to increase as Hurricane Ian emerges into southeastern Gulf today.
With the pressure gradient tightening, am expecting winds to
increase today and especially into Wednesday, with the strongest
winds over the marine portion of the forecast

While Hurricane Ian will generally stay east of our area, we will
see increased swell leading to high surf heights and dangerous rip
currents. A MODERATE risk of rip currents is expected tonight and
will increase to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning Wednesday
morning and continuing through Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for the nearshore Bays and Sounds through 6pm Thursday
and especially for the offshore waters through late Friday night.
With the strength of mainly the wind gusts over the offshore zones,
will likely need to upgrade at later time a higher level WWA. A wind
advisory may also be needed for areas along and south of I-10
Wednesday as the higher magnitude winds stretch inland. /14

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 20222

Hurricane Ian is forecast to make landfall in the west-central
Florida peninsula late Wednesday night, and continue to move
northward up the northern peninsula through the remainder of the
short term. North to northeasterly winds are expected through the
period, along with keeping the forecast area under cooler and
drier conditions. As Ian moves closer to the Florida coast, a far
outer rainband will expected to spread northwestward over areas
southeast of I-65 Thursday night.

With the northerly winds bringing good mixing of cooler air south
through the Short Term, temperatures below seasonal norms are
expected. Low temperatures Wednesday night drop into the low 50s
inland to near 60 along the coast. High temperatures Thursday are
expected to range from 75 to 80 degrees. Low temperatures rebound
a bit Thursday night with lows about 2 degrees warmer. /16 /22

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

As far as PoP chances are concerned, some uncertainty still exists
mainly on Friday due to the approach of Ian off to our east. For
now, given our area remains of the far western fringe of Ian, will
continue to advertise slight chance to chance pops for much of
the area on Friday, however, our area could end up dry and fairly
quiet on Friday. Moving forward, PoP chances begin to diminish
through the rest of the period, but how quickly they do is still
dependent on how quickly the remnants of Ian moves further away
from the region. The further away Ian is could result in dry
conditions over the area or allow for some mainly isolated PoP
chances to be possible. For now, have continue to stick with the
blended approach with slight chance to some chance pops for much
of the area on Saturday then slight chance pops follow for Sunday
and Monday. Breezy to potentially windy conditions are possible
Friday over much of the coastal counties and south central Alabama
then are expected to gradually subside on Friday night. A HIGH
risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Friday before
subsiding. JEH/88

MARINE...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

A strong offshore offshore flow will occur today becoming very
strong late tonight and Wednesday as Hurricane Ian moves northward
over the eastern Gulf. Gusts to and greater than gale force are
likely Wednesday through Friday morning, and will likely need to
be upgraded at later time a higher level WWA. The strong winds
will bring seas building to 8 to 12 feet by midweek. /14

FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

With the breezy conditions and very dry airmass in place, have
decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning
which is in effect along and south of a line from Wiggins, MS to
Andalusia, AL from 11am thru 7pm today, and from 11am thru 7pm
Wednesday across the entire region. SPC has our area under a
Critical Fire weather risk on Wednesday due to winds expected to
increase further as the gradient strengthens to the west of Ian
helping to maintain a very dry air mass. We will also have to
watch for potential fire weather concerns going into Thursday as
well as we move forward. JEH/88 /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  58  81  56  81  59  81  62 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  20  20
Pensacola   85  62  81  60  81  64  81  65 /   0   0   0   0  10  20  30  30
Destin      87  65  83  64  81  67  79  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  30  40  40
Evergreen   80  52  78  50  78  56  77  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  20  30  30
Waynesboro  77  55  77  52  75  54  77  58 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  20
Camden      77  55  76  53  76  56  75  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  20  30
Crestview   83  58  81  59  78  60  76  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  30  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ059-060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late Friday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late Friday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

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