Small Craft Advisory 79, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
918 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022

.UPDATE...
(Issued 918 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)

The forecast looks largely on track for today, with rain expected
to persist across most of the forecast area. Might have to nudge
high temps down a bit for a few locations, particularly those
areas that will stay under the core of the rain through the day.
Will continue to monitor rainfall rates and the potential for some
flooding, as pockets of heavier rainfall are expected at times
today.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 443 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)

Today through Monday Night:

The band of ongoing showers continue to spread eastward across
southern WI early this morning. Some areas have already seen a
quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall associated with the
850mb frontogenesis and deep moisture convection band. The
leading edge of this activity is bringing a bulk of the moderate
to heavy rainfall, but it is then proceeded by lighter, showery
rainfall.

As the surface low continues to lift and meander around the WI/IL
border and southern Lake Michigan, the upper-level trough will dig
across the Upper Midwest and become more of a cut off and can expect
the rainfall activity to pick up and increase through the day.
Models are coming into better agreement more than they were
yesterday with the track of this slow moving system and where the
deformation generated precip is likely to occur, which aligns more
with the ECMWF and EPS members and painting the heavy rainfall
bullseye across our CWA. The low will then continue to churn over
the region through tonight and linger into Monday bringing a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall. This will likely
result in ponding for low-lying areas and localized flooding.
Given this concern along with several inches of expected rainfall,
have went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for most of the CWA
excluding our central WI counties.

As the models and ensembles come into better agreement with the
track of the system, there is a general consensus between the EPS,
GEFS, and NBM members of rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
across our central WI counties, while areas of 3 to 5 inches are
expected along the I-94 corridor from Madison to Milwaukee and I-90
corridor south of Madison. However there are some high res models,
such as the HREF, that are progging even higher rainfall totals in
excess of 5 inches. I tend to be a bit weary of this jump in amounts
from the high-res models from their previous runs, but given the
ample moisture, forcing/lift, and slow moving nature of this system
along with the recent efficient rainfall that has already fallen
this morning, it is not impossible to see these higher rainfall
amounts exceeding 5 inches.

Overall, most of southern WI can expect some much needed rainfall,
but still need to keep an eye on where the banding sets up as a
slight shift in the track can drastically change where the heaviest
rainfall may fall. Also there is hints of a dry slot working its way
in across southeast WI, which could end up limiting amounts
depending on how quickly and how far it extends. Otherwise, this
rainy pattern will continue through Monday evening before the
upper-level low and trough lift northeast bringing an end to this
activity as we head into Tuesday.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 443 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)

Tuesday through Saturday:

500 MB height rises and upper ridging will return into the middle
of the week with a shortwave trough flattening the ridge toward
the end of the week. At the sfc, a ridge of high pressure will
move across the region on Tue followed by sly winds and warm
advection for the remainder of the week. High temps will gradually
warm from the lower to middle 70s for Tue-Wed to near 80F by Fri-
Sat. Only slight chances for rain at times.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 918 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)

Low pressure will move over southern Lake Michigan today and then
linger in the area through Monday. Persistent rainfall and low
clouds are likely while the low hangs around, particularly from
Madison eastward towards the low. Visibilities will bounce around
today depending on rainfall rates, mainly ranging from 3 to 6
miles.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 443 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)

Increasing northerly winds and building waves are expected to
continue to develop behind the frontal passage today. Expect small
craft conditions to continue as well through tonight and even
lingering across the northern two nearshore zones through most of
Monday. Thus, have extended the small craft advisory. These
conditions will persist into Monday as a surface low
develops/deepens and tracks just south of Lake Michigan today and
then meanders over the southern half of the lake through Monday.
Expect the low to slowly lift northeastward Tuesday into
Wednesday, but northerly winds will continue into midweek.

Wagner

&&

.BEACHES...
(Issued 918 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)

Increasing northeasterly and building waves up to 6 to 8 feet
are expected today as a low deepens and hangs out over southern
Lake Michigan through Monday. Thus, high swim risk conditions for
lakeshore beaches will continue today into Monday. Life
threatening waves and currents are expected. Stay out of the
water and avoid dangerous areas like piers, inlets, and
breakwalls.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 7 PM Monday.

     Flood Watch...WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-
     WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 1 PM Monday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 AM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 PM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Monday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
347 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-120900-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
347 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Several inches of heavy rainfall are expected with ponding in
low-lying areas and localized flooding today and tonight, thus a
Flood Watch was issued. Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms
with this activity as well.

High swim risk for all lakeshore beaches today and tonight with
northeasterly winds and buildings waves. Life threatening waves
and currents are expected. Stay out of the water and avoid
dangerous areas like piers, inlets, and breakwalls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Heavy rainfall with storm total amounts between 2 to 5 inches is
expected through Monday with locally higher amounts possible.
Expect ponding in low-lying areas, localized flooding, and river
flooding for any areas seeing persistent heavy rainfall. The
Flood Watch remains in effect until Monday afternoon.

High swim risk continues for Ozaukee and Sheboygan county beaches
on Monday. Stay out of the water and avoid dangerous areas like
piers, inlets, and breakwalls.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time, but any heavy
rainfall reports would be appreciated over the weekend.

LMZ643>646-120900-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
347 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small craft conditions expected today and tonight for all
nearshore zones.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Small craft conditions continue until Monday evening for nearshore
waters from Sheboygan to North Point Lighthouse.

Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled on Monday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-120900-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
347 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into Monday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E EDGERTON            42.84N 89.01W
09/11/2022  M1.37 INCH       ROCK               WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-RK-23 3 E EDGERTON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N JANESVILLE          42.70N 89.02W
09/11/2022  M1.14 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ARGW3 ARGYLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FONTANA-ON-GENEVA       42.54N 88.56W
09/11/2022  M1.27 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WW-38 FONTANA 0.3 SSE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
948 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW BROOKFIELD        43.07N 88.17W
09/11/2022  M1.66 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WK-85 BROOKFIELD 2.5
            WNW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
949 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W GERMANTOWN          43.24N 88.16W
09/11/2022  M1.18 INCH       WASHINGTON         WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WS-37 HUBERTUS 3.1 E.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
147 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW RACINE            42.75N 87.82W
09/11/2022  M3.20 INCH       RACINE             WI   COCORAHS

&&