Storm Warning 4, NWS Milwaukee, WI

249 
WHUS73 KMKX 150342
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
942 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

LMZ567-669-671-673-868-870-872-874-151000-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMKX.SR.W.0004.221215T0400Z-221215T1000Z/
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
942 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and waves 
  8 to 13 ft expected.

* WHERE...Middle one-third of the open waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 PM CST this evening. For 
  the Storm Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CST 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-151145-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMKX.SR.W.0004.221215T0600Z-221215T1500Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
942 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast to east winds 20 to 30 
  kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 5 to 9 ft. For the Storm 
  Warning, east winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and 
  waves 7 to 13 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until midnight CST tonight. For 
  the Storm Warning, from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-150900-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
942 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast to east winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt and waves 8 to 14 ft.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ080-675-777-779-876-878-151000-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T1000Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
942 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast to east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 
  kt and waves 6 to 12 ft.

* WHERE...Southern one-third of the open waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

237 
WHUS73 KMKX 150848
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
248 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

LMZ567-669-671-673-868-870-872-874-151200-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221215T1000Z/
/O.EXB.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T1200Z/
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
248 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  waves 7 to 12 ft.

* WHERE...Central portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ644>646-151700-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0112.221215T0900Z-221215T1800Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
248 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 6 to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Port Washington to Winthrop 
  Harbor IL.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643-151700-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0112.221215T0900Z-221216T1500Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
248 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 7 to 12 ft expected.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Port Washington.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ080-675-777-779-876-878-151200-
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T1200Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
248 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 5 to 8 ft.

* WHERE...Southern portions of Lake Michigan

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-151500-
/O.CON.KMKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
248 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and 
  waves 7 to 12 ft.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

169 
WHUS73 KMKX 151213
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
613 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

LMZ080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-151315-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-221215T1200Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
613 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Winds between 20 and 25 knots will continue.

$$

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-151500-
/O.CON.KMKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
613 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and 
  waves 6 to 11 ft.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan, 
  Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to 
  Mid Lake, and Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 
  5NM offshore to Mid Lake.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ644>646-151800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0112.000000T0000Z-221215T1800Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
613 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 4 to 7 ft.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Port Washington to Winthrop 
  Harbor IL.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643-152015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0112.000000T0000Z-221216T1500Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
613 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 6 to 9 ft.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Port Washington.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

479 
WHUS73 KMKX 151455
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
855 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-151800-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221215T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.GL.W.0046.221215T1500Z-221215T1800Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
855 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gale gusts up to 40 kt 
  and waves 6 to 9 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan, 
  Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to 
  Mid Lake, and Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 
  5NM offshore to Mid Lake.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ644>646-151800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0112.000000T0000Z-221215T1800Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
855 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 2 to 4 ft.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Port Washington to Winthrop 
  Harbor IL.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643-152300-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0112.000000T0000Z-221216T1500Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
855 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Port Washington.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1000 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1000 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022)

Periods of drizzle to moderate rainfall will continue through the
day today, with slug of heavier precipitation still expected to
move in from the south this evening. Models continue to trend
faster with the colder air arriving from the north, resulting a
longer period of snow potential this evening into tonight. Latest
guidance is pushing the accumulations even farther south than
previous runs. Will take a good look at all the 12Z data and make
adjustments to amounts and any headline changes as needed.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 247 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022)

Today through Thursday:

Strong southeast flow is in place across the region this morning.
A band of moderate to heavy rain is lifting northeastward within a
zone of strong warm advection, ahead of a large upper level low
currently located over Nebraska. This band of rain will continue
to lift northeastward this morning. Temperatures will hold steady
or rise a little through daybreak, keeping everything in liquid
form. Winds will be quite gusty though mid day, with 30-40 MPH
gusts expected.

We'll likely see a break from the steadier rain this afternoon as
a quasi-dry slot builds into the area, though do expect to see at
least occasional shower activity continue. Temperatures by this
afternoon will range from the upper 30s across the north to the
low to mid 40s over the far south, where the best warm advection
will be in place.

Things start to get rather complex this evening, as a strong
shortwave currently located over New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle rapidly lifts northeastward and begins to phase with the
main upper level low. Low pressure forming over the Ohio Valley
will lift into the Great Lakes in association with this wave,
helping to bring colder air into the region a little faster, and
tightening the overall temperature gradient, resulting in a strong
frontogenetical response. The fgen along with large scale lift
from the wave will result in the development of a secondary band
of precipitation across the area this evening. Temperatures will
be cooling aloft, and this is expected to result in precipitation
changing over from rain to snow late this evening into the
overnight hours. This transition is expected to take place from
north to south starting between 9 PM and midnight. Confidence is
pretty high in the changeover taking place north of I-94, but
there's considerable uncertainty with how far south the snow will
make it.

Precipitation intensity should be pretty high this evening and
night given the strong fgen response and weak stability; in fact,
it wouldn't be too surprising if we see a little lightning late
this evening. Heavier precip rates will help overcome marginal
surface temperatures, with a general 1-4 inches of snow
accumulating north of I-94 by daybreak. Have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for our northern tier of counties--Marquette to
Sheboygan--for the late evening and overnight hours. Eventual snow
amounts will be highly dependent on the pace and southward extent
of the changeover from rain to snow, and it is possible that
another row of counties may eventually need to be added to the
Advisory if things look a little quicker and/or more southerly.

Guidance is in pretty good agreement in ending the heaviest
precipitation by 7 or 8 AM tomorrow morning. We may see a break
during the morning hours before additional snow shower activity
starts to build into the area during the afternoon, along with
colder air.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 247 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022)

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Strong cold advection and deep cyclonic flow will favor scattered
to numerous snow showers into at least Saturday morning. QPF will
be light, but over the course of a couple of days these snow
showers will likely add up to an additional inch or two of snow
area-wide. Highs Friday will be around freezing, with lows
Thursday night and Friday night in the 20s.

A stronger push of cold air arrives over the weekend, with highs
on Saturday and Sunday expected to be in the 20s, and only in the
teens by Monday and Tuesday of next week. Overnight lows in the
teens and single digits are a good bet. Little in the way of
appreciable precipitation is expected during this time, and with
drier air building in, we may even, *perhaps* see a few peeks of
sun.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1000 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022)

Periods of drizzle to moderate rainfall will continue through the
day today, with slug of heavier precipitation still expected to
move in from the south this evening. Low ceilings and reduced
visibilities will hang on through tonight. The low level wind
shear will continue through the morning hours.

Models continue to trend faster with the colder air arriving from
the north, resulting a longer period of snow potential this
evening into tonight. Latest guidance is pushing the
accumulations even farther south than previous runs. Will take a
good look at all the 12Z data and make adjustments to amounts and
any headline changes as needed. Snowfall rates will be moderate to
heavy later evening into tonight, with the snow winding down by
the early morning hours Thursday. It will be a wet snow through
the event, with surface temperatures remaining near the freezing
mark.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 247 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022)

Low pressure located over eastern Nebraska will slowly move
eastward today, eventually merging tonight with another area of
low pressure as it lifts from the Ohio Valley into the Great
Lakes. Southeast gales are ongoing this morning over the southern
half of the lake and nearshore, and will expand northward through
the day today. Winds may weaken slightly late this afternoon and
early this evening, before picking up again late this evening and
overnight tonight into Friday morning. During this time, winds
will be strongest across the northern third to half of the lake,
with gales to 45 knots likely, and the possibility for a few storm
force gusts to 50 knots. Winds will slowly diminish after sunrise
on Friday, with gales expected to end by mid day as winds start
to become more southwesterly.

A prolonged period of southwest to west flow is then expected
through the weekend and into early next week, with numerous lake
effect snow showers likely as colder air builds into the region.
Some light freezing spray is also possible by next week.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052...9 PM
     Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 2 AM
     Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 until
     noon Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 PM Wednesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
253 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-150900-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
253 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southeast winds will gust as high as 40 MPH at times this morning.

Rain is expected to change to snow over parts of the area late
this evening, continuing into Thursday morning. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for portions of central Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Winter Weather Advisory continues into Thursday morning for
portions of central Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-150900-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
253 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southeast gales will continue through this evening. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed once the Gale Warning expires.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Small Craft conditions may continue into Thursday afternoon.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-150900-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
253 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southeast gales will continue through tonight. A few storm force
gusts are possible late tonight over the far northern portion of
the lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Gales will continue through mid day Thursday across the northern
portion of the lake.

www.weather.gov/mkx