Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Melbourne, FL

466 
WGUS52 KMLB 291039
FFWMLB
FLC117-291245-
/O.EXT.KMLB.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220929T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
639 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN SEMINOLE 
COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Seminole County in east central Florida...

* Until 845 AM EDT.

* At 639 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  heavy rain falling in Little Wekiva River. Between 6 and 10 inches 
  of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches 
  are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already 
  occurring. River level currently reported of 30.6 ft which is 
  nearly a foot above record.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Little Wekiva River in 
  Seminole County. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK 
  HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
           flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Altamonte Springs, Maitland, Lake Mary, Longwood, Wekiva Springs, 
  Forest City, Fern Park and Heathrow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 2864 8141 2865 8143 2865 8144 2866 8144
      2867 8145 2869 8145 2870 8144 2872 8142
      2874 8142 2876 8141 2878 8140 2878 8138
      2877 8137 2875 8137 2871 8136 2868 8135
      2867 8136 2865 8136 2864 8137

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

JS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
148 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Considerable squalls moving from south to north will produce
tropical storm gusts along with a possible waterspout. Seas will
build well above hazardous level over the open Atlantic.

Thursday-Sunday...Dangerous seas up to 20 ft and tropical storm
force conditions expected Thursday as Hurricane Ian pushes
offshore the east central Florida coast, and exit the local
Atlantic waters to the north. Winds over 40 kts, backing from S
over the Treasure Coast waters to E over the Volusia waters around
Ian. Seas begin to subside Friday, but remain hazardous at 6-9 ft
across the Treasure Coast waters and 7-13 ft across the Volusia
waters. Advisories and Cautionary statements are likely to
continue through the end of the week.

Boating conditions expected to become more favorable during the
weekend as cool dry air gets wrapped across Florida and the local
Atlantic waters in the wake of Ian. Winds SW-S around 15 kts,
decreasing to 10 kts from the W Sunday. Seas 3-5 ft, occasionally 6
ft, subsiding to 2-4 ft this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Strong tropical storm conditions are expected through the
overnight hours with sustained winds of 30-35 knots with gusts of
50-55 knots. While ceilings and visibilities will gradually
improve across the region after 18Z tomorrow, winds of 20-30 knots
with gusts to 40-45 knots will continue into the early evening
hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Historic rainfall is expected to spread across the area over the
next 48 hours as Hurricane Ian pushes inland over southwest Florida.
Updated guidance now suggests a range of 12 to 20 inches with
locally higher amounts up to 30 inches as the center of Ian tracks
northeast across Central Florida. These highest totals are generally
concentrated along and north of I-4, spreading along an axis from
Lakeland to Daytona Beach. Elsewhere across east central FL,
rainfall totals will range from 4 to 12 inches with isolated higher
amounts depending on where heavy rainbands set up. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for all of east central Florida.

This amount of rainfall will cause major and catastrophic
flooding for portions of the area. Creeks and rivers that are
already approaching bankfull will overflow, leading to the
possibility of unprecedented flooding given these forecast rain
amounts for the metro Orlando corridor and Saint Johns River
basin. Numerous water rescues and substantial inundation of
structures is likely beginning tonight and throughout the day
Thursday, especially across traditionally flood prone urban and
suburban areas around Orlando.

Levels along the Saint Johns River will continue to rise, with
greater significant rises expected later in the week as rainfall
from Hurricane Ian drains into the basin. The forecast points at
Astor, Lake Harney above Geneva and Deland are all expected to
rise to Major Flood Stage and increasing likelihood and confidence
in reaching Record Flood Stage, with comparable crests near or
above Irma levels in 2017. Levels on the Little Wekiva River could
rise well above Major Flood, also nearing Record Flood Stage
tonight into tomorrow, with Shingle Creek near Campbell also
reaching Hurricane Irma levels in Moderate to Major flood stage.
All river forecasts are highly dependent on rainfall amounts that
reach the basin, so less or more rainfall will cause variability
in observed stages.

Interests along the Saint Johns north of Cocoa, Shingle Creek and
Little Wekiva River should prepare for major flood impacts,
substantial flooding of structures along the river.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  70  80  65 / 100  90  60  20
MCO  82  70  81  66 /  90  70  40  20
MLB  85  70  84  67 /  90  70  40  20
VRB  86  70  86  66 /  80  50  40  20
LEE  77  67  77  65 /  90  70  40  20
SFB  80  69  79  65 / 100  80  50  20
ORL  80  70  81  67 /  90  70  40  20
FPR  85  70  86  66 /  80  50  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-347-447-
     547-647-747.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-
     144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Hurricane Warning for AMZ550-552-570-572.

&&

HYDROLOGY...Smith
AVIATION...NWS Corpus Christi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
640 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-282200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
640 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Please see the Hurricane Ian Local Statement for expected threats
and impacts to east central Florida. The Hurricane Threats and
Impacts Graphics can be found at weather.gov/mlb/hti

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Hurricane Ian is forecast to move north-northeast across the
Florida peninsula and across east central Florida through
Thursday afternoon, making it out into the Atlantic by late
Thursday afternoon and into early evening. Expect increasing
coverage of showers and and gusty squalls with heavy rain, along
with a risk of tornadoes through mid to late week.

Residents and visitors should closely monitor the latest forecasts
for Ian, and have their preparations complete and their hurricane
kits ready.

Seas and surf will continue to be dangerous at the central
Florida beaches and adjacent Atlantic waters through at least
Thursday night. Rough surf and a Moderate risk of life-
threatening rip currents is expected to continue through
Thursday.

Conditions are expected to improve by the weekend, with drier
conditions developing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Watson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1235 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 ENE DAYTONA BEACH     29.22N  81.00W
09/28/2022                   VOLUSIA            FL   MESONET

            THE WEATHERSTEM STATION AT VOLUSIA BEACH SAFETY
            HEADQUARTERS IN DAYTONA BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST OF
            70KTS/81MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200548

HALEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1254 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TROPICAL STORM   MELBOURNE AIRPORT       28.10N  80.64W
09/29/2022                   BREVARD            FL   ASOS

            THE KMLB ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 57KT/66MPH FROM
            THE SE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200549

CRISTALDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
137 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 NE NEW SMYRNA BEACH   29.05N  80.90W
09/29/2022                   VOLUSIA            FL   MESONET

            WXFLOW SITE XNSB RECORDED AS SUSTAINED WIND OF
            42KT/48MPH GUSTING TO 57KT/66MPH OUT OF THE NE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200550

CRISTALDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
231 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 SSW COCOA BEACH       28.31N  80.63W
09/29/2022                   BREVARD            FL   MESONET

            WXFLOW SITE XCOA MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 58KT/67MPH
            FROM THE ESE

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200551

CRISTALDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BUENA VENTURA LAKES     28.34N  81.35W
09/29/2022                   OSCEOLA            FL   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SEVERAL ROADS IN THE BUENAVETURA LAKES AREA WERE
            FLOODED, WITH WATER ENTERING AT LEAST ONE HOME , LOCATED
            ON COMPETITION DRIVE. PUBLIC REPORT FROM TWITTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200552

CRISTALDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE KISSIMMEE          28.31N  81.40W
09/29/2022                   OSCEOLA            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA VIDEO VIA TWITTER OF TWO TO THREE FEET
            OF WATER IN AN OUTLET MALL PARKING LOT. WATER APPEARS TO
            BE ENTERING BUSINESSES. ALSO REPORTS THAT ORANGE BLOSSOM
            TRAIL IN THAT AREA IS IMPASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200553

JS