Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1059 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

.UPDATE...
No major changes were made to the previous forecast. Mostly dry
conditions continue late this morning with higher cloud cover near
and north of Orlando. Farther south, satellite imagery depicts
the initiation of a cumulus field near Lake Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast. This is where a few rain showers have formed, just
south of Port Salerno and Stuart, and activity will continue to
slowly develop through early afternoon. As the east coast sea
breeze advances inland after 2 PM, rain and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage for much of east central Florida. Coastal
locations may miss out on the highest chances for rain with the
primary focus for thunderstorms being near and west of Interstate
95. Activity will be maximized along the west/east coast sea
breeze collision, likely to occur over the interior. Storm
movement today will again be in a north-northwesterly direction.
Expect any stronger storms to produce torrential rainfall,
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds around 50 mph, and even
some hail.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR continue outside of afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms.
Surface winds will become SSE thru 19z as the sea breeze develops.
The highest coverage of TSRA is expected for interior terminals
20z-03z. Brief VIS/CIG reductions to IFR are possible, in addition
to gusty winds. TEMPO groups likely beginning at 20z with AMD as
coverage and intensity of convection becomes clearer this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to the previous forecast. Weak ridging will break down
with increased southerly flow around 15 kts this afternoon and
evening. Isolated rain showers and storms are possible along the
coast thru early afternoon before the sea breeze pushes inland.
Seas 2-3ft, except where locally higher due to storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  73  91  74 /  40  40  40  30
MCO  95  74  93  74 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  91  75  89  76 /  50  20  40  30
VRB  92  73  90  74 /  40  20  40  40
LEE  93  74  92  74 /  70  40  60  20
SFB  93  74  92  74 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  95  76  94  77 /  60  30  50  20
FPR  91  73  88  74 /  40  20  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Schaper/Watson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1108 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-142000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1108 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to locally numerous showers and lightning storms will
move toward the north or northeast at around 10 mph across east
central Florida this afternoon and evening. The highest coverage
will be over inland locations. A few storms will become strong to
potentially severe as they interact with the sea breezes and
other outflow boundaries, producing frequent lightning strikes,
strong wind gusts up to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Move
indoors to safety at the first sign of threatening skies or if
you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is possible today, especially with slow
storm motions of 5 to 10 mph. A quick 1 to 2 inches of rain in an
hour with locally higher amounts of 3 or more inches may cause
local road, urban, and poor drainage flooding.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Hot and humid conditions will continue across the region today,
with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat index
values around 102 to 107. If outdoors today, make sure that you
stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks in air conditioned spaces.
Also, never leave a child or pet unattended in a vehicle.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at all
east central Florida beaches today. To reduce your risk of getting
caught in the seaward pull of a rip current, always swim near a
lifeguard and never enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few stronger storms may be capable of producing wind gusts to
35 to 45 knots through the afternoon and early evening hours as
they move north to northwest around 5 to 10 knots over inland
lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and lightning storms are
forecast through this weekend and into early next week with the
highest chances across the interior. The main threats from any
stronger storms will be frequent lightning, as well as gusty
winds, and torrential downpours.

A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue
through late week and into the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Formal activation of SKYWARN spotter networks is not expected to be
needed today. However, please report any rainfall amounts of 3
inches or greater to the National Weather Service office in
Melbourne.

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

FLZ164-264-141845-
Inland Martin FL-Coastal Martin FL-
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Martin County
through 245 PM EDT...

At 217 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Indiantown, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Indiantown, J And S Fish Camp, Palm City and Port Mayaca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2700 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2712 8068
      2720 8063 2720 8028 2703 8027 2696 8034
      2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 116DEG 13KT 2703 8048

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

FLZ058-159-164-259-264-141945-
Okeechobee FL-Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-
Inland Martin FL-Coastal Martin FL-
304 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of St. Lucie,
southeastern Okeechobee and western Martin Counties through 345 PM
EDT...

At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Four Seasons Estates, or 7 miles east of Treasure Island, moving
northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Treasure Island, Indiantown, Okeechobee, Palm City and Four Seasons
Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2701 8063 2711 8066 2716 8071 2721 8079
      2721 8081 2719 8084 2715 8086 2719 8091
      2720 8094 2722 8095 2722 8098 2725 8098
      2726 8100 2730 8100 2731 8103 2756 8060
      2756 8057 2714 8026 2696 8052 2696 8054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 121DEG 16KT 2723 8067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Watson