Alert archive / Wisconsin / River Flood Warnings in 2022
River Flood Warning 4, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this river flood warning at Sep 12, 2022, 12:36 AM CDT for Milwaukee County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 21 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 12, 2022, 12:36 AM CDT (05:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 3, 2022, 12:36 AM CDT
- In force
- 21 days
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Milwaukee County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Oak Creek at South Milwaukee (OAKW3).
- Action stage
- 5.5 ft
- Minor stage
- 8 ft
- Moderate stage
- 10 ft
- Major stage
- 11 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04087204, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
529
WGUS43 KMKX 120536
FLWMKX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan WI has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Wisconsin...
Oak Creek At South Milwaukee affecting Milwaukee County.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
&&
WIC079-121745-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0004.220912T0536Z-000000T0000Z/
/OAKW3.1.ER.220912T0404Z.220912T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Oak Creek At South Milwaukee.
* WHEN...From early this morning until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 8.4 feet, The main effects of flooding are to lowland
and wooded land.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 8.5 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 12:00 AM CDT Monday was 8.5 feet.
- Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
8.3 feet on 04/09/2015.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 5 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
South Milwaukee 8.0 5.5 8.47 12 am 9/12 not a forecast point
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
South Milwaukee 8.47 12 am 9/12 6.18 Not Available
&&
LAT...LON 4288 8787 4289 8792 4291 8791 4293 8786
4290 8785 4290 8787
$$
WAGNER4 follow-up statements
490
WGUS83 KMKX 121051
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
551 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Fox River Lower At Waukesha affecting Waukesha County.
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Oak Creek At South Milwaukee affecting Milwaukee County.Additional
information is available at www.weather.gov.
&&
WIC133-122300-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220914T0600Z/
/WKEW3.1.ER.220912T0313Z.220912T0830Z.220914T0000Z.NO/
551 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Fox River Lower At Waukesha.
* WHEN...Until early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 7.1 feet, Water is over the banks in Frame Park and
floodwaters are at least 2 feet deep on land near the shoreline.
About one half mile south of downtown Waukesha, water is 2 to 3
feet deep and covering much of the back yards of 6 or 7 homes in
the Bethesda Court area of Waukesha.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 5:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 7.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 5:00 AM CDT Monday was 7.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
tomorrow evening and continue falling to 4.0 feet early
Monday morning.
- Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
7.0 feet on 07/12/2017.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 am...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Waukesha 6.0 5.0 7.06 5 am 9/12 6.6 5.7 5.2 4.8
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Waukesha 7.26 3 am 9/12 2.23 7.00 7 am 9/12
&&
LAT...LON 4304 8824 4304 8817 4300 8821 4297 8823
4300 8832 4302 8826
$$
WIC079-122300-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OAKW3.1.ER.220912T0404Z.220912T0730Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
551 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Oak Creek At South Milwaukee.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 9.1 feet, This level is the 1 percent chance flood
meaning that there is a 1 percent chance of the river reaching
this level in any given year. Flooding effects are confined mainly
to lowland and wooded land.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 5:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 9.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the last 24
hours ending at 5:00 AM CDT Monday was just below 10.0 feet.
- Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
9.4 feet on 07/02/2000.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 5 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
South Milwaukee 8.0 5.5 9.35 5 am 9/12 not a forecast point
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
South Milwaukee 9.97 2 am 9/12 7.06 Not Available
&&
LAT...LON 4288 8787 4289 8792 4291 8791 4293 8786
4290 8785 4290 8787
$$
WAGNER783
WGUS83 KMKX 121537
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1037 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Fox River Lower At Waukesha affecting Waukesha County.
Oak Creek At South Milwaukee affecting Milwaukee County.
Root River At Franklin affecting Milwaukee County.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued by this evening at 1045 PM CDT.
&&
WIC079-130345-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220914T1200Z/
/FRKW3.1.ER.220912T0930Z.220913T0000Z.220914T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Root River At Franklin.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, A low spot on Oakwood Road in southern
Milwaukee County is flooded. Other flooding effects are confined
mainly to agricultural land. There is a 50 percent chance in any
given year of the river reaching this level.
