Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
245 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Current-Tonight...Slow-moving storms near and inland of the I-95
corridor ascd mainly with the east coast breeze boundary will
drift inland in conjunction with the main ECSB breeze boundary.
The environment remains convectively primed for the remainder of
the afternoon as the eventual collision/merger with the west coast
breeze and interactions of numerous local surface boundaries wl
lead to some stronger storms, along with the likelihood of some
locally heavier rains and frequent lightning late afternoon
through nightfall. The short term forecast wl keep higher Pops
generally along to west of Kissimmee to metro Orlando and Deland
through nightfall, with tapering off of activity expected after 10
PM. Expect a reduction in cloudiness late tonight with lows
falling into the L-M70s.

from prev disc...

Sunday-Tuesday...By the end of this weekend, the axis of the surface
Atlantic ridge will have lifted to just north of the Cape. For the
first days of next week, the ridge axis shifts even farther north of
the area. This is going to maintain east to east-southeast flow
across east-central Florida, with a repeating weather story each
afternoon. Rain chances are going to be lowest along the coast (25-
40pct) with isolated to scattered showers/storms forming in the
early to mid afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland.

The highest rain chances (50-60pct) will be west of I-95, but
especially west of the Orlando Metro southward along the Kissimmee
River. The strongest storms will be capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and torrential
downpours. Hot and humid conditions continue with afternoon highs in
the low 90s along the coast, and mid 90s inland. Peak heat indices
reach up to 105 before afternoon storms develop.

The synoptic pattern is forecast to remain relatively calm over FL
on Sunday and Monday. The Atlantic ridge should remain strong/deep
enough to keep a stationary mid-level frontal boundary, stretching
from TX to the Carolinas, north of our area. By Tuesday, a trough
digging over the Northeast and mid/upper-level mass convergence into
the previously mentioned frontal boundary will cause that boundary
to sag southward, likely reaching northern FL on Tuesday. Models are
in good agreement that mid-level moisture and forcing for ascent
increases along/north of I-4, and that could lead to higher rain
chances from Orlando to Daytona Beach than are currently forecast
on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Friday...There is increasing confidence for a wet pattern
developing across much of the FL peninsula during the middle to late
part of the upcoming week. The stationary frontal boundary over
north to north-central FL will remain there through the end of the
week, and likely take on a negative tilt as it becomes sandwiched
between a ridge over the Central Plains and the Atlantic ridge to
the east. The positioning of these ridges will create significant
moisture flux convergence over the FL peninsula late in the week, as
southerly mid-level flow advects deep tropical moisture from the
Caribbean. Forecast models have PWATs reaching upwards of 2.2-2.4"
on Friday.

As a result, rain chances remain increased with at least 70+ pct
during the daytime periods from Wednesday onward, with scattered
showers and a few storms likely lingering through the late evening
each day. It is very likely that rain chances increase in the
coming days as forecast confidence also increases. This setup of
easterly low- level flow underneath southerly mid-level flow is a
good indicator (historically) for training storms and flooding
potential. However, the mean 850-300mb steering winds are forecast
to be weak at 10 knots, which is not enough to support continued
linear convective storms.

To complicate matters, some models are indicating the potential for
a weak inverted trough moving toward the FL peninsula from the east
Thursday night to Friday, and a tropical wave nearing the area from
the far western Caribbean Sea on Friday. There is a lot of
uncertainty regarding all of these synoptic and mesoscale features
that will determine the impacts we see here in east-central FL. For
now, continue to monitor the forecast for additional developments.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. The sea breeze
collision is expected across the interior later this afternoon and
will produce storms near/west of KSFB/KMCO from around 21-1Z.
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS reductions will be possible in stronger showers and
storms. Any lingering activity is expected to diminish from east to
west through 0-2Z. Then, dry conditions prevailing. Light SE winds
overnight becoming ESE around 8-12kts Sunday afternoon behind the
sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Current-Tonight...Favorable marine conds with a few storms psbl
mainly over the Space and Treasure Coast waters tonight into
Sunday. Winds and seas favorable otherwise for open water
navigation.

Sunday-Wednesday...Generally favorable boating conditions are
expected across the local waters to finish the weekend and the early
part of next week. The axis of the Bermuda High will lift to just
north of the Cape on Sunday, then move farther north on Monday. East
to east-southeast winds around 10 knots prevail, with some stronger
winds in the afternoon behind the sea breeze each day. The highest
coverage of lightning storms will be over the FL peninsula, though
scattered storms are possible along the coast as the sea breeze
develops. Seas mostly around 2 feet.

By mid week, a frontal boundary will sag south into North FL and
help to increase rain chances north of the Cape on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Offshore moving storms are possible in the late afternoon
each day, with frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds of 35
knots as the main threats to mariners.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  76  92 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  77  93  77  94 /  20  60  10  50
MLB  79  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  30
VRB  77  92  76  92 /  10  30  10  30
LEE  77  93  77  92 /  50  60  10  50
SFB  76  93  76  94 /  20  50  10  50
ORL  79  95  79  95 /  20  60  10  50
FPR  76  91  75  92 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

DIGITAL FORECASTS...Pendergrast
IDSS/RADAR...Schaper
AVIATION...Leahy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
501 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-202115-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
501 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered lightning storms will develop as the east
coast sea breeze forms by early afternoon and moves inland through
late day. Greatest storm coverage will be focused across the
interior, west of I-95, this afternoon and evening, with sea
breeze and storm outflow boundary collisions expected to occur
across or just west of Lake County toward sunset. Some stronger
storms will again be possible, mainly across inland areas, with
the main threats being frequent lightning strikes, strong wind
gusts to 40 to 50 mph, locally heavy rainfall and small hail.
Remember, no place outside is safe when thunderstorms are in the
area. Head indoors when thunder is heard!

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Weak steering winds will lead to slow and variable storm motion
today. This will allow any stronger storms to produce locally
heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches in a 60 to 90 minute period. This
may cause temporary standing water issues along roadways and poor
drainage areas, especially for locations that have already
received heavy rainfall over the past few days.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk of rip currents will exist at area beaches today.
Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Hot and humid conditions expected today, with highs in the low to
mid 90s and peak heat indices between 102 and 107 over much of
east central Florida. If outdoors, take frequent breaks indoors
and stay hydrated. Also, never leave children or pets in a vehicle
unattended.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered slow-moving lightning storms will develop
across the area this afternoon and evening as the east coast sea
breeze moves inland and collides with the west coast sea breeze
west of Orlando toward sunset. A few stronger storms will be
capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 35 knots, mainly
across inland lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Scattered afternoon and evening lightning storms are forecast
each day through early next week, with greatest storm coverage
expected across the interior, west of I-95. Isolated stronger
storms will be possible each day, producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Increasing moisture
will lead to a rise in rain chances and a greater potential for
locally heavy rainfall across the area into the mid to late week.

Afternoon peak heat indices are forecast to reach between 102 and
107 through rest of the weekend into early next week.

A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected at the
beaches this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
559 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

FLZ045-202230-
Orange FL-
559 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Orange
County through 630 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Universal Studios, or near Windermere. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Ocoee, Winter Garden, Windermere and Bay Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2836 8161 2853 8160 2862 8148 2845 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 022DEG 3KT 2850 8148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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