Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Melbourne, FL

982 
WWUS52 KMLB 151740
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
140 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

FLC095-151815-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220415T1815Z/
Orange FL-
140 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

At 140 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Avalon Park,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Wedgefield, Orlando International Airport, Avalon Park and
Bithlo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2858 8127 2858 8104 2835 8108 2842 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 017DEG 13KT 2850 8119 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Weitlich

391 
WWUS52 KMLB 151758
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
158 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

FLC095-151808-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220415T1815Z/
Orange FL-
158 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2858 8127 2858 8104 2835 8108 2842 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 017DEG 13KT 2844 8121 

$$

Weitlich

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1141 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.UPDATE...

It's a little more active this morning than the past couple of
days with radar imagery showing scattered showers and lightning
storms near the Treasure Coast with numerous showers and isolated
lightning storms just offshore south of Brevard county. Surface
analysis charts show the tail end of the frontal boundary that's
been slowly moving across the Deep South and into central Florida
now draped across portions of central Florida which is actually a
little farther south than anticipated/previously modeled. Water
vapory imagery makes this apparent with an abundance of moisture
seen in the low-to-mid levels just to the south and east of Cape
Canaveral but much drier air is observed to the north and west.

The aforementioned setup indicates a drier and more stable airmass
is now in place north of the Cape with more moist and unstable
conditions to the south and east. Additionally, to the north and
west of the Cape, winds back to the north-northeast with winds
veering to the southeast to the south which further signals the
front has stalled across east-central Florida. Furthermore, this
morning's observed skew-t soundings, as well as forecast skew-t
soundings show that the drier air has won to this point and will likely
limit POPs somewhat today thanks to high pressure over the
western Atlantic, in addition to, an area of high pressure over
the Carolinas. The "high pressure sandwich" has led to drier air
than many of the hi-res models have tried to paint over the area
recently, especially in the mid-levels. Would think that guidance
is too aggressive again today, especially the CAMs unless the
boundary lifts back north and moisture is pulled northward,
however, confidence isn't great that will occur, especially due
to persistence.

Therefore, I've adjusted POPs downwards, especially to the north
and west of Cape Canaveral where the driest air is located due to
the proximity to the mid- level ridge with synoptic forcing
weakening inland into the evening as the shortwave trough moves
farther off the coast of Florida. The best chance for showers and
lightning storms will be to the south and west of Cape Canaveral
and especially towards the far southern interior towards Lake
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast as sea breeze interactions occur
with the frontal boundary and trigger isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms to develop this afternoon with
diurnal heating aiding in convective development. Rain chances
will diminish towards sunset with drier air expected to filter in
from the northwest overnight. Isolated strong storms cannot be
ruled out with moderate instability, sufficient bulk shear,
steepening lapse rates, 800-1,000 J/kg of DCAPE, and cool
temperatures aloft with temperatures at 500mb around -12C. Any
strong storms that develop will have the potential to produce
small hail, wing gusts of 40 to 50mph, heavy rainfall with minor
flooding possible, and frequent lightning strikes. Afternoon highs
are forecast to top out in the low to upper 80s with the warmest
temperatures expected well inland.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022/

.DISCUSSION...

Current...Continued warm and humid across ECFL early this morning
with light to calm winds at the surface. Temperatures remain well
into the 60s to L70s areawide with dewpoints also in the 60s to
around 70. Considerably to MCloudy skies with mainly dry conditions
presently across land and increasing convection over the local
coastal waters, especially Gulf Stream. The low-level winds are
light and we will be monitoring for any low stratus or patchy fog,
especially across areas of the interior that realized measurable
precip this past night. A weakening frontal boundary across north FL
continues to sink slowly southward. This feature may lie near/across
the I-4 corridor by around sunrise this morning. The local HRRR
keeps land mostly dry for the remainder of the night, but cannot
rule out a sprinkle or isolated shower.

Today-Tonight...The aforementioned front will continue to sink
across the central/south-central peninsula during the day and become
hard to discern by late in the day as predominant NE/ENE/E flow
encompasses ECFL. Adequate PWAT values of 1.40-1.70" will pool
across the area. Our 500 mb temps remain between -11C/-12C areawide.
As the atmosphere heats the land and onshore flow becomes
established and (ECSB) pushes inland by early this afternoon, we
will see an increase in PoP chances. Weak shortwave energy will aid
in convective development across the southern half of the peninsula
today. Highest PoPs (50pct) will reside from near the Cape
southward. As the activity becomes more organized it will push
southwestward with the majority of convection in western/southern FL
by early evening. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out this
afternoon, especially south of Melbourne and toward Lake Okeechobee.
Primary storm threats remain occasional to frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes, locally heavy downpours, gusty winds of 40 to 50
mph and small hail. Our onshore flow will veer more ESE/SE this
evening and overnight with generally dry conditions as we venture
further past sunset.

Afternoon highs remain above seasonal normals, near 80 to L80s at
the coast and M-U 80s further into the interior. Overnight lows mild
and conditions humid with values mainly in the 60s to around 70. We
may see some patchy fog late overnight into early Sat morning,
especially away from the coast across the interior.

Saturday-Sunday...The unsettled pattern will continue into the
weekend, with Sunday remaining the more active day of the period
with an approaching front. A mid level ridge across the central US
on Saturday will slide slowly eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic
states on Sunday. At the same time, an upper level trough over the
Great Lakes region on Saturday afternoon will begin to slowly move
eastward into Sunday, pushing a cold front into the Deep South which
is expected to stall over NE Florida on Sunday.

Locally, expect increased moisture over the area through the period,
with the east coast sea breeze forming each afternoon. Lingering
moisture into Saturday from the frontal passage on Friday along with
the the east coast sea breeze, will aid in forming afternoon showers
and lightning storms. While the models are not in great agreement
for Saturday, especially with intensity, activity is generally
favored across the southern interior. Forecast PW values for
Saturday are not that enthusiastic (generally less than 1.50"),
thus, have leaned on the drier side and limited the higher precip
chances (PoP 30 percent) to the far western interior of Osceola and
Okeechobee counties.

Moisture is then expected to increase out ahead of the approaching
cold front and spread across the area on Sunday, with forecast PW
values on Sunday ranging from 1.48" to 1.70". A few storms may be
strong as forecast soundings continue to show modest CAPE (1500-2000
J/kg), sufficient shear (SFC-6km ranging from 16 to 28 kt), and cool
temperatures aloft (500mb temperatures ranging from -11 to -13 C)
through the time frame. Main storm threat with any strong storm will
be gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and small hail.
Afternoon temperatures will continue the warming trend with highs in
the low to mid 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s across the
interior. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s, except low
60s across the far north.

Monday-Thursday...The aforementioned cold front will push through
east central Florida on Monday, with high pressure building over the
region behind the front. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
scattered lightning storms on Monday afternoon as the frontal
boundary pushes through. Adequate moisture will remain over east
central Florida Monday night and into Tuesday morning, supporting
isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms (early
evening), with the highest PoPs occurring along the coastal
communities, extending as far inland as eastern Seminole to eastern
Okeechobee counties. Precip chances decrease into Tuesday afternoon
as dry air begins to push in, however, isolated to scattered showers
will be possible from Port Canaveral to Orlando southward, with the
best chance for isolated lightning storms occurring across Martin
County. Precip chances will remain limited Wednesday and Thursday
with isolated to scattered showers possible, mainly south of the I-4
corridor. Southwest winds on Monday morning will veer northward in
the afternoon behind the front, with an east coast sea breeze
expecting to form and push inland. Breezy conditions expected
Tuesday through Thursday with northeast winds 10-13 mph across the
interior and just below 15 mph along the coast, with higher gusts
possible.

Afternoon temperatures will see a slight cool down behind the front,
with temperatures around to slightly above normal for this time of
year on Monday, before becoming more seasonable Tuesday and
Wednesday behind the front. Temperatures will return to around to
slight above normal on Thursday. Max temperatures will be in mid 80s
across the interior and low 80s along the coast on Monday, with
temperatures falling to the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will then increase back to the mid 80s
across the interior and low 80s along the coast on Thursday as a
warming trend begins. Overnight lows will range from low 60s to to
mid 60s on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and low 60s, except upper
50s across the far north, on Tuesday. Min RH values will begin to
fall as dry air filters into the area behind the front, with Min RH
values falling into the low to mid 40s across Lake county on Tuesday
and from Kissimmee to Daytona Beach northward and westward on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Light winds early this morning and will be on the
lookout for pockets of low stratus and patchy fog, especially near
interior TAF sites where last evening's rain fell. Generally VFR
from mid-morning on, though generally considerable cloudiness
forecast as a weakening frontal boundary slides south into the
central peninsula. An onshore flow regime develops by late
morning/early afternoon and will provide a focus for scattered
shower and isolated lightning storm development this afternoon with
increasing coverage/intensity from near the Cape south and westward.
MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Tempo groups as appropriate and as
confidence allows. Activity spreads into southern/western FL by
early evening. Light ESE/SE winds tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Decent instability and energy aloft along with adequate
moisture will promote SCT showers/lightning storms this morning,
especially across the Gulf Stream, as a weak frontal boundary
slides south into the area. As the sea breeze becomes established
late morning/early afternoon, showers/storms will favor inland
areas with the onshore flow regime taking convection into the
western/southern peninsula by early evening. Some strong storms
early and along the coast early this afternoon, featuring cloud-
to-water lightning strikes, heavy downpours, gusty winds in excess
of 34 kts and coin- size hail. Winds/seas locally higher invof
stronger activity. Boating conditions appear to improve late in
the day and this evening.

Southerly light winds may transition to a northerly component early
this morning into early afternoon across the Volusia waters on the
backside of this weakening boundary. An onshore wind component
develops areawide by early afternoon. Outside of showers and storms
wind speeds generally AOB 15 kts, but directional component will
become distorted at times due to the convection. Winds veer more ESE
this evening and SE/SSE overnight. Seas generally 2-3 ft today and
may build to 4-5 ft well offshore north of the Cape overnight.

Saturday-Tuesday...Expect an unsettled pattern this weekend and into
early next week as moisture increases across the local area ahead of
an approaching cold front. Thus, isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms expected each afternoon through the weekend. The
next frontal boundary is expected to push through Monday, which will
bring scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
to the local waters. Precip and storm chances will decrease Tuesday,
with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible, mainly from
Port Canaveral southward. The east coast sea breeze is expected to
form in the afternoon through Monday, with wind speeds around 10 KT,
before northeast flow dominates on Tuesday with wind speeds 15-20 KT
by the afternoon. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft this weekend before seas
build to 5 ft in the offshore waters on Monday, and up to 6 ft on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  66  85  66 /  30   0  20  20
MCO  88  67  91  69 /  30   0  20  10
MLB  82  68  84  67 /  40  10  20  20
VRB  84  67  85  66 /  50  10  20  20
LEE  86  67  88  68 /  20   0  20   0
SFB  86  66  89  68 /  30   0  20  10
ORL  88  68  91  70 /  30   0  20  10
FPR  83  67  85  66 /  50  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM....Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-160000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
400 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
As the atmosphere heats, along with pooling moisture, the local
sea breeze and additional mesoscale boundary interactions will
promote scattered showers and lightning storms, highest coverage
from the Cape southward late this morning through the afternoon.
From mid to late afternoon the increasing coverage and intensity
of storms will focus across the interior, especially south of
Orlando as activity pushes deeper into western and southern
Florida.

Primary storm threats will be occasional to frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning strikes, heavy downpours, locally strong wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph in strongest activity, and perhaps some
small hail.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There remains a Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at
all Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Remember to always
swim within sight of a lifeguard and never enter the surf alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Lightning storms will be capable of producing winds up to 35
knots on inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway and adjacent
Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast across east-
central Florida each afternoon and evening through the weekend and
into early next week. Occasional lightning strikes, heavy
downpours, and gusty winds will be the main threats with storms.

A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will continue into the
weekend.

Poor to Hazardous boating conditions return to the local Atlantic
waters late Monday through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

FLZ046-151730-
Seminole FL-
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Seminole County through 130 PM EDT...

At 1250 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Geneva. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oviedo, Chuluota and Geneva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2876 8115 2875 8106 2872 8103 2871 8104
      2870 8102 2868 8102 2867 8101 2861 8104
      2861 8122 2862 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 012DEG 3KT 2869 8110

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
102 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

FLZ154-254-151745-
Inland Indian River FL-Coastal Indian River FL-
102 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Indian River
County through 145 PM EDT...

At 102 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fellsmere. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sebastian, Fellsmere, Roseland and Vero Lake Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2766 8051 2769 8072 2782 8068 2782 8051
      2783 8051 2783 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 012DEG 3KT 2779 8060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
105 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

FLZ045-046-151730-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
105 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Seminole and east central Orange Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 105 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chuluota, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Oviedo, Wedgefield, Avalon Park and Bithlo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2866 8122 2865 8101 2845 8101 2846 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 011DEG 14KT 2863 8111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
119 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

FLZ045-053-151800-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
119 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Orange
and northeastern Osceola Counties through 200 PM EDT...

At 118 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Lone Cabbage Fish Camp, moving southwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Orange
and northeastern Osceola Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8106 2835 8087 2812 8091 2825 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 040DEG 7KT 2830 8100

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Weitlich