At 9.5 feet, Portions of Root River Parkway flooded. Water
approaches 8 Mile Rd and 27th St. Root River Parkway near
Cleveland Ave in West Allis and near Layton Ave in Greenfield may
be flooded. Nicholson Rd flooded. A portion of Oakwood Road in
southern Milwaukee County is flooded and closed. There is
widespread flooding to agricultural land. A stage of 9.51 feet is
the 10 percent chance flood meaning that there is a 10 percent
chance in any given year of the river reaching this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 5:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 8.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 5:00 AM CDT Monday was 8.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.5
feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
tomorrow evening.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
9.5 feet on 05/18/2020.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 1 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Franklin 8.0 7.0 8.14 5 am 9/12 8.1 6.5 4.2 3.4
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Franklin 9.02 10 am 9/12 7.13 9.50 7 pm 9/12
&&
LAT...LON 4291 8808 4291 8798 4289 8793 4287 8790
4281 8795 4285 8806
$$
WIC079-130345-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OAKW3.1.ER.220912T0404Z.220912T0730Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Oak Creek At South Milwaukee.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 9.1 feet, This level is the 1 percent chance flood
meaning that there is a 1 percent chance of the river reaching
this level in any given year. Flooding effects are confined mainly
to lowland and wooded land.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 5:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 9.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 5:00 AM CDT Monday was 10.0 feet.
- Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
9.4 feet on 07/02/2000.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 5 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
South Milwaukee 8.0 5.5 9.35 5 am 9/12 not a forecast point
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
South Milwaukee 9.97 2 am 9/12 5.27 Not Available
&&
LAT...LON 4288 8787 4289 8792 4291 8791 4293 8786
4290 8785 4290 8787
$$
WIC133-130345-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220914T0600Z/
/WKEW3.1.ER.220912T0313Z.220912T0830Z.220914T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Fox River Lower At Waukesha.
* WHEN...Until early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 7.1 feet, Water is over the banks in Frame Park and
floodwaters are at least 2 feet deep on land near the shoreline.
About one half mile south of downtown Waukesha, water is 2 to 3
feet deep and covering much of the back yards of 6 or 7 homes in
the Bethesda Court area of Waukesha.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 5:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 7.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 5:00 AM CDT Monday was 7.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
tomorrow evening and continue falling to 4.0 feet early
Monday morning.
- Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
7.0 feet on 07/12/2017.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 1 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Waukesha 6.0 5.0 7.06 5 am 9/12 6.3 5.6 5.1 4.7
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Waukesha 7.26 3 am 9/12 1.93 6.80 1 am 9/13
&&
LAT...LON 4304 8824 4304 8817 4300 8821 4297 8823
4300 8832 4302 8826
$$
MARQUARDT726
WGUS83 KMKX 122101
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
401 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Oak Creek At South Milwaukee affecting Milwaukee County.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued late tonight at 400 AM CDT.
&&
WIC079-130915-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OAKW3.1.ER.220912T0404Z.220912T0730Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
401 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Oak Creek At South Milwaukee.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 9.1 feet, This level is the 1 percent chance flood
meaning that there is a 1 percent chance of the river reaching
this level in any given year. Flooding effects are confined mainly
to lowland and wooded land.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 5:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 9.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 5:00 AM CDT Monday was 10.0 feet.
- Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
9.4 feet on 07/02/2000.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 5 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
South Milwaukee 8.0 5.5 9.35 5 am 9/12 not a forecast point
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
South Milwaukee 9.97 2 am 9/12 4.30 Not Available
&&
LAT...LON 4288 8787 4289 8792 4291 8791 4293 8786
4290 8785 4290 8787
$$797
WGUS83 KMKX 122106
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
406 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Root River At Franklin affecting Milwaukee County.
Fox River Lower At Waukesha affecting Waukesha County.
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Oak Creek At South Milwaukee affecting Milwaukee County.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 515 PM CDT.
&&
WIC079-122215-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220912T2106Z/
/OAKW3.1.ER.220912T0404Z.220912T0730Z.220912T1903Z.NO/
406 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Oak Creek At South Milwaukee.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 3:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 7.8 feet.
- Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 5 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
South Milwaukee 8.0 5.5 7.81 3 pm 9/12 not a forecast point
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
South Milwaukee 9.97 2 am 9/12 4.30 Not Available
&&
LAT...LON 4288 8787 4289 8792 4291 8791 4293 8786
4290 8785 4290 8787
$$
WIC079-130915-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220914T0730Z/
/FRKW3.1.ER.220912T0930Z.220913T0000Z.220913T1930Z.NO/
406 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Root River At Franklin.
* WHEN...Until early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 9.5 feet, Portions of Root River Parkway flooded.
