Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Before noontime, a squall line is
moving south across the forecast area. With the line moving into an
area of 1500J/kg and Effective Bulk Shear Values values around 55kt,
the ingredients for continued strong to severe storms is expected.
Add in 0-1km helicities around 250 m^2/s^2 and embedded tornadoes
are possible. The line has become more organized in its structure as
it moves south, with south-southwesterly deep layer flow having a
significant cross line component, that when added to precipitable
h20 values of 1.7"-1.9", is creating torrential rainfall rates.
The more progressive speed of the line and dry conditions is
helping to temper, but not eliminate water issues. This line is
expected to slow as it moves to and south of the coast as the
driving upper dynamics move off and flow feeding the line becomes
more southwest to west and parallel with the line. The risk of
damaging storm will decrease, but not go way quite yet. With the
efficient rainers slowing, there being a better chance of
training cells, water issues will increase.

Tonight, the squall line will eventually stall over the northern
Gulf, helping to provide the focus for showers and thunderstorm
south of I-65 overnight. A night of above seasonal temperatures
continues, with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 60s to near
70.

Wednesday, the stalled surface will help to provide the focus for
convection formation as temperature rise. Temperatures rising into
the low to mid 80s will bring MLCapes rising into the 2000-2500J/kg
range. Wind shear values are very modest, with Bulk Shear Values
around 30-35kts and 0-1km helicities around 100m^2/s^2. Add in a
weak shortwave moving along the northern Gulf Coast helping to
provide some mid level destabilization and strong to marginally
severe storms are again possible. Helping to limit timing to late
morning and afternoon hours is a low level inversion centered around
850mb. The day's storms will have a hard time getting going until
this cap erodes. Large hail will be possible, with mid level
lapse rates of 7-7.5C/km indicated on the model soundings. /16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Mid level MVFR or higher conditions were noted
across the area outside of a southward moving line of eastward
moving thunderstorms. LIFR/IFR conditions were noted in the
thunderstorms containing very heavy rain, frequent lightning and
locally stronger and variable winds. This line will continue to
sag south to the coast into the early afternoon hours, affecting
area TAF sites from 18z to 23z before easing. Weak isentropic
upglide and a very moist airmass combined with southwesterly flow
of 5-10 knots will bring IFR level CIGS, maybe local fog formation
with the winds decrease. Thursday, as the stratus deck begins to
break up and the area heats, another round of showers and
thunderstorms is possible from late morning into the afternoon
hours. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ059-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1124 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW RUTLEDGE          31.78N 86.33W
04/05/2022                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SHINGLES OFF OF HOME AND DAMAGE TO A STORAGE
            BUILDING. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JFB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1125 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALZ059-261>266-FLZ201-203-MSZ079-051730-
Mobile Coastal AL-Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-George MS-
1125 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Mobile, central
Baldwin, southwestern Escambia, northern Santa Rosa, northwestern
Escambia and southern George Counties through 1230 PM CDT...

At 1124 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of
Poarch Creek Reservation to 4 miles west of Satsuma to 10 miles north
of Latimer. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Daphne, Tillmans Corner,
Saraland, Bay Minette, Atmore, Theodore, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Grand
Bay, Robertsdale, Bayou La Batre, Creola, Century, Flomaton, Loxley,
Chunchula and Stockton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Alabama...northwestern Florida...and southeastern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 8819 3039 8840 3074 8841 3074 8889
      3105 8807 3100 8676 3076 8708 3040 8789
      3075 8792 3075 8794 3074 8794 3066 8793
      3072 8797 3068 8800 3072 8799 3071 8801
      3077 8800 3077 8801 3031 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 285DEG 36KT 3109 8768 3088 8813 3065 8889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Black

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW TUNNEL SPRINGS    31.62N 87.26W
04/05/2022                   MONROE             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF TREES
            DOWN AND BLOCKING PARTS OF HIGHWAY 21 NEAR
            THE PETERMAN AND TUNNEL SPRINGS AREA. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1209 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE BUTLER SPRINGS     31.77N 86.83W
04/05/2022                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING WILKINSON RD.

1045 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CHAPMAN             31.65N 86.72W
04/05/2022                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOCKING ROAD AT HIGHWAY 31 AND
            WAVERLY LN.

1051 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNE I65 AND AL 185    31.95N 86.62W
04/05/2022                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD AT OLD STAGE RD AND
            HIGHWAY 185.

1057 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE I65 AND AL 185     31.94N 86.52W
04/05/2022                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOCKING ROAD AT FT. DEPOSIT RD AND
            HIGHWAY 31.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1221 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     TORNADO          3 NE COFFEEVILLE        31.80N 88.05W
04/05/2022                   CLARKE             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF DAMAGE
            TO A HOME ON ICE PLANT ROAD. LIKELY TORNADO
            DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1229 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW AQUILLA           31.70N 88.43W
04/05/2022                   WASHINGTON         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL CHICKEN HOUSES.

&&

JFB