Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
357 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...The pattern remains
largely unsettled today through Friday. An upper level ridge
persists over the southwestern CONUS with another upper ridge over
the western Atlantic, essentially keeping the local area within a
weak flow pattern aloft. A surface boundary lingers over the
coastal areas with a secondary re-enforcing outflow boundary
surging southward into the area. PWATs of 2.0-2.3 inches in
combination with increased ascent along the boundaries will
support showers and storms along the coast and over interior
Alabama. Current radar over the past hour or so has certainly lit
up a little more and this is only expected to continue into the
afternoon. Similar to yesterday, heavy rain and localized flash
flooding are the main concerns as rain rates could exceed 2 inches
per hour. The heaviest rain will likely be confined to the coast
where boundaries may collide with richer moisture sources and
given locations across this area have picked up several rounds of
rain prior it will not take storms long to get some large puddles
going. A few gusty downdrafts can not be ruled out in any of the
stronger storms this afternoon.

By Friday, the upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS begins to
expand to the east somewhat, which brings slightly drier air into
the region (especially the northwestern portion of the area).
PWATs decrease to around 1.4-1.6 inches inland while lingering
between 1.7-2.0 inches along the coast. Remnant outflow boundaries
near the coast will still be lingering across the area and storms
will likely focus along those during the mid-morning hours into
the afternoon. As a result, the greatest rain chances on Friday
look to be along southern portions of the area with slightly less
coverage over far interior portions of the area.

High temperatures on Friday will be slightly warmer with highs
topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. Lows each night
are expected to range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper
70s along the coast. Given the continued southerly persistent
flow, a HIGH risk of rip currents remains in effect at the coastal
Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Friday. BB/03

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...An upper level
weakness over the extreme southeastern states and extreme
northeast Gulf changes somewhat through the period to become
oriented from the extreme southeast states to across the north
central Gulf, including the forecast area. An upper ridge
meanwhile persists further to the west and also to the east, into
the western Atlantic. A surface ridge which extends from the
western Atlantic to across the northern Gulf becomes mainly
oriented along the northern Gulf coastal area through Saturday
night and promotes a predominately light southeasterly flow over
the area that will persist through the short term. Drier deep
layer air continues to gradually flow into the area Friday night
with precipitable water values dropping to 1.3-1.5 inches well
inland and to 1.5-1.7 inches near the coast. A rebound in deep
layer moisture, albeit somewhat modest, ensues Saturday with the
slow movement of the upper level weakness, with precipitable water
values increasing to 1.6-1.9 inches and persisting through the
short term. Dry conditions develop both Friday and Saturday nights
over interior areas while closer to the coast slight chance to
chance pops continue, then with daytime heating and the sea breeze
on Saturday and Sunday, expect scattered convective development.
Lows Friday night and Saturday night typically range from around
70 well inland to the mid 70s at the immediate coast. Highs on
Saturday mainly range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. A moderate
risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29 /22

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...An upper level weakness
which extends from the extreme southeastern states to across the
north central Gulf drifts westward through Monday and phases with
an upper trof developing over the eastern states. The upper trof
elongates and weakens on Tuesday while a surface ridge initially
oriented from Georgia to along the northern Gulf coast becomes
oriented east-west across the central Gulf and promotes a light
southerly flow over the forecast area. Deep layer moisture
continues to gradually increase over the area through Monday with
precipitable water values reaching around 2.0 inches, and similar
values likely persist through midweek. With daytime heating and
the sea breeze, will have chance to good chance pops each day,
with occasional numerous coverage in the afternoon on Monday and
Thursday along I-10 (near the sea-breeze) where it appears that
deep layer moisture will be the best. /29 /22

&&

.MARINE...A light to moderate onshore flow pattern will prevail
through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will slowly
diminish through the weekend. Persistent deep moisture and a
stalled boundary in the vicinity of the northern Gulf will result
in high chances of showers and storms through the week. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
228 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

ALZ059-FLZ201-142015-
Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-
228 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Escambia and northwestern Escambia Counties through 315 PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Atmore, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Atmore, Century, Flomaton and Bratt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3090 8757 3108 8752 3113 8723 3095 8724
      3093 8726 3094 8727 3093 8729 3091 8728
      3091 8729 3089 8728 3088 8730 3086 8730
      3086 8731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 260DEG 13KT 3099 8747

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
347 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

ALZ262-264-FLZ201-142130-
Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia Inland FL-
347 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Baldwin and
northwestern Escambia Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 6 miles east of Stapleton, or 8 miles northeast
of Loxley, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Baldwin and
northwestern Escambia Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8772 3077 8777 3085 8762 3094 8747
      3073 8737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 245DEG 20KT 3073 8768

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
430 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

ALZ263-265-142215-
Mobile Coastal AL-Mobile Central AL-
430 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Mobile
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 430 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Theodore. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tillmans Corner, Theodore and I10 And I65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 8840 3065 8841 3066 8804 3064 8806
      3062 8806 3061 8805 3058 8807 3057 8809
      3054 8808 3051 8810 3048 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 250DEG 2KT 3056 8818

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CGAL