Hurricane Warning 1009, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New SYNOPSIS, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today.  A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction
in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. As of 2 PM,
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later
today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west
coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest track and intensity projections for Major Hurricane Ian up
to and past landfall have required adjustments of watches and
warnings. Due to a higher probability of tropical storm and
perhaps hurricane conditions, a Hurricane Warning was posted for
Lake county, along with Tropical Storm Warnings earlier today for
the remainder of East central Florida. expect deteriorating
conditions overnight into Wednesday with progressively heavier
rain episodes, along with a developing chance of gusty squalls and
damaging winds will develop late tonight as the outer bands spread
northward across the region.

modified prev disc...

Wednesday-Thursday...There remains a little uncertainty in the
forecast track, as influence from the subtropical ridge to the
east, the frontal boundary over NOFL, and other nearby features,
will ultimately determine where the center of Ian makes landfall
along the southwest Florida coast, and the trajectory the storm
takes across the peninsula. The latest guidance from NHC has
nudged the track a little eastward over the past 24 hours,
increasing the forecast impacts for east central Florida from
damaging winds and gusts, flooding rainfall, possible tornadoes,
and extremely dangerous seas, surf, and rip currents.

Per the latest NHC forecast, the center of Major Hurricane Ian will
be in the SE GOMEX west of the Everglades by early Wednesday.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the peninsula as the
storm continues northeastward, reaching the southwest Florida
coast as a major hurricane early Thursday. Widespread tropical
rainfall is expected to continue, with wind gusts to hurricane
force (65kt/74mph) possible in squalls. Outside of squalls, winds
increasing to tropical storm force (35- 55kt/40-60+ mph) across
east central Florida, with gusts to hurricane force possible over
to near the I-4 corridor. Conditions will remain favorable for
tornadoes across east central Florida through at least Thursday
night.

Residents and visitors should keep up to date on the latest
forecasts for Ian from the National Hurricane Center, and
continued updates on local impacts from your National Weather
Service Office in Melbourne.

Friday-Tuesday...Breezy to locally windy conditions with lingering
showers/squalls expected Friday, especially the northern half of the
forecast area, as a rapidly weakening Ian lifts northward into NOFL
and the SE CONUS. Guidance shows a significant dry air punch
crossing Florida as it wraps into the system late Friday into
Saturday, resulting in much lower PoPs for the weekend.

Afternoon highs increase from the L-M80s in Ian's rains and cloud
cover, to the M-U80s Friday onward, thanks to the considerably drier
and cooler air getting wrapped across Florida. Overnight lows become
fairly comfortable, in the U60s-L70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Current-Tonight...Initial rain shield with occasional rainbands
will spread north into the area. Squally conditions will become
more prevalent tonight and especially into early Wednesday. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect at this time for all the
waters.

Wednesday-Friday...The forecast track of Major Hurricane Ian has
been nudged east, bringing the potential for tropical storm force
winds across all local Atlantic waters and increasing confidence
in highly dangerous surf and seas. Per latest NHC guidance, the
center of Major Hurricane Ian will make landfall on the southwest
Florida coast early Thursday. Ian will quickly weaken as it
tracks north-northeast then northward up the peninsula. Winds E-SE
around 20 kts Wed morning, veering S-SSE and increasing to
tropical storm force as the center of Ian lifts northward early
Thu-Fri, then decrease to 15-20 kts Friday. Squalls capable of
gusts to hurricane force will be possible, as well as waterspouts.

Seas 4- 6 ft early Wed increase to 6 ft Wed afternoon, 6-8 ft and
Wed night. Thurs seas expected to increase significantly in the
Volusia and Brevard waters, increasing to higher than 15 ft, then
subsiding through the day Fri as Ian departs the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Conditions deteriorating this afternoon as some outer bands from
Hurricane Ian begin to impact the area. MVFR to IFR conditions
prevail over the period, with reduced VIS and CIGs due to heavy
rain. Winds out of the E-NE at 10-15kt with the potential for some
gusty winds. TEMPOs in place due to embedded thunderstorms and
further reductions in CIGs and VIS through tonight. Wednesday,
MVFR/IFR conditions possible once again as Hurricane Ian
approaches the FL peninsula. SHRA Wednesday morning becoming TSRA
in the afternoon. Winds E-NE at 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Significant rainfall is expected to spread across the area over the
next 24 to 48 hours as Hurricane Ian moves closer to the Florida
peninsula. Latest guidance suggests a range of 10-15" with isolated
amounts greater than 18" occurring over northern portions of east
central FL (areas north of Kissimmee/Melbourne), with southern
locations receiving 6-8" with isolated totals in excess of 12". A
Flood Watch remains in effect for all of east central Florida.

This amount of rainfall will cause major flooding for portions of
the area, especially for locations that have already received high
rainfall amounts over the past 7 days. Creeks and rivers that are
already approaching bankfull will overflow, leading to substantial
flooding. Urban locations and low lying areas are especially
susceptible, with inundation of major roadways and flooding of
structures possible.

Levels along the Saint Johns River will continue to rise, with Astor
forecast to rise above Moderate Flood Stage and above Lake Harney
reaching Minor Flood Stage. It is important to note that higher
rainfall totals could cause more substantial rises on the river,
with flooding similar to Irma in 2017 a possibility. More "flashy"
basins, including the Little Wekiva River and Shingle Creek are also
greatly impacted by these high rainfall totals, and could quickly
rise well into Moderate Flood Stage in a short window of time.

Interests along the river should prepare for major flooding and
continue to monitor the latest forecasts for Hurricane Ian.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  82  74  83 /  90 100 100 100
MCO  75  82  76  82 /  90 100 100  90
MLB  75  85  77  86 / 100 100 100  90
VRB  75  87  77  87 / 100 100  90  80
LEE  73  77  72  78 /  80  90  90  90
SFB  73  80  74  79 /  90 100 100  90
ORL  75  80  76  82 /  90 100 100  90
FPR  75  86  75  87 / 100 100  90  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Flood Watch through late Thursday night for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Hurricane Watch for FLZ044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

Digital Forecasts...Pendergrast/Schaper
Hydrology...Smith
Aviation...Tollefsen
IDSS...Weitlich/Ulrich/Sharp/Volkmer

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