Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Melbourne, FL

201 
WWUS52 KMLB 201252
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
852 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

FLC095-097-201330-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-220520T1330Z/
Orange FL-Osceola FL-
852 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

At 851 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Osceola
Heritage Park, or near Saint Cloud, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Ocoee, Saint Cloud and Wedgefield. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2846 8098 2817 8129 2819 8143 2857 8156
      2852 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 184DEG 25KT 2826 8134 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Fehling

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
357 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Widespread Showers/Storms With Locally Heavy Rainfall Today...

Current...Local METARs and CCSFS profiler data place the surface
ridge axis just south of the Cape early this morning. Main item
of interest is the large cluster of convection along the leading
edge of a deep Caribbean tropical moisture plume spreading NW-N
from the FL Straits into SOFL indicating that the well-advertised
wet pattern starting today is coming to fruition. Current temps
are in the L-M70s with Tds having risen into the L70s die to the
increasingly humid low level flow.

Today-tonight...High PWAT (1.75"-2.00") air will spread northward
through central FL through the day, leading to high coverage of
diurnal showers/storms. Expect early onset (by mid morning) across
the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region, with activity steadily developing
northward through the day. While enhanced onshore wind component
(ECSB circ) will try to develop, initial and secondary (outflow
generated convection is likely to become dominant before a well-
defined sea breeze boundary can form. Regardless of this, expect
widespread (80-90 percent) coverage across the area today with
copious rainfall amounts /1-2" average/locally 3-5"+ where storms
and boundaries merge or collide. Brief gusty winds and frequent
lightning are also expected near these collisions, with rapidly
northward-propagating outflows regenerating storms successively
farther in that direction. Max temps should "only" reach the U80s
-L90s, although some southern locations where storms begin the
earliest may only see M80s.

Scattered storms linger well into the evening, mainly across the
north and possibly central CWA with POPs 40 south to 60 north.
Mins in the L70s.

Sat-Sun...A flow regime featuring deep moisture ushered across
the region since late week, along with mid level disturbances
transiting the SE and N Fl wl bring rather high rain chcs. During
Sat, ongoing activity ascd with morning showers and a few storms
will increase notably with diurnal sfc heating and PWAT invof 2
inches to produce numerous showers and storms transiting east
across ECFL. Primary concerns wl be locally heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning and sfc wind gusts in stronger storms. Higher
coverage wl occur across north and central sections into early
evening. A partial collapse of steering, along with a developing
ridge aloft near the peninsula should reduce coverage somewhat
Sunday, but wl keep a sct chc in the fcst primarily in the aftn
for most of the area.

Extended...Broad and somewhat weak ridge aloft locally by Mon wl
slowly become more pronounced early-mid week, leading to a
reduction on avbl moisture, and lowering of PoP to Iso-Sct Tue-
Wed. An onshore flow pattern will bring seasonal temperatures with
lows in the L-M 70s and highs in the U80s to L90s and better rain
chcs generally inland from the coast. LL flow patter wl become
primarily sly toward the end of the workweek, bringing an
anticipated increase in rain chcs roughly by next Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
With high coverage and redevelopment of showers/storms expected to
spread from S-N today, 06Z TAF package showed staggered onset and
end times (by about 4hr far south to far north), with TEMPO groups
for both TSRA during the late morning through late afternoon, and
SHRA from mid afternoon through early evening, again staggered S-N.
VFR with developing MVFR-VFR multilayered CIGs BKN030-060/080-100,
followed by increasing coverage of IFR VSBYS in SHRA/TS. Activity
is expected slowly wind down 00Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...Axis of the western Atlantic will lift into central
FL today with S-SSW winds 10-12kt backing to SE near 15kt in the
afternoon (especially near the coast. Winds remain S-SE tonight as
the synoptic flow backs in response to the ridge axis continuing to
lift toward the NEFL waters. Seas 2-3ft. Likely to see higher winds
and seas will near increasing coverage of showers/storms from late
morning through early evening.

Sat-Sun...Seas range from 2 to 3 feet this weekend with winds S to
SE 10 to 15 kts. Winds and seas have potential to be enhanced by
storms over the waters as well as storms moving offshore from the
mainland, esp for the nearshore waters N of Sebastian Inlet each
day.

Extended...Favorable marine conditions with a reduction of storms
early - mid week. Expect winds around 9 to 12 kts with seas 2 ft
Mon-Tue, becoming 3 to 4 ft into midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  72  85  72 /  70  50  80  30
MCO  92  74  89  72 /  90  60  80  30
MLB  89  74  86  74 /  80  50  80  30
VRB  90  73  88  72 /  80  50  60  30
LEE  91  72  86  72 /  90  70  80  30
SFB  93  73  88  72 /  90  60  80  30
ORL  93  75  89  74 /  90  60  80  30
FPR  89  73  88  72 /  80  40  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Pendergrast
AVIATION...Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
535 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-201600-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
535 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A northward surge of Caribbean moisture into central Florida will
result in numerous to widespread showers and scattered lightning
storms across east central Florida today. Activity is expected to
initially begin from around Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast
through mid to late morning, then spread north across the rest of
east central Florida through the afternoon. Scattered showers and
a few storms will linger through late evening, mainly north of
Lake Kissimmee and Melbourne, and may not completely end across
the far north until after midnight.

Storm motion will be toward the north-northeast at 15 to 20 mph,
with multiple rounds of storms possible at any one location. Brief
wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, cloud to ground lightning, and heavy
downpours will accompany today's storms. Move indoors to safety
at the first sign of threatening skies, or if you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Torrential rain is expected from today's storms. Many areas will
receive between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall, with some locations
which see repeated rounds of storms pickup up 3 to 5 inches, and
possibly a little more. This will produce rapid inundation of
roads, and other urban and other poorly drained, low lying areas.

Never attempt to cross flooded roads, as the water depth may be
too great to allow your vehicle to make it safely through. Turn
around, don't drown.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms will also be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of
35 knots and locally higher waves as they move northward across
area lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway, and local Atlantic waters.
Boaters should water for storms approaching from the south today
and seek safe harbor ahead of any storms.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There will be a Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents at the
central Florida Atlantic beaches today. While rip currents will be
present all day, they will be most numerous until 930 AM this
morning, and again after 300 PM.

Remember to always swim within sight of a lifeguard and never enter
the ocean alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
High coverage of showers and storms is expected again on Saturday,
along with a continued threat for localized flooding of poorly
drained areas. Storm coverage will decrease next week, with only
isolated activity expected along the coast and scattered showers
and storms inland. Cloud to ground lightning strikes, torrential
rainfall and gusty winds will be possible in stronger storms.

The rip current threat will remain moderate at the central Florida
Atlantic beaches this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. However,
please relay any reports of flooding or rainfall amounts of two
inches or greater to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

Cristaldi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
506 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

FLZ058-259-264-200945-
Okeechobee FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Martin FL-
506 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern St.
Lucie, southeastern Okeechobee and Martin Counties through 545 AM
EDT...

At 506 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Indiantown, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Treasure Island, Indiantown, Four Seasons Estates, Tradition and
Saint Lucie West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2711 8066 2718 8074 2721 8079 2720 8081
      2746 8084 2743 8041 2696 8025 2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0906Z 177DEG 25KT 2699 8057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Pendergrast