Water approaches 8 Mile Rd and 27th St. Root River Parkway near
Cleveland Ave in West Allis and near Layton Ave in Greenfield may
be flooded. Nicholson Rd flooded. A portion of Oakwood Road in
southern Milwaukee County is flooded and closed. There is
widespread flooding to agricultural land. A stage of 9.51 feet is
the 10 percent chance flood meaning that there is a 10 percent
chance in any given year of the river reaching this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 3:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 9.3 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 3:00 PM CDT Monday was 9.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.3
feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early
tomorrow afternoon.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
9.3 feet on 04/21/1973.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Franklin 8.0 7.0 9.29 3 pm 9/12 7.7 5.9 3.8 3.1
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Franklin 9.29 3 pm 9/12 7.06 9.30 7 pm 9/12
&&
LAT...LON 4291 8808 4291 8798 4289 8793 4287 8790
4281 8795 4285 8806
$$
WIC133-130915-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220914T0600Z/
/WKEW3.1.ER.220912T0313Z.220912T0830Z.220914T0000Z.NO/
406 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Fox River Lower At Waukesha.
* WHEN...Until early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 6.8 feet, Floodwaters are over the banks in Frame
Park and floodwaters are about 2 feet deep on land near the
shoreline. About one half mile south of downtown Waukesha, water
is 2-3 feet deep and covering much of the back yards of 6 or 7
homes in the Bethesda Court area of waukesha. This level is the 20
percent chance flood meaning that there is a 20 percent chance in
any given year of the river reaching this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 3:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 6.8 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 3:00 PM CDT Monday was 7.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
tomorrow evening and continue falling to 4.0 feet Monday
morning.
- Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
6.8 feet on 07/15/2010.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(Stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Waukesha 6.0 5.0 6.84 3 pm 9/12 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.6
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Waukesha 7.26 3 am 9/12 2.46 6.80 1 am 9/13
&&
LAT...LON 4304 8824 4304 8817 4300 8821 4297 8823
4300 8832 4302 8826
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Sep 11, 10:16 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 11, 10:16 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
.UPDATE...
(Issued 1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)
Added Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties to the Flood Watch, as
these areas have been experiencing some of the moderate to heavy
rainfall, and this may try to pivot over these areas overnight.
Rainfall here may be somewhat less than to the south, but may see
enough rainfall here to result in some localized flooding impacts.
The rest of the Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 PM CDT
Monday afternoon. CAMS suggest the axis of moderate to heavy rain
should pivot over the area overnight, possibly focusing over the
far southeast counties toward the Madison and Janesville areas.
The far southeast counties are the biggest concern for flooding
issues overnight, as this area has already seen 2 to 5 inches of
rainfall, and localized amounts over 6 to 7 inches in eastern
Racine County.
Have not had much in the way of impacts so far in this area,
aside from some usual low areas having standing water. These areas
will continued to be watched overnight, as the warm rain
processes continue to produce efficient rainfall rates with the
slow-moving 500 mb closed low.
Wood
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)
Tonight through Monday night:
Periods of rainfall will continue into Monday, with localized
heavy rainfall and some flooding possible. A surface over southern
Lake Michigan will continue to deepen into tonight while
remaining nearly stationary. Plenty of forcing aloft per warm air
and theta-e advection. Higher precipitable water values upwards of
1.5 inches will persist in the east/southeast through late
afternoon, with a dry slot then wrapping into the southeast this
evening and overnight.
The Window for the heaviest rainfall will be this afternoon into
the evening hours with the combination of the forcing and deeper
moisture. Could be some higher end localized amounts, as is
evident with higher swaths in the mesoscale models. Meso models
have been converging on this higher potential in the southeast
forecast area. Starting to see things take shape on radar that
would also suggest the southeast may be the hot spot for high
totals into the evening. A broader area of 2 to 5 inches of rain
is possible, with localized amounts of 5 to 7 inches not out of
the question where the axis of heaviest rain pivots.
The axis of rainfall is expected to shift a bit to the north and
west overnight into Monday given the dry slot in the southeast.
Rainfall totals don't look as high for this period, but could be
some decent rainfall. So, will likely keep the Flood Watch as is
for now.
Temps will be on the cooler side again Monday, struggling to hit
60 again. Rain will wind down later Monday into Monday night as
low pressure begins to pull away from the area.
DDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Issued 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)
Tuesday through Sunday:
Much quieter weather begins Tuesday as the upper low exits east
and upