Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Mobile, AL

987 
WWUS54 KMOB 241817
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
117 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

ALC003-241827-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-220724T1830Z/
Baldwin AL-
117 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3052 8774 3057 8786 3088 8779 3073 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 209DEG 30KT 3087 8759 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A very moist airmass was noted
across the forecast area and nearby, with precipitable h2o values in
the 2"-2.2" range. An upper level shortwave trough was moving south
over the Southeast on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge
stretching east from over the Southern Plains. A band of showers and
thunderstorms was stretching north along and west of the Alabama
River at noontime, and am expecting these to propagate away from
this band as the afternoon progresses. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible, with MLCapes in the 2500-3000J/kg range
and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range. Pulse type strong to
marginally severe storms are expected, with weak wind shear across
the forecast area and the soupy airmass limiting any dry layers in
the mid and upper levels.

Tonight through Monday, any residual convection around in the
evening will quickly lessen as any instability left over from the
day quickly lessens. The upper ridge begins to shift east, becoming
centered over the Lower/Mid Mississippi River juncture by Monday
evening. For tonight, the soupy airmass in combination with upper
subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep low temperatures
tonight around to a bit above seasonal norms. Lower to mid 70s
expected inland, mid to upper 70s along the coast expected.

Am expecting the current pattern of convection forming south of the
coast towards sunrise Monday, with abundant low level instability
over the warm Gulf waters, then developing inland during the morning
hours. A shortwave trough moving west over/along the northern Gulf
coast will help to again create a wet day for the forecast area. A
few strong to marginally severe storms are again possible. The soupy
airmass will help to make any stronger thunderstorm an efficient
rainer, with ponding of water in poor drainage areas possible. With
good heating in the morning and early afternoon before thunderstorm
outflow/clouds cool things off, temperatures are expected to top out
around to a bit below seasonal norms. High temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s expected.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast
area, with local low end MVFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms blooming across the area at 17z. The greatest
concentration was across along and west of the Alabama River. Am
expecting these storms to redevelop east and west this afternoon as
outflows propagate away from the storms, with movement of these
storms very slow. This convection will ease in the evening hours,
then redevelop south of the coast late tonight into Monday morning.
Conditions are expected to become a general VFR overnight, with very
isolated fog development bringing low end MVFR VSBYs. Monday morning
will see the same pattern as today, with convection developing
inland in the mid to late morning hours.
/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob