Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper trof over much of
the eastern states gradually expands westward through the period,
and in the process upper ridging over the south central states
retreats westward. A weak frontal boundary currently stalled along
the coast moves into the marine area tonight then drifts back
into the coastal counties on Wednesday. This pattern promotes a
deep layer northwesterly steering flow within which a series of
shortwaves progress across the area which will aid in convective
development along with daytime heating and the frontal boundary
near the coast. Despite the northwesterly deep layer flow pattern,
deep layer moisture will persist through the near term with PWATs
near 2 inches. Inland convection will develop by mid-afternoon,
and maintained the slight chance to chance pops for much of the
area by late this afternoon. A chance to good chance pops follow
for the entire area Wednesday afternoon as the couple of upper
impulses moving in the northwest flow pass over the area. Locally
numerous showers and thunderstorms may be possible across inland
portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.

While shear values remain low through the period, MLCAPE values
increase to 2200-3200 J/kg over the western half of the forecast
area and across the coastal counties by mid afternoon, slightly
lower across our northeast quadrant. MLCAPE values on Wednesday
typically range from 1500-2500 J/kg over the entire area, values
as high as 3200 J/kg across the coastal counties. Mid level dry
air was seen in model soundings for today and also on Wednesday
which will promote downdraft production. These conditions will
support the potential for strong to possibly a couple of severe
storms, and the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of
severe over roughly the western two thirds of the area for today
then over the entire area on Wednesday. Heat index values around
108 are expected this afternoon across southeast Mississippi,
much of southwest Alabama and much of the western Florida
Panhandle, and a Heat Advisory for these areas remain in effect
until 6 PM CDT. May need another Heat Advisory for this general
area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland
to the upper 70s near the coast. Highs Wednesday will be in the
lower to mid 90s. A low risk of rip currents through tonight is
followed by a moderate risk on Wednesday. /29 /22

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions prevail throughout the day into
tonight across the forecast area. Scattered thunderstorms may
develop mid to late afternoon, lingering into the first half of
the evening. Expect reductions in ceiling and visibility
underneath any showers or storms. Storms may be on the stronger
side capable of producing strong, variable wind gusts. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

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