Small Craft Advisory 78, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
855 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022

.UPDATE...
(Issued 855 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022)

The forecast is on track for tonight. High clouds are slowly
appraching from the west with the front.

It looks like we will need a Beach Hazards Statement for a High
Swim Risk Saturday night through at least Sunday, but there are
some timing and intensity details that still need to get worked
out due to the uncertainty of the surface low position. Therefore,
we will hold off issuing one this evening.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022)

Tonight through Saturday night:

Warm thermal ridging will reside across the area into midday
Saturday. Afterwards we will start to see shower chances on the
increase into especially SC WI for the afternoon hours. This is due
to the slow approach of the low level front with its associated
baroclinicity. Think much of SE WI will eek out another warm and dry
day though temps likely down a bit with some increase in clouds. The
baroclinic zone is proggd to slow down as it crosses srn WI. Rain
chances look highest and heaviest across parts of SC WI due to
placement of front and where low pressure starts to organize to our
south and starts to nudge slowly northeastward along the front.
Seeing precipitable water values rise over 1.5 inches within the max
moist axis which is likely to set up over parts of SC WI.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022)

Sunday through Monday night:

Mid level low will pivot through Iowa Sunday plodding through
northern Illinois Sunday night and start heading to our east Monday
afternoon into Monday night. The key to the forecast will be how the
cyclogenesis continues to evolve with the precise layout of the def
zone precip axis being in question. Could still set up across south
central WI where the first band focused or perhaps further east,
which would be more ideal as it would spread out the rain focus a
little more across the cwa. At the moment the consensus is on a bit
of a slower look which could focus a more westward axis of heavier
precip.

Tuesday through Friday:

The system will finally exit to the east setting up a quiet period.
High pressure will ridge in for mid week and then start to head east
for the remainder of the week setting up a return flow. At this
point it looks like precip wi the next system will largely hold off
to our west and northwest through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 855 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022)

VFR for tonight and Saturday morning. The main cloud band
associated with the frontal boundary/mid level energy is well to
our west and northwest. As the front moves into the area Saturday
afternoon we will see the shower potential increase across SC WI.
Should also see some MVFR cigs nudge into the area as well.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022)

A cold front will slowly move north to south across the lake for
Saturday into Saturday evening. Breezy north winds are expected
after the frontal passage and will continue through at least Sunday
and possibly longer. High waves will build across much of the lake.
A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed from Sheboygan to
Winthrop Harbor for Saturday night into Monday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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