Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...New MARINE, AVIATION...

...Rain and Lightning Storm Chances Increase into the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Temperatures in the L-M90s this afternoon with
heat indices of 100-107 degrees, so be sure to take frequent breaks
and stay hydrated if outdoors. SCT showers and lightning storms
erupting across ECFL with increasing coverage and intensity
through late day.

The WCSB is moving inland quicker than its east coast counterpart
and expect a collision of boundaries across the central/east-central
peninsula late today. There is a slight/light westerly steering flow
component, but do expect very weak and often erratic cell movement
later in the day/evening surrounding stronger boundary collisions;
with some activity pushing back to the coast, especially Volusia and
Space coasts. Primary threats remain frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds of 40-50 mph and torrential downpours, leading to
minor/nuisance flooding. Localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are possible as a result, mainly for areas west of I-95.

Activity remains forecast to gradually wane after sunset, though
isolated showers and lightning storms could linger into the mid to
late evening. Temperatures will fall into the 70s late tonight but
it will continue to feel rather humid as dewpoints stay in the L70s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Thu-Fri...Weak mid level ridge over FL breaks down as cut-off low
develops near the LA gulf coast. This feature will induce weak sfc
low development in the Gulf of Mexico. While this low is not
expected to become tropical, the resulting deep S/SW flow will tap
into some deep Gulf moisture that will be pulled into north and
central FL. This will increase rain chances 70-80 percent Thu-Fri
with 90 percent over the north interior Fri. Increased clouds and
precip will cap max temps so it will not be as hot, with highs in
the lower 90s, possibly holding in the upper 80s across northern
sections on Fri. While some storms will contain gusty winds and
lightning strikes, the primary concern will be heavy rain with
flooding potential where soils are already saturated, such as Lake
County and adjacent portions of Volusia, Seminole and Orange
counties. Not considering a Flood Watch at this time but a more
liberal use of Flood Advisories is likely. Coastal sections from
Brevard to Martin counties really could use the rain and this time
they will not be left out.

Sat-Tue...The upper low over the central Gulf coast will gradually
weaken/fill and upper ridging will redevelop over FL and the Bahamas
this weekend. This should focus the heavier rains northwest of EC FL
but scattered aftn/eve storms will occur both days esp on the east
side of the FL peninsula. Then an upper trough will track east
across the Great Lakes early next week and suppress the ridge axis
south of the area. Another frontal trough will push into north FL
but stall. (It is too early for fronts to start making clean
passages through FL). This will maintain a warm/humid airmass with
scattered to numerous aftn/eve storms favoring the east side of the
peninsula. Concern for localized flooding will continue.
Temperatures will not vary much day to day, with highs in the low
90s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

Afternoon-Tonight...Onshore flow from sea breeze formation and inland
movement, and expect a few storms to make it back to the coast
late day/evening. Rather light/variable flow in the evening, some
of which from outflows over the mainland, will gradually veer back
toward offshore late evening/overnight, while remaining fairly
light. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore. Winds/seas
locally higher invof storms.

Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Thu-Sun...Expect light W wind flow to start Thu morning becoming
E/SE in the aftn. A steadier south to southeast wind will develop
Thu night through the weekend with speeds around 10 knots. There
will be an increasing chance for offshore moving storms Thursday
thru Saturday, containing gusty winds and lightning strikes during
the afternoons and evenings. Swells from Hurricane Earl will
continue to impact the local Atlc waters and could produce hazardous
conditions near inlets, esp during the outgoing tides. Combined seas
(wind wave and swell) 2-3 FT nearshore and 4 FT offshore Thu-Fri
then 3-4 FT nearshore and 5 FT well offshore this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

VFR outside of convection. The ECSB has developed and will slowly
move inland throughout the afternoon. Weak flow from the west will
allow the WCSB to move into ECFL. A sea breeze collision is expected
across inland terminals, and inland TEMPOs start around 19z for
VIS/CIG reductions within convection. Light winds today will make
storm motion erratic, but the WCSB should dominate allowing some
storms to pushback towards the EC. TEMPOs at TIX and MLB where there
is the best chance for VIS/CIG reductions along the coast. VCTS
across all other coastal terminals. Storms should dissipate around
01/02Z. Winds become light and variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  74  91  73 /  50  40  80  60
MCO  96  75  92  73 /  60  40  80  50
MLB  91  74  91  75 /  50  40  80  50
VRB  92  73  92  72 /  40  30  80  50
LEE  94  75  89  74 /  60  40  80  60
SFB  96  74  91  73 /  60  40  80  60
ORL  96  77  92  74 /  60  40  80  50
FPR  90  72  91  74 /  40  30  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....Watson
AVIATION...Law

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1021 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-080000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1021 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated showers and lightning storms will initially form this
afternoon along the east coast sea breeze, generally near the
Interstate 95 corridor. Gradually, these storms and additional
development will occur farther west over interior locations by
late afternoon and early evening. A few storms could be strong
with gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and
torrential rainfall.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Due to the slow and erratic movement of storms today, torrential
rainfall that persists over an area could produce a quick 1 to 3
inches in less than 60 to 90 minutes. This has the potential to
result in ponding of water on roadways and flooding of urban and
poorly drained areas.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Temperatures in the low to mid 90s and high humidity values will
produce afternoon heat indices of 100 to 107 degrees across east
central Florida. Remain well hydrated whenever engaged in any
outdoor activity, and take rest breaks indoors as needed.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at the
central Florida Atlantic beaches today. While rip currents will be
present all day, the risk will be highest through 230 PM due to
tidal effects. Remember to always swim within sight of a lifeguard,
and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms today may produce wind gusts around 34 knots or greater
over inland lakes, with the greatest chance extending from Lake
George southward to the Kissimmee chain of lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Coverage of lightning storms will increase late week into the
weekend, with the strongest storms producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential rainfall. For locations that
receive repeated heavy rainfall, a localized flooding concern may
develop this weekend into early next week.

The risk for rip currents will remain moderate on Thursday but
may become high this weekend due to increasing swell from
Hurricane Earl, located well offshore of the U.S. East Coast.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are expected to continue each
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Sedlock/Schaper

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
353 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

FLZ045-053-247-347-072030-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
353 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Brevard, southeastern Orange and north central Osceola Counties
through 430 PM EDT...

At 353 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wedgefield, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wedgefield, Avalon Park, Bithlo and Christmas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter immediately inside a building or hard-topped vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2846 8078 2841 8085 2841 8088 2839 8089
      2820 8116 2857 8122 2861 8097 2864 8096
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 334DEG 13KT 2841 8103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

FLZ053-547-072030-
Osceola FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Brevard
and northeastern Osceola Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Holopaw, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Brevard and northeastern Osceola Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2822 8114 2831 8101 2833 8084 2818 8080
      2810 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 251DEG 5KT 2824 8097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Leahy