Wind Advisory 6, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
530 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...High Fire Weather Danger Across East Central Florida Today...

...Unusually Comfortable Temps Will Continue Though This Weekend,
Enjoy it While it Lasts...

Current...An amplifying positive tilt short wave trough continues to
drop SE across NOFL and the adjacent GOMEX this morning, with yet
another attendant reinforcing frontal boundary (discontinuity mainly
in the Td/ThetaE fields) just north of Lake/Volusia Cos. METARs show
this front quite clearly as winds have backed from W to SW overnight
with a pronounced NW shift behind the front. Lift on the east side
of the trough axis is producing high based SCU/low based AC which
has spread across the northern half CWA. Current temps are between
55-60F except for some L50s at a few spots across the south, where
winds have dropped off a little more.

Today/tonight...The mid level trough axis will take a neutral tilt
as it pivots across the deep south and FL through mid day, then a
neg-tilt as it moves rapidly offshore by sunset. As the attendant
frontal boundary surges SE, the atmospheric VV profile will rapidly
switch from ascent to descent, which will mix down both drier air
and stronger winds above the surface. This will 'eat up' whatever
mid level cloudiness remains out there, but more importantly the
increasing/gusty winds and lowering humidity will increase the fire
weather danger this afternoon (see further discussion on this below).

Increasingly dry/windy today with quite comfortable max temps near
70F across the far north and U70s far south. Decreasing winds late
tonight with temps a somewhat astounding 10-15F below normal (L40s
north to U40s south)!

Sunday-Friday...Dry and pleasant conditions persist across east-
central Florida to end the weekend and for much of next week. A
surface ridge over the central GOMEX will move over FL Sunday, then
shift to the western Atlantic early next week. The local winds will
veer north/northeast on Sunday, easterly on Monday, then southeast
Tuesday through late week. Temperatures return to well above normal
values by mid week as a mid-level ridge builds over FL.

Below normal temps Sunday as afternoon highs still only forecast to
reach the low to mid 70s, and Sunday night lows drop down to the low
to mid 50s. Temperatures warm a few degrees each day, with highs in
the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s inland on Monday climbing
to the mid 80s along the coast and low 90s inland on Thursday. One
final cool night Monday night with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Then, overnight temps become mild with lows generally in the upper
60s to around 70 degrees from Wednesday night onward.

The next chance of rain could come late this week as a cold front
approaches northern Florida. Have added a 20-30pct chance of showers
for Friday, however models are not in agreement regarding the
location/strength of this front, so expect rain chances to change as
models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CIGs BKN060-080 with BKN250 also over the VRB-SUA
corridor this morning. Clouds should shift east and rapidly erode
from 15Z-18Z with winds from ~290 degrees increasing to sustained
16-19KT/G25-28kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...Aforementioned reinforcing front will cross the
waters during the morning and early afternoon. Winds shift to NW
and increase to 18-23kt, gusting as high as 30kt. Made a couple of
tweaks to the inherited SCA to expand it to the offshore Treasure
Coast leg starting at 00Z this evening, and also extend it through
12Z for all offshore legs. Seas will build up to 7ft well offshore
tonight, especially in the Gulf Stream.

Sunday...Winds decrease across the local area as a high pressure
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico moves across the northern FL
peninsula and into the far SW Atlantic. This causes winds to become
north to northeast Sunday morning, and decrease to 10-15 knots.
However, elevated seas are likely to linger offshore producing poor
boating conditions. Nearshore seas 3-4 feet, and 4-6 feet offshore
and in the Gulf Stream.

Monday-Wednesday...High pressure across the local area will lead to
favorable boating conditions for the first half of next week. East
winds Monday at 10-15 knots will veer southeast on Tuesday through
mid week. Seas 2-3 feet, building up to 4 feet offshore on
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...The combination of west-northwest winds increasing to ~20mph
gusting to 30mph at times, coupled with minimum RH values of 30 to
35 percent will result in a High Fire Weather Danger across all of
east central Florida this afternoon. When it comes to specific RFW
criteria, there is a stark discontinuity in ground moisture when
comparing areas from Osceola/Brevard Cos northward and the 4 Cos to
the south. While ERC values have evened out over the past few days,
KBDI values are much, much lower from Osceola/Brevard northward to
the point where 70-100 percent of the areas to the north have values
of 1-100 (out of 800). Thus, an RFW has been issued for Okeechobee,
Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin Cos (where the risk of ignition
of new fires is much higher) while a Fire Weather Watch continues for
Seminole, Orange, Osceola and Brevard Cos.

Sunday...A high fire weather danger will continue Sunday, mostly for
areas west of Interstate 95 where RH values in the afternoon will
drop to between 25-29pct. Along the coast, since winds veer onshore
by noon, the RH values will only drop to around 30-35pct before
increasing in the late afternoon. Lighter winds around 10-15mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...Believe it or not, forecast low temps for early Sunday
morning (April 10th) at both Daytona Beach (43F) and Leesburg (46F)
are a mere 2 degrees above their records for the date of 41F and 44F
respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  43  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  72  47  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  74  46  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  77  46  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  69  46  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  70  45  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  72  47  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  77  46  74  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Indian River-Coastal Martin-Coastal Saint Lucie-
     Inland Indian River-Inland Martin-Inland Saint Lucie-
     Okeechobee.

     Fire Weather Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Southern Brevard-Mainland
     Northern Brevard-Mainland Southern Brevard-Northern Brevard
     Barrier Islands-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard
     Barrier Islands.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Rodriguez
AVIATION...Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
537 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-100000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
537 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Sustained west to northwest winds will increase to around 20 mph
by mid day, with gusts to around 30 mph expected through sunset.
Drivers of high profile vehicles should be alert to the gusty
winds, especially in open areas, overpasses and causeways.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
The gusty winds will combine with very dry air to produce a High
Fire Weather Danger across all of east central Florida today.
Never leave any outdoor fires unattended, and always dispose of
cigarette butts in proper receptacles.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
West-northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots well offshore Volusia and
Brevard Counties will spread farther south offshore the Treasure
Coast, and develop close to the coast of Volusia County. Seas
beyond 20 miles offshore will build to between 5 and 7 feet by
tonight. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for these
areas through late tonight. Small craft operators should exercise
caution near the Space and Treasure Coasts through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
The fire weather danger will be high again on Sunday afternoon.
Boating conditions will remain poor well offshore the Florida east
coast on Sunday, before easing next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Cristaldi