Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1035 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Dangerous Heat Index Values Today with a Threat for Strong
Thunderstorms...

Current...A more active day is expected as a surface trough and
weak frontal boundary drag south through the area. As of late
morning, a large area of convection extends along the FL/GA border
soon to reach Jacksonville and the outer periphery of the KMLB
radar. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms to areas generally
north of I-4 to account for motion of these storms, but the
greater threat for strong to severe weather will arrive later in
the day. Locally, conditions remain clear and quiet with a few
onshore streaming mid- level clouds along the Volusia and Space
coasts.

Today-Tonight...As the trough and frontal boundary shift southward,
forecast PW will rise from the 1.60" detected in the 10Z XMR
sounding to near 2.00" by the mid afternoon. This will lead to the
highest coverage of showers and storms seen all week, with an
atypical development pattern. CAMs predict a large scale boundary
and associated convection dipping south through the area similar to
what is depicted in current radar imagery, with activity enhanced
along additional outflows and the developing east coast sea breeze.
Timing still remains a bit uncertain, with most meso models holding
off on widespread convection until the latter half of the afternoon,
with activity lingering beyond sunset especially for the Treasure
Coast and Lake Okeechobee. Still, regardless of timing, parameters
are supportive of strong to marginally severe storms, those typical
of summertime afternoon convection in Florida. Temps at 500mb
dropped to -10C which is a bit cooler than forecast soundings
suggested, so confidence has increased in the potential for
sustainable strong storms. Highest coverage of 60% PoP is favored
over the interior, but zippering storms along the east coast sea
breeze (Volusia & Brevard) are also anticipated as well.

In addition to the threat for strong storms will be the oppressive
and above normal heat as afternoon highs climb to the mid to upper
90s and even reaching 100F across the interior. Max heat index
values will reach above 108 and even towards 110-111F between 1pm-
4pm, prompting the need for a Heat Advisory for portions of the
area. While it will be very hot today, the timing of storms later
this afternoon may prevent the hottest temperatures from actually
being reached, but confidence in the timing of rain is lower than
the confidence in heat. By dusk, temperatures will fall back to the
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Approaching boundary from the north will increase the chance for
afternoon convection at all site as it interacts with the east coast
sea breeze. 12Z package added TEMPO groups for all sites except
those south of KMLB with increasing confidence in MVFR/IFR impacts
and gusty winds associated with storms. Activity already developing
over KJAX this morning and will shift towards KDAB/KLEE by 18-19Z,
moving through the forecast area into the evening. VFR outside of
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Current through tonight...(previous) Winds have been steadily
veering from S-SW this morning, and this trend will continue as
flow becomes WSW to W this afternoon through tonight. Winds will
temporarily back to SE near the Treasure Coast, possibly as far
north as Cape Canaveral, but will shift back to light west
overnight. Given steering flow and sea breeze considerations,
threat for strong Atlantic storms appears to be limited to areas
from the Cape northward. Speeds AOB 15kt with seas 2-3ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for today's date could be
approached or reached at our northern/interior climate sites:

Site......Record (Year) Fcst
Daytona Bch...99 (1985)  98
Leesburg.....100 (1981)  98
Sanford......101 (1998)  98
Orlando......101 (1921)  99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  98  75  91  74 /  50  40  40  20
MCO  99  75  94  74 /  60  50  70  20
MLB  94  75  90  75 /  40  40  60  30
VRB  94  73  90  74 /  40  40  70  30
LEE  98  76  93  74 /  60  50  60  20
SFB  98  75  94  74 /  60  50  60  20
ORL 100  78  95  76 /  60  50  70  20
FPR  93  73  89  73 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for Coastal Volusia-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Southern
     Brevard-Inland Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard-Northern
     Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake.

AM...None.
&&

Smith/Leahy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-190100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
255 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of central
Florida except Volusia county through 8 PM. Scattered strong to
locally severe storms will be possible as activity moves toward
the south at 15 to 20 mph. Storms could produce wind gusts of 50
to 60 mp, hail up to one inch, frequent lightning and torrential
rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches, which could cause
ponding of water on area roads, and temporary urban and poor
drainage flooding.

Storm motion will be toward the south at 15 to 20 mph. Always
move indoors to safety at the first sign of threatening skies, or
if you hear thunder.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, with widespread
readings in the upper 90s ahead of approaching storms will bring
heat index readings 102 and 107 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for portions of Central Florida this afternoon. Keep well-
hydrated, and take frequent rest breaks, preferably in an air-
conditioned area.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents continues in the surf
zone along the central Florida Atlantic beaches. The risk will be
highest through sunset due to tidal effects. To reduce your risk
of becoming caught in the seaward pull of a rip current, swim only
within sight of a lifeguard, and never enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Boaters should be on the lookout for strong storms capable of
producing wind gusts in excess of 35 knots, lightning and hail
approaching quickly from the north. The greatest chance for
storms will be over interior lakes as well as the Intracoastal and
nearshore Atlantic waters from Cape Canaveral southward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms will remain
high Sunday and Monday as a weak frontal boundary drops into the
area and stalls. A few strong storms will remain possible. Storm
chances will decrease from Tuesday onward, as conditions become
increasingly hot and dry once again through mid to late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should closely monitor weather conditions and activate
as weather approaches.

Pendergrast/Smith/Cristaldi

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