Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
242 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...Guid suggests primary area for showers and locally
strong storms wl remain southward of the Clermont to New Smyrna
Beach area, with activity focusing toward the Atlc coast and Lake
Okeechobee by dusk and afterward. Main hazards wl be gusty winds
to around 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall-frequent lightning.

Activity should diminish by around 10 PM over land while
continuing offshore. Overnight low temperatures wl fall into the
low to mid 70s. Some pre-dawn showers wl become possible over Lake
county, and the western I-4 corridor early Saturday.

from prev disc...

Saturday-Sunday...The stalled frontal boundary across the Southeast
will linger through the weekend, which combined with a mid level
trough, will lead to increased rain chances Saturday (60%) and
Sunday (40-60%). Southwesterly flow will continue advecting
substantial moisture (model PWATs 2"+) and pushing afternoon highs
to around 90. The flow regime favors an early onset of showers and
thunderstorms inland, pushing northeastward through the afternoon,
then colliding with the pinned east coast sea breeze in the evening.
Strong storms will be possible, especially along the sea breeze
collision, where model CAPE values are around 2000 J/kg and DCAPE
values around 750 J/Kg. Combined with 500 mb temperatures around -
8C, strong winds and hail will possible. Stout flow will keep
showers and storms moving to the northeast, limiting the flooding
potential, but locations that receive multiple rounds and areas that
have already seen substantial rainfall the last few days will be
susceptible to localized flooding. Afternoon showers and storms will
push offshore or dissipate late in the evening. Overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Mid level ridging will build into the Gulf of
Mexico while at the surface extensive high pressure across the
Atlantic will extend to Florida. This will bring rain chances back
closer to climatology, around 20-40% mainly across the interior each
afternoon then clearing around sunset. Winds will be generally
southerly to light and variable, not favoring either sea breeze
which will march inland and meet near the center of the state. The
lack of steering flow will bring the risk of flooding back as storm
motion will be slow and erratic. Temperatures creep up in the
southerly flow, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 90s and heat
indices pushing close to 100. Overnight lows will be in the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
More pronounced westerly flow wl keep showers and ocnl storms in
the forecast along the E Coast into early tonight. Coverage should
remain south of a KDAB-KLEE line into evening, gradually shift
offshore aft 11/02Z. Primary threats remain lightning strikes,
brief torrential rainfall, and gusty downburst winds. Light to
calm winds tonight. Deep moisture lingers Sat with continued WRLY
flow, possible early initiation again, with some strong
storms and rather high overall coverage areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Current-Tonight...W/SW winds into the overnight. Seas will range
from 2-3 feet with some 4 foot seas possible well offshore tonight.
Main concern for boaters will be scattered to numerous storms
pushing offshore through late afternoon and early evening,
producing lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Saturday-Tuesday...A stalled frontal boundary will enhance inland
rain chances (40-60%), which will be pushed offshore in the
afternoon and evening by southwesterly flow 10-15 kts. Lightning
storms scattered to numerous Saturday, isolated to scattered
Sunday, and isolated to scattered Monday. Winds back to southerly
around 10-15 kts Monday-Tue as high pressure builds across the
Atlantic basin. Seas 2-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  73  90 /  30  60  40  50
MCO  74  90  74  91 /  30  60  40  40
MLB  74  88  73  89 /  40  70  40  40
VRB  72  88  71  90 /  40  70  50  30
LEE  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  30  40
SFB  74  90  74  90 /  30  60  40  40
ORL  77  91  76  91 /  30  60  40  40
FPR  72  88  72  89 /  40  70  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

DIGITAL FORECASTS...Pendergrast
DSS/RADAR....Schaper
AVIATION/RADAR...Sedlock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
834 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-102100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
834 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous lightning storms will develop from mid day
into the afternoon, and move east to northeast up to 15 to 20 mph
across east central Florida and offshore. Some stronger storms
will be possible, especially southeast of the I-4 corridor toward
Brevard County and the Treasure Coast this afternoon. Main storm
threats will be the likelihood of frequent lightning, strong wind
gusts up to 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy downpours.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Some stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall up to 1 to 3 inches in a short time frame. This could
lead to minor flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas,
especially southeast of the I-4 corridor where heavier rainfall
has occurred over the past couple days.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at area beaches. Always
swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous lightning storms will push quickly eastward
across inland lakes, and eventually offshore this afternoon and
early evening. Some stronger storms will be capable of producing
wind gusts near or in excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning.
The areas of primary concern will be along the Brevard county and
Treasure coast intracoastal waters, as well as the nearshore Atlantic
waters.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A brief waterspout of two will be possible mainly near the
Intracoastal waterway, or barrier islands of the Space and
Treasure Coasts associated with developing storms during this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and early evening lightning storms
are expected through this weekend, with coverage decreasing slightly
early next week. Stronger storms will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy
rainfall. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected Saturday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed in
the event of any warnings.

Weitlich/Pendergrast

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022

FLZ053-101930-
Osceola FL-
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Osceola
County through 330 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Kissimmee, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Kissimmee and Forever Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2799 8138 2817 8094 2793 8096 2787 8130
      2789 8130 2790 8131 2792 8131 2794 8135
      2795 8134 2796 8135 2797 8135 2798 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 253DEG 22KT 2799 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schaper

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