River Flood Warning 25, NWS Mobile, AL

696 
WGUS84 KMOB 050430
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1130 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-060430-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0025.220407T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220407T0800Z.220409T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1130 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some 
  roads in low lying areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 17.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Thursday morning and continue rising to at least 22.0
    feet Saturday evening. Additional rises are possible
    thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

463 
WGUS84 KMOB 051414
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
914 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-061415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.220407T1312Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220407T1312Z.220410T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some 
  roads in low lying areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 16.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Thursday morning and continue rising to 22.0 feet Sunday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

804 
WGUS84 KMOB 060220
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
920 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-070230-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.220407T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220407T0600Z.220410T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 22 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some 
  roads in low lying areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 17.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Thursday morning and continue rising to a crest of 22
    feet Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

BAB

431 
WGUS84 KMOB 061433
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
933 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-071445-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.220406T1433Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220410T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...From this morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some 
  roads in low lying areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 21.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:15 AM CDT Wednesday was 21.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.0
    feet early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

545 
WGUS84 KMOB 070500
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-080500-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220410T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some 
  roads in low lying areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 22.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.0
    feet early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

112 
WGUS84 KMOB 071413
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
913 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-081415-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220410T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, flooding of lowlands will occur. At 22.0 
  feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 22.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to gradually rise to a crest
    of 24.0 feet Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

254 
WGUS84 KMOB 080235
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
935 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-090245-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220410T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
935 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 20 feet, flooding of lowlands will occur. At 22.0 
  feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 23.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24
    feet Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

BAB

266 
WGUS84 KMOB 081534
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1034 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-091545-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220410T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1034 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 20 feet, flooding of lowlands will occur. At 22.0 
  feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Friday the stage was 23.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.0
    feet Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

485 
WGUS84 KMOB 090300
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-100300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220413T2248Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220410T1200Z.220413T1648Z.NO/
1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, flooding of lowlands will occur. At 22.0 
  feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 23.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.0
    feet Sunday morning. It will then begin a slow fall to below
    flood stage Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

637 
WGUS84 KMOB 091508
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1008 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-101515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220409T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1008 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some 
  roads in low lying areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 23.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 20.3 feet
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

848 
WGUS84 KMOB 100320
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1020 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Waynesboro, Leakesville...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-110330-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220414T1200Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220409T0500Z.220414T0600Z.NO/
1020 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, flooding of lowlands will occur. At 22.0 
  feet, flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 22.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is will begin a slow tonight, falling
    below flood stage early Thursday morning. The river will
    continue falling to 19.3 feet Thursday evening.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

572 
WGUS84 KMOB 101512
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1012 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Leakesville...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-111515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220412T0300Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220409T0500Z.220411T2100Z.NO/
1012 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some 
  roads in low lying areas become cut off by high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 22.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 15.2 feet Friday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

990 
WGUS84 KMOB 110047
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
747 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

For the Chickasawhay River...including Leakesville...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-153-112145-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220411T2136Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220409T0500Z.220411T1536Z.NO/
747 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands will occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 21.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning and continue falling to 14.3 feet
    Friday evening.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    21.1 feet on 05/04/2017.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

012 
WGUS84 KMOB 111448
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
948 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting Greene, Wayne and George 
  Counties.

MSC039-041-153-111600-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220411T1448Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.220406T0837Z.220409T0500Z.220411T0910Z.NO/
948 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 19.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 12.1 feet by
    Saturday morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
      3100 8875 3110 8858


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through Monday
afternoon. By Monday night into Tuesday morning, a storm system
approaches the region, bringing with it numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to
severe. Ceilings will likely lower to IFR by early Tuesday
morning with the approach of the system. Visibilities will also
lower, especially in some of the heavier storms. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...Some patches of fog
have developed over a few select regions right along the coast.
Although becoming dense at times, the fog seems to be fairly
limited in coverage and visibility reductions appear to be very
short-lived. Overall, fog looks to remain non-impactful and
therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory is not warranted at this time, but
will continue to monitor through daybreak. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.

Zonal flow aloft will become southwesterly by this afternoon as
two shortwave troughs approach the region. The first shortwave
will move through on Tuesday while the other trough lags behind
and moves through on Wednesday. Moisture will steadily increase
today, as surface winds turn southeasterly in response to a
surface high moving off the Eastern Seaboard. Some high clouds
will likely begin to move in by the late afternoon and early
evening as the trough inches closer.

By tonight into early Tuesday morning, the neutral to positively
tilted upper trough will race across northern Mississippi and
Northern Alabama. An ongoing squall line will likely be moving
across northern Louisiana and into central Mississippi overnight.
A surface warm front will likely lift north during the pre-dawn
hours bringing with it the chance for showers and storms as it
lifts north and as upper divergence increases over the area.
Meanwhile, the squall line will continue racing eastward. With the
best upper divergence centered overhead and with a rather potent
300 mb jet slamming into the back of the squall line, there
appears to be no reason to suggest that it won't pack some sort of
punch. So that brings us to the potential hazards. Current high
res model guidance is suggesting three rounds of hazards with this
event:

Round one...This will likely involve the storms along the surging
warm front. Most Unstable cape values will climb into the 1000 to
1500 J/KG range and increase throughout the morning just north of
the warm front. Surface Based capes south of the warm front will
range from 1500 to 2000 J/KG. Shear values will be impressive, with
45 to 50 knots of effective bulk shear and weak forcing supercells
will likely be favored in this environment. The question will be
will they be north or south of the boundary. If they form north of
the boundary, storms would be elevated and shear profiles would
support splitting supercells. Given this a hail threat would be
favored, especially with mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km
range. Some larger hail approaching golf ball might be supported in
this scenario. Now, if storms form south of the boundary, then
surface based supercells would be possible with all severe modes
possible including tornadoes. 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity values
range from 200 to 300+ along and near the environment with plenty of
instability and no capping in sight.

Round two...This will be the squall line which will likely enter our
interior southeastern Mississippi counties around sunrise and
quickly progress eastward. I strongly dislike comparing events due
to recency bias and every event has their own personalities it
seems, but there area a few differences being noted from the squall
line last Wednesday. 1. Cape looks rather impressive, with 1500 to
2500 J/KG across the area. 2. The 850mb jet ahead of the system is
not as strong, ONLY 50 to 55 knots vs. 70 knots. (don't let this
fool you. It is still plenty strong enough and might actually help
with wind production). 3. High res guidance seems to be supporting a
much stronger 850 mb rear inflow jet, punching in the back of this
storm (this could result in more widespread wind damage than last
week). Cape and shear profiles look impressive once again as the
squall moves through and both widespread damaging winds and
tornadoes will be possible and cannot rule out a strong tornado.
This will be especially true where bowing segments and more aligned
north/south vs. southwest to northeast. This appears to be more
likely north of I-10 where the best forcing and upper level support
moves through; however, it could easily extend all the way to the
coast. As stated the slightly weaker 850 flow ahead of the squall
line might support a better cold pool vs shear balance than last
week and could help aid in a strong wind damage event vs. the QLCS
tornado madness we had last week.

Round Three...Just when you think we are done with problems and the
severe storms move out, the heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat
begins. Given the positive and fast moving nature of the trough, the
cold pool of the squall line is expected to slowly orient itself
west to east as it approaches the coast. While this will likely
diminish the severe threat closer to the coast, it will likely bring
our more flash flood prone urban areas under the gun of training
storms. Deep layer westerly flow will overrun the cold pool with
weak convergence noted in the low-levels. This is not the perfect
setup for flash flooding, but it's close enough that minor changes
or training over the wrong area could result in flooding. With PWATS
of 1.75 to 2 inches, high res guidance is showing areas under this
convergence zone picking up 2 to 4 inches of rain with local amounts
greater than 4 inches. It will be critical for us to watch where
this sets up as this could lead to some issues; especially if it
finds its way across the I-10 corridor or south where urban areas
lead to poor drainage. This will likely occur from about noon
through early evening.

Those are the three main hazards to watch on Tuesday and not to add
on anymore but, with the high res guidance showing that trailing 850
mb jet mentioned in round two, would not be surprised to see some
wake low action keep winds elevated well behind the main squall
line. Will have to just keep an eye on observations for this one but
do not be surprised if it happens. Other than all that, temperatures
will be mild with highs today in the upper 70s along the coast to
low 80s inland. Highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler due to
cloud cover and rain - in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lastly, a HIGH risk of rip
currents will be in effect starting tonight. /96 BB/03

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Wednesday night/...At the
beginning of the period, an elongated and weakening shortwave
trof will be located over the easternmost states with a series of
shortwaves extending back across the southern/central portion of
the forecast area. The series of shortwaves gradually shift
southward through Wednesday morning to mainly affect the coastal
areas. A Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) which moved
through the forecast area earlier on Tuesday will be located well
east of the area at the beginning of the period. Modest subsidence
and somewhat drier air flows into region in the wake of the QLCS
with precipitable water values dropping to around 1.0 inch over
the northwestern portion of the area, but the series of shortwaves
aid in maintaining precipitable water values up to around 1.5
inches closer to the coast. This will support slight chance to
chance pops Tuesday evening over the eastern half of the area,
then slight chance pops follow for a portion of the western
Florida panhandle late Tuesday night. A potential for strong to
severe storms continues from Tuesday into the early evening hours,
after which diminishing shear values should bring an end to the
threat of severe weather, but only temporarily.

A larger upper trof meanwhile evolves over the central states
Tuesday night then amplifies and expands significantly Wednesday
into Wednesday night to nearly encompass the eastern two-thirds of
the CONUS. An associated surface low passes well to the north and
brings a strong cold front through the forecast area Wednesday
night. In response to this large and expanding upper trof, deep
layer moisture stages a recovery over the area with precipitable
water values increasing to around 1.5 inches areawide on
Wednesday. A combination of an upper jet within the large upper
trof and another over the far northern Gulf look to set up
enhanced upper level divergence over the forecast area Wednesday
afternoon which then looks to mostly shift eastward out of the
area by the late evening hours. In response to this and the
improving deep layer moisture, will have chance pops return to
nearly the entire area by Wednesday afternoon. While the enhanced
upper level divergence looks to be mainly moving out of the area
by late evening, the passage of the cold front also occurs during
the night. This will support mainly chance to good chance pops
Wednesday evening with dry conditions developing later in the
night over the western portion of the area. 0-3 km helicity values
of 100-150 m2/s2 are possible where there is the potential for
convective development Wednesday into Wednesday night, and MLCAPE
values around 2500 J/kg will develop by late morning through the
afternoon before gradually diminishing Wednesday night to around
1500 J/kg along and ahead of the front. Model soundings show
plenty of dry air will be present around 700 mb and above to
initiate downdrafts, and considering the shear and ample
instability, this environment looks to favor the potential for
strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail as
the primary threats although an isolated tornado will be possible
as well. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe
storms in place for the entire area.

Lows Tuesday night will be mild and range from the lower 60s well
inland to the upper 60s at the immediate coast. Highs on Wednesday
will be mainly in the lower to mid 80s except for near 80 at the
coast. Lows Wednesday night will be cooler in the wake of the cold
front and mainly in the 50s except for around 60 at the immediate
coast. A high risk of rip currents will be in effect through the
period. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A massive upper trof
over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS continues to amplify
while moving into the eastern states through Saturday then finally
moves off into the western Atlantic on Sunday. A dry west to
northwest surface flow prevails over the area through Saturday as
a surface ridge builds into the region in the wake of the passage
of the cold front Wednesday night. A light return flow develops on
Sunday as the surface ridge shifts eastward across the area.
Progressively cooler air flows into the area during much of the
period, with lows Friday night looking to range from the upper 30s
well inland to the mid 40s at the coast. Lows Saturday night will
be similar. Likewise, daytime highs trend cooler and will be in
the 60s Friday and Saturday. With the return flow developing on
Sunday, a warming trend ensues with highs in the 70s. /29

MARINE...Light to moderate easterly winds will gradually turn
southeasterly by this afternoon. Moderate to at times strong
south to southwesterly flow, along with building seas, is then
expected on Tuesday as a storm system approaches the region. Due
to this, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from Tuesday
morning until Tuesday mid-afternoon for all local marine zones,
and continuing through Tuesday evening for the open Gulf waters.
By late week, moderate to strong northwesterly flow will return in
the wake of a strong cold front and another Small Craft Advisory
may become necessary. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob