Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the
period. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the evening, with the possibility of a stronger complex pushing
through in the late evening hours. Temporary reductions in
visibility and ceilings are expected in heavier activity. Storms
will subside during the early morning hours and winds will become
light and variable. Showers and storms will be possible again on Monday
afternoon as another sea breeze boundary develops and pushes
inland. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Mid to upper level troughing
persists across the region today before shifting slightly east
going into Monday. Once again we will see afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms popping off along the seabreeze boundary
as it moves inland this afternoon and evening, likely lingering
into the late evening hours. Shear remains modest in the 20 to
25kt range, perhaps locally enhanced to nearer 30kts in
association with the seabreeze boundary. CAPE will be in the 2,000
to 2,500j/kg range with DCAPE values of 800 to 1,100j/kg. Any
showers and storms that develop today once again will have the
chance to become strong to severe sporting large hail and damaging
wind gusts in any of the more robust convection. This is
particularly true in any cases where storm mergers are involved.
Temperatures are topping out in the upper 80's to lower 90's today
with temperatures falling into the middle to upper 60's tonight.

Heading into Monday our trough shifts east some and transient
shortwave ridging moves overhead in the mid to upper levels. This
should help induce some subsidence over the area and help keep
convective coverage more limited across the area during the
afternoon hours. Once again though can't rule out an isolated
shower or thunderstorm owing to daytime heating or the seabreeze
boundary. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 90's for
most locations.

As has been the case the past couple days, monitoring how
convection evolves upstream across MO/AR this afternoon for a
complex of thunderstorms that develops and moves quickly
southeast. This should begin to fizzle out as it moves across
northern MS into AL after sunset given loss of daytime heating
and subsequently SBCAPE. Will continue to watch as forecast
guidance often has a difficult time in these regimes diagnosing
the evolution of these convective complexes even with a 12 to 24
hour lead time.

A low risk of rip currents remains in place through Monday. MM/25

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Monday night
and Tuesday, an upper trough over the Southeast gets sheared as it
shifts east as an upper level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes
moves off and an upper ridge along the lee side of the Rockies
pushes east over the Plains. A weak surface cold front moves south
across the Southeast states through Tuesday night. On Monday evening
lingering convection should end by midnight, with a few showers or
storms persisting over the adjacent Gulf waters overnight. On
Tuesday, with the front moving through and with PWAT's still
generally around 1.0-1.2 inches, will probably see some isolated
to scattered convection over portions of the forecast area, but
the upper ridge building in from the west may help to limit this
somewhat. The front drops just offshore by late Tuesday night and
remains to our south through Wednesday night, with ridging surface
and aloft building over our area. Expect dry conditions for the
end of the short term period and already warm to hot temperatures
becoming even moreso by Wednesday. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights
range from the low to mid over inland areas and upper 60s to near
70 along the coast. A little warmer Wednesday night with lows
mainly in the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s at the coast.
Highs on Tuesday around 90 to low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s
at the coast, a little warmer on Wednesday highs with in the low
to mid 90s inland but still mid to upper 80s along the coast. /12

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...General weak ridging
continues over the forecast area through Friday with little to no
rain expected through that time frame. Ridging begins to break
down from west to east over the weekend as as surface cold front
and weak upper trough moves toward and then over the region
Saturday and Sunday. Moisture gradually increases as the system
approaches from the west, and at least scattered coverages of
mainly afternoon showers and storms will return for both Saturday
and Sunday. Guidance continues to advertise temperatures well
above seasonal norms through the extended period, with lows
generally in the upper 60s to low 70s and highs in the mid 80s
along the coast, with lower to mid 90s inland. /12

MARINE...A diurnal wind pattern remains in place through
Tuesday with sea breeze winds increasing near the coast and over
area bays during the day and a land breeze at night. This diurnal
wind pattern will be augmented by any convective complexes that move
across coastal waters through Monday night with temporary offshore
surges with storms. A light to moderate southwesterly flow will
become established by the middle to latter portions of the upcoming
week. Seas remain around 1 foot through Monday, increasing to 1 to 2
feet by Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
703 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ALZ264-266-160045-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
703 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Baldwin County through 745 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Bon Secour, or 4 miles south of Foley,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Foley, Orange Beach and Bon Secour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3024 8795 3025 8779 3030 8773 3029 8776
      3035 8782 3045 8771 3035 8754 3031 8758
      3035 8757 3033 8759 3036 8760 3036 8761
      3032 8759 3030 8762 3030 8757 3027 8759
      3024 8782 3024 8776 3023 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 035DEG 10KT 3035 8768

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
706 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ALZ051-160045-
Choctaw AL-
706 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Choctaw
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Snell, or 13 miles south of
Cuba, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butler and Lisman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8829 3207 8817 3200 8846 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 344DEG 10KT 3225 8840

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
712 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ALZ263-264-266-160100-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Mobile Central AL-
712 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Mobile and
southwestern Baldwin Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Downtown Mobile to 4
miles northwest of Magnolia Springs. Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Daphne, Fairhope,
Chickasaw, Point Clear, I65 And I165 and I10 And I65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 8784 3039 8781 3041 8782 3042 8783
      3038 8784 3039 8785 3041 8791 3048 8794
      3055 8790 3065 8792 3064 8793 3062 8805
      3057 8809 3052 8809 3057 8817 3080 8814
      3080 8811 3068 8793 3060 8775 3033 8781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 355DEG 7KT 3069 8808 3045 8782

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
714 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ALZ051-053-160100-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-
714 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Choctaw
and northwestern Clarke Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Toxey, or 13 miles southwest of Butler,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coffeeville, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8796 3171 8809 3170 8809 3170 8816
      3187 8847 3188 8847 3206 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 297DEG 15KT 3193 8834

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
753 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ALZ263-160145-
Mobile Central AL-
753 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Mobile
County through 845 PM CDT...

At 753 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Mobile Regional Airport, or 7 miles west of
Midtown Mobile, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Semmes, Tanner Williams and Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8841 3072 8841 3080 8830 3079 8823
      3074 8818 3050 8827 3049 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 042DEG 9KT 3071 8824

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH