Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
425 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...
...Tornado Watch 43 in effect for Lake Orange Seminole and
Volusia counties through 11 AM...
...Strong Late Season Cold Front Passes Today...
...Windy with Storms Today, then Turning Much Colder Tonight...

Currently...Strong to severe storms over N FL signal approach of the
cold front to the region with local winds significantly increasing
aloft and abundant moisture in place.

Today...Through daybreak, surface winds will become breezy with a
developing chc of showers early across north central FL. A Wind
Advisory commences at 9 AM areawide through 7 PM. Hi Res guid
indicates initial impacts from the approaching pre-frontal
convection wl overspread locations north of I-4 by mid-morning, with
an organized line of showers and storms moving across the I-4
corridor and Space coast by late morning. Storms have potential to
be strong to locally severe due to strong environmental winds and
primary hazards will be wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, along with
lightning and very heavy rain. The threat of severe storms along
with the chance of a brief tornado exists mainly from around Osceola
and Brevard counties northward through midday before the line loses
organization while translating across Lake Okeechobee and the
Treasure coast early in the afternoon. Behind the passing front it
will remain windy with an end to precipitation from mid afternoon
through nightfall from N-S.

Tonight...Attention will focus to a relatively rare late season
night one advection cold event. With clearing skies, significantly
colder air will plummet south across the region, and the combination
of air temps in the mid to upper 30s with winds of 10 to 15 mph will
produce wind chill readings around 30 to 35 degrees over all inland
counties past midnight through sunrise Sunday. A Wind Chill Advisory
is in place for all zones except the Treasure Coast from 1 AM
through 9 AM Sunday. Local winds will begin to become onshore along
the Brevard and Treasure Coast beaches, sparing coastal locations
from the coldest temperature and associated lowest wind chill
readings early Sunday.

Sunday-Monday...The cold front that passed through the local area
on Saturday will continue to push southward away from the Florida
peninsula. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will build over
the Florida peninsula through the time period. North winds around
10 mph on Sunday morning will veer to the northeast by Sunday
afternoon with 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds will then veer on
Monday, becoming east by the afternoon with wind speeds around 10
mph.

Dry conditions through the time period with no mentionable rain
chances. Below normal temperatures expected on Sunday as cool and
dry air filters into the area, with temperatures rising to around
normal for this time of year on Monday. Afternoon highs on Sunday
will be in the low to mid 60s across the north, and mid to upper
60s across the south under partly cloudy skies, and highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 70s area wide under mostly cloudy
skies. Overnight lows on Sunday will in the upper 40s along and
northwest of I-4, and low to mid 50s everywhere else, except low
60s along the immediate coast of the Treasure coast. Overnight
lows on Monday will be milder, with lows in the upper 50s to low
60s, except mid 60s along the immediate coast of the Treasure
Coast.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic will push eastward, pulling the ridge axis away from the
Florida peninsula on Wednesday. At the same time, a surface low
pressure will form over the TX/LA area on Tuesday, and continue to
push eastward through the time period, brining another cold front
through the local area on Wednesday. This will bring increased
moisture over the Florida peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday, with
scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms expected.

Highest rain chances will occur on Tuesday afternoon and
overnight, with PoPs 60 percent areawide. Rain chances then
slightly decrease across the north on Wednesday, with PoP 50
percent, and 60 percent across the south. East to southeast winds
5-10 mph Tuesday will veer southwest on Wednesday. A warming
trend with afternoon highs in the upper 70s along and north of
I-4, and low 80s everywhere else on Tuesday, and on Wednesday
highs will be in the upper 70s across the north, and low 80s
across the south. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s
areawide on Tuesday, and mid to upper 50s areawide, except low 60s
across the Treasure Coast on Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...High pressure will expand across Florida on
Thursday and remain through late week. Locally, isolated showers
across the Treasure Coast will continue on Thursday and Friday,
with everywhere else remaining mostly dry. Winds will veer
northward on Thursday, and then southeast by Friday afternoon.
Afternoon highs will be above normal through the time period, with
highs in the low 80s areawide on Thursday, and mid to upper 80s
across the interior, and low 80s along the coast on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Ongoing Wind Shear comments ascd with very strong BL
winds near 40 kts in the pre-dawn hours this morning. Strong winds
will mix to the sfc shortly after daybreak with S/SW gradient winds
25 to 30 kts all sites. Initial effects from organized line of
storms beginning around 10 AM through mid afternoon wl produce
episodes of tempo 1-2 hours of MVFR-IFR conds along with
convective gusts 35 to 45 kt at sites affected by storms. Fast
moving line of storms wl clear area by 12/20Z with lingering gusty
winds veering NW with gusts 20 to 25 kts through nightfall. VFR
conds wl prevail aft 12/21z areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Rapidly deteriorating conditions ascd with
approach, then passage of strong cold front. Gale conditions
commence with the warning period beginning at 7 AM this morning
continuing overnight. Seas forecast to become fully arisen early
Sunday with 6 to 8 ft seas near the immediate coast, and up to 13
ft offshore and over the Gulf Stream. Venturing over the open
waters is not recommended this weekend.

Sunday...Hazardous wind and sea conditions continue on Sunday.
Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for all of east central
Florida Atlantic waters on Sunday. Northeast winds 20-24KT Sunday
morning will decrease to 10-15 KT and veer east-northeast by the
afternoon. Seas will be 6-10 ft in the nearshore, with seas up to
13 ft in the far southern Treasure coast nearshore waters, and
8-13 ft in the offshore waters Sunday morning before decreasing to
4-9 ft in the nearshore waters, and 5-10 ft in the offshore
waters by the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions expected through
the time period, however isolated showers will be possible along
the Gulf Stream.

Monday-Wednesday...Improving wind and sea conditions through the
time period, however, poor to hazardous conditions are expected
through Tuesday. The Small Craft Advisory will likely be extended
through at least Monday morning. Increasing rain and lightning
storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday as another frontal boundary
makes its way towards the local area and pushes through. East to
southeast winds 10-15 KT through Tuesday before winds veer to the
south Tuesday night, then southwest on Wednesday. Seas will be 5-7
ft Monday morning, improving to 4-6 ft by the afternoon, before
becoming 3-5 ft by Wednesday afternoon. There will be a brief
period of 4-5 ft overnight on Monday before quickly returning to
4- 6ft by Tuesday morning. Small craft should exercise caution in
the offshore waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for
seas up to 6 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  37  64  51 /  90   0  10  10
MCO  78  39  67  53 / 100   0   0  10
MLB  78  41  67  57 /  90   0  10  10
VRB  76  45  68  57 /  80  10  10  10
LEE  70  35  64  49 / 100   0   0   0
SFB  74  39  65  52 /  90   0   0  10
ORL  74  39  67  54 /  90   0  10  10
FPR  77  43  69  57 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-
     Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
     Seminole-Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

     Tornado Watch until 11 AM EST this morning for Coastal Volusia-
     Inland Volusia-Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Lake.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM EST to 9 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal
     Volusia-Inland Volusia-Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-
     Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard-
     Southern Lake.

AM...Tornado Watch until 11 AM EST this morning for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM EST this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Watson
AVIATION...Pendergrast

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-122200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
420 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A line of fast moving, strong lightning storms will cross the area
rapidly from north to south from mid morning and into the afternoon.
Strong to severe storms will reach Lake, Volusia, Seminole, and
Orange Counties between 8 to 9 am, then reach Osceola and Brevard
Counties between 10 am and noon, and reach the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee County between noon and 1 pm.

The main threats expected with locally stronger storms will be
strong to damaging wind gusts of 60 mph, hail up to quarter size,
and frequent lightning strikes. A brief tornado or two is also
possible, mostly from Osceola to Brevard Counties northward.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Windy conditions develop across the area after daybreak today as
southwest to west winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 PM.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
Significantly colder temperatures will occur tonight with mid to
upper 30s along and west of Interstate 4. Wind chill readings
in the upper 20s to lower 30s are possible along and north of
Interstate Four, and from south of Interstate 4 to Lake
Okeechobee expect lows in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees,
with wind chills in the low to mid 30s. A Wind Chill Advisory
is in effect for all but the Treasure Coast tonight into Sunday
morning.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A strong current flowing parallel to the beach along with choppy
surf conditions will make surf conditions very hazardous.
Entering the water is not recommended.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Thunderstorm wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots are likely as a line of
strong to severe storms crosses the local waters and including area
lakes. A few wind gusts of 50 knots or greater will be possible
in the strongest storms. It is not recommended boating activities
occur over inland or coastal waters today.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A waterspout or two will be possible as the line of strong to
severe storms moves offshore from the coast. The threat for
waterspouts will be greatest north of Sebastian Inlet.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Gale conditions will develop after daybreak across all the local
waters ahead of and behind a strong cold front. Southwest winds of
20 to 25 knots this morning will increase to 25 to 30 knots in
the afternoon with frequent gusts to gale force expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Hazardous boating conditions on Saturday will continue for
portions of the Atlantic waters through early Monday. The
rip current risk will become high to extreme on Sunday and
remain high into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should closely monitor weather conditions and activate
as weather approaches.

Pendergrast