Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Melbourne, FL

731 
WWUS52 KMLB 160356
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1156 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

FLC095-160415-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-220316T0415Z/
Orange FL-
1156 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...

At 1155 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Christmas,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Wedgefield and Bithlo. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2861 8109 2861 8097 2860 8095 2846 8112
      2852 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 213DEG 14KT 2856 8106 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Leahy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
833 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong to Potentially Severe Storms Possible Tonight and Again
Wednesday Afternoon...

Current-Overnight...A warm front will develop over south FL this
evening and lift northward across central FL just as mid/upper level
forcing and convective complex over the Gulf reaches ECFL.
Convection is currently increasing ahead of this complex across WCFL
in response to approaching shortwave energy. The stage is set for
NMRS showers and SCT strong/severe lightning storms this evening and
overnight. Main threats will be frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
strikes, torrential downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding,
strong-to-damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, perhaps some coin-
sized hail, and cannot rule out a tornado or two. Movement toward
the northeast or east at around 30 mph. The threat will be greatest
north of a Titusville to Kissimmee line.

It remains possible a Severe Weather Watch will be issued this
evening across much of ECFL. Convection should push offshore into
the Atlc well before sunrise. Overnight lows mild and in the 60s
areawide.

Wed...Previous...Will start the day in the warm sector with a cool
front advancing across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will
remain over the area with PWATs around 1.5" combined with mid level
temps cooling to -13C producing steep mid level lapse rates.
Coordinated with SPC to expand the MRGL risk southward due to
possibility of storm enhancement from the sea breeze boundary. A SE
sea breeze along the coast will increase the low level shear as
incoming storms interact with the boundary late in the day. In
addition to strong wind gusts, there will be a threat for hail due
to the colder temps aloft. Max temps will reach near 80 north and
mid 80s south. The cool front is forecast to push storms offshore
the coast during the early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD to SCT shower activity continues to push onshore
this evening. Conditions will continue to deteriorate as an
organized batch of strong/svr shra/tsra move onto the WCFL coast and
rapidly inland during the late evening/overnight hours, traversing
the peninsula and pushing off of the ECFL coast and across the local
coastal waters. Maintain convective wind gusts to MCO/SFB/DAB in the
TEMPO group with potential for wind gusts to exceed 35 knots.
Another round of TSRA expected to develop Wed aftn over the interior
and push east across the terminals during the latter aftn/early eve.
Strong wind gusts will again be possible and possible large hail Wed
aftn with even cooler temps aloft.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight-Wed...Marginal SCEC/SCA (poor) conditions
continue across the local coastal waters with winds ESE 15-20 kts
over the open Atlc and seas building to 6ft at buoy 41009. Continue
Exercise Caution (EC) offshore for now, but will need to monitor we
need to elevate to a short-fuse SCA for offshore waters and EC near
shore. Seas forecast 4-5 ft near shore. Wind direction likely to be
corrupted tonight from expected offshore moving strong/severe
convection, but otherwise veering to SE, esp north of Cape and
perhaps more S/SSW further southward. This, in part, in response to
a warm front lifting northward tonight across the area. Showers and
lightning storms later tonight pushing quickly off of the coast will
contain cloud-to-water lightning, torrential downpours, gusty winds
in excess of 34 kts, small hail, and perhaps a waterspout potential,
as well, esp near Cape northward.

Previous...There will be a lull Wed morning and early aftn then
additional storms should develop over the peninsula ahead of an
advancing cold front and push offshore during the mid to late aftn
and early eve. There will again be a threat for strong wind gusts
with these storms as well as large hail. Winds south 10-15 knots and
seas 3-5 FT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Sedlock/Leahy/Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
640 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-161000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
640 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast early this
evening as moisture increases ahead of a warm front approaching
front the south. The chance for storms will increase further into
mid to late evening and overnight as the front lifts northward
across east central Florida, and a pre-frontal band of storms moves
quickly northeast to east at 30 to 35 mph across the Florida
peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico.

A few storms should become strong to marginally severe later this
evening into the overnight, primarily between 9 PM and 4 AM. The
primary threats will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail,
frequent lightning, and torrential rain. Conditions will be
favorable for a tornado or two as well. Make sure you have multiple
ways of receiving weather alerts tonight.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at the central
Florida Atlantic beaches. Never enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Thunderstorm wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots will be possible this
evening and overnight as storms cross area lakes, the Intracoastal
Waterway, and near shore Atlantic.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Boaters should Exercise Caution over all the Atlantic offshore
waters from 20 to 60 nautical miles for choppy seas up to 6 feet and
east-southeast winds 15 to 20 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers and embedded lightning storms are
expected to develop Wednesday afternoon. Some of these storms will
be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large
hail in addition to heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes. Some stronger storms are possible again on Friday
and possibly Saturday as well.

A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed
tonight.

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

FLZ045-053-160200-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
935 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Orange and
northwestern Osceola Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 934 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Haines City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Bay Lake, Celebration, West Lake Toho and Intercession
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8148 2823 8130 2814 8150 2814 8152
      2820 8152 2826 8156 2826 8166 2827 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 240DEG 15KT 2818 8158

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Leahy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
956 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

FLZ045-053-160230-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
956 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Orange
and northwestern Osceola Counties through 1030 PM EDT...

At 956 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Intercession City, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, West Lake Toho, Intercession City and Buena
Ventura Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2827 8158 2844 8138 2823 8125 2815 8152
      2820 8152 2822 8154 2826 8156 2826 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 245DEG 8KT 2825 8149

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Leahy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1014 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     TSTM WND GST     KISSIMMEE AIRPORT       28.29N  81.44W
03/15/2022  M51 MPH          OSCEOLA            FL   AWOS

            KISSIMMEE AIRPORT AWOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
            44KT/51MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200046

CRISTALDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

FLZ041-044-160300-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
1030 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Lake
and central Volusia Counties through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1030 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
DeBary, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, DeLand, Orange City, Lake Helen and DeBary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8120 2886 8135 2887 8135 2887 8136
      2888 8136 2887 8138 2886 8138 2884 8140
      2884 8141 2888 8145 2905 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 224DEG 12KT 2888 8137

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Leahy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1105 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE AUSTIN TINDALL PA 28.37N  81.27W
03/15/2022  M51 MPH          ORANGE             FL   MESONET

            MESONET SITE FW942 REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 44KT/51 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200047

CRISTALDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1116 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

FLZ044-144-160415-
Northern Lake County FL-Southern Lake County FL-
1116 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Lake
County through 1215 AM EDT...

At 1115 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Wildwood to 8 miles
northeast of Bushnell to near Zephyrhills North. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Eustis, Tavares, Lady Lake and Groveland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8171 2870 8169 2836 8179
      2836 8186 2835 8186 2835 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 240DEG 11KT 2894 8209 2872 8199 2825 8210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leahy