Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for most of the forecast area until 8pm. The MCS we have been
tracking all day has continued to progress southeast and is
interacting with a very unstable airmass. Latest mesoanalysis
indicates MLCAPES have increased to 2500-3500 J/kg from inland SE
MS southeastward across coastal AL/NW FL. There is a notable
instability gradient across the northeast portions of the forecast
area. This line of strong to severe storms will continue to move
east and southeast into our region through the rest of the
afternoon, aided by interaction with a west-east outflow boundary
over the central portion of the forecast area and modest 500 mb
height falls. The greatest coverage of storms will likely be
focused across interior SE MS and interior SW AL. Closer to the
coast, visible satellite shows that convective cumulus is
struggling to develop, likely due to residual subsidence from
earlier Gulf/SE LA convection. Convective coverage along the
immediate coast remains uncertain. Storms may also begin to
struggle as they reach south central AL due to lower instability.

Low level lapse rates are 8-9 C/km with DCAPES near or just over
1000 J/kg. This suggests the primary severe weather threat will
continue to be damaging wind gusts. Some isolated severe hail is
possible with the stronger updrafts. The tornado threat is rather
low due to weak shear. However, given the presence of the
aforementioned west-east outflow boundary and the incoming
boundary from the northwest, we will have to watch for storm scale
interactions along those boundaries as brief spin-ups can
sometimes occur. Again, damaging wind gusts will be the primary
severe threat.

The severe threat should come to an by 9pm at the very latest, but
likely sooner. Rain chances will decrease markedly for inland
areas late tonight into the overnight hours. The biggest
uncertainty is rain chances closer to the coast. Some hi-res
guidance suggests a boundary will be left draped across the
southern third of the area, which may help to spark additional
isolated to scattered storms late this evening into the overnight
closer to the coast. Maintained a chance of thunderstorms for
those areas given this possibility. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 103 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/

AVIATION...
18Z issuance...A line of strong to severe storms continue to
approach the region from the northwest. The line should enter our
Southeast Mississippi/Southwest Alabama counties by 19-20Z, and
should reach our TAF sites by 21-22Z. Low-end MVFR to IFR
conditions, as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning will
accompany these storms as they push through. Storms should
decrease in coverage and intensity by the evening hours. VFR
conditions are expected overnight tonight and into Saturday
morning. /96

PREVIOUS MESOSCALE UPDATE...The previously mentioned MCS
continues to make progress east and southeast, now moving into
west central MS as of 11am. There are mixed signals about how the
organization of the MCS will hold together as it moves southeast
into our area this afternoon. The first thing we note this morning
is a marked instability gradient across the area in association
with a weak front located roughly near the Hwy 84 corridor.
MLCAPES have already climbed to 2000-2500 J/kg along the coast
(also aided by a moisture surge from a northward moving outflow
boundary from earlier Gulf convection) to under 1000 J/kg north of
Hwy 84. With additional heating today, MLCAPES are forecast to
climb to 3000-4000 J/kg across the I-10 corridor into adjacent
parts of SE MS with 1000-1500 J/kg across our far northern third
of the forecast area. Effective bulk shear will not be too
favorable with values of 15-25 kt in general. Overall this
suggests that the overall MCS may become somewhat disorganized.
However, the associated outflow boundary will continue to march
southeast into our inland SE MS counties around 1pm or so and
continue southeast across the region through the afternoon and
early evening. As the boundary encounters the increasingly
unstable airmass, we will likely see new storm development along
and just ahead of the boundary (with convection also aided by
subtle 500 mb height falls and the northward moving outflow north
of I-10). Having said that, the extent of convective coverage
still remains uncertain as satellite and mesoanalysis indicates
some residual subsidence over coastal areas from the early morning
Gulf convection. Some mesoscale models indicate this could limit
overall coverage in southern and eastern zones. We will have to
watch satellite trends for the next few hours to see how much of a
factor that could be. All that being said, our current forecast
of decreasing rain chances in the eastern zones looks good so no
changes are anticipated to the ongoing forecast.

While deep layer shear is rather meager, steep low level lapse
rates and DCAPES around 1000 J/kg indicate the potential for
damaging wind gusts as the main severe threat. However, a few
large hail reports are possible in the southern half of the area
where the higher instability resides. The tornado threat is rather
low today due to weak shear. However, given the outflow boundary
present north of I-10 and the incoming boundary from the
northwest, we will have to watch for storm scale interactions
along those boundaries as brief spin-ups can sometimes occur.
Again, damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat.

The current Slight Risk over a majority of our area handles the
threat well. The severe threat should end by 9pm in our eastern
zones, if not sooner. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

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