Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Mobile, AL

827 
WGUS74 KMOB 110102
FFSMOB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
802 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

FLC033-113-110112-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-220711T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Escambia FL-Santa Rosa FL-
802 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA AND 
SOUTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed any additional 
information from local officials.

LAT...LON 3036 8714 3042 8719 3047 8724 3049 8722
      3051 8719 3040 8706 3036 8704 3035 8704
      3033 8712

$$

21/CLL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
405 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Wet and stormy sums up
the near term pretty well. An upper level trough meanders over the
area as a stalled front sits off the north-central Gulf Coast
states. These features will be responsible for continuing to
supply the area with copious amounts of moisture (noted by PWATs
remaining at or above 2 to 2.25"). This coupled with afternoon
heating should allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms
to develop today and again Monday for much of the region. Greatest
coverage will remain focused generally along and southeast of the
I-65/I-10 corridor. Coverage should become focused across coastal
counties and the marine waters late this evening into the
overnight hours. Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern with
storms given antecedent soil moisture is rather moist from
rainfall the past few days. We could see some spots that
experience slow moving and/or training thunderstorms dealing with
localized flash flooding issues today and tomorrow. A marginal
risk for flash flooding remains in place across the area today and
tomorrow from the WPC. At this time it doesn't appear there will
be much of a severe risk from storms, although any storm mergers
could produce some stronger downbursts.

Forecast highs will be in the upper 80's to lower 90's for today,
and expect this to remain the case for Monday. Lows will be in
the middle 70's, with upper 70's nearer the coast. Heat index
values should remain relatively tame today and Monday owing to the
cooler forecast highs, however, they will still be in the 100 to
105 range. A LOW risk of rip currents is in place today into
tonight, becoming a Moderate risk Monday and Monday evening for
the FL panhandle and AL coastlines respectively. A HIGH risk of
rip currents begins Tuesday in the short term period. MM/25

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...An upper
level low will linger over the northern Gulf through much of the
period as the area remains situated between two upper level
ridges. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary will gradually wash out
through mid week. The upper low/weakness aloft combined with the
stalled front and plenty of deep layer moisture (PW values of
2-2.2 inches) will continue to maintain a wet pattern with daily
rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Global
models continue to have trouble handling possible surface low
development across the northern Gulf during the mid to late part
of the week. If low development does take place nearby, then
associated rainfall amounts would increase along with all the
other associated coastal hazards.

The clouds and rain will help keep temperatures in check with mid
to upper 80s. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s to
near 80 along the coast. /13

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The extended remains
unsettled as the area remains in a weakness aloft with continued
high amounts of deep layer moisture. The wild card is what happens
with sfc low development over the northern Gulf and where it goes
through the mid to latter part of the week. The steering flow
pattern remains very weak, so anything that develops will be slow
moving and will serve to drastically increase rainfall amounts.
Regardless of development, the potential for flash flooding will
likely to continue to increase through the week as the wet pattern
continues. The end of the week into the weekend remains uncertain
as the GFS and ECMWF have very different solutions. /13

&&

.MARINE...No hazards are expected for the marine waters through
Tuesday outside of increased winds and seas nearby any thunderstorms
that does develop. Our attention turns towards the end of the middle
to end of next week as confidence is growing in the potential for a
area of low pressure to develop over the northern Gulf. This system
will likely lead to southerly winds and seas increasing. We will
have to monitor this system closely as trends could lead to
hazardous conditions. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
455 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

FLZ202-204-102230-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-
455 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Escambia County through 530 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Oriole Beach, or over Gulf Breeze, moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Brent, West Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Goulding and Oriole
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 8730 3053 8712 3052 8715 3051 8716
      3045 8707 3049 8716 3037 8717 3038 8703
      3034 8716 3036 8720 3037 8719 3038 8719
      3041 8722 3034 8722 3033 8725
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 346DEG 9KT 3036 8712

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Black