Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1130 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE...Not much change with regard to overall forecast
reasoning today. A southwesterly mid to upper level flow pattern is
expected to continue today. Shortwave impulses embedded within this
flow will translate across our region through this afternoon, while
deep layer moisture also increases across most of our forecast area
through the day. The latest near term forecast guidance indicates
that precipitable water values will increase to around 1.7-1.9
inches along coastal portions of our area this afternoon. A drier
airmass over our interior northwest counties this morning should
gradually lift northeastward, with PWATs gradually improving to
around 1.4-1.6 inches through the afternoon. Radar continues to show
isolated to scattered showers developing across central and southern
portions of the CWA within the increasingly moist environment late
this morning. The atmosphere is already quite unstable across our
region late this morning as temperatures have warmed well into the
80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s inland and even in the
mid to upper 70s along the coastal interface. MLCAPE values are
ranging between 2500-3500 J/KG late this morning per SPC mesoscale
analysis.

The combination of the strong daytime heating, ample instability,
plentiful moisture, and ascent provided by both low level moisture
convergence along the seabreeze and/or other remnant outflow
boundaries, as well as with some diffluence/divergence aloft with
shortwave troughs moving across the region should aid in the
continued development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area through the course of the
afternoon. The strong instability, along with steep low level lapse
rates, and drier air aloft contributing to DCAPE values in excess of
1000 J/KG will favor localized damaging downburst winds with
convection that develops this afternoon. Small to marginally severe
hail also cannot be ruled out with the stronger updrafts. Also some
potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts with the stronger
storms this afternoon. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered to potentially numerous showers and
storms today taper off to isolated to scattered coverage tonight
then increase in coverage Sunday morning.  MVFR conditions will
accompany the stronger showers and storms through the period.
Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots this afternoon become a mainly light
southeasterly flow tonight then return to a southerly flow at 5 to
10 knots Sunday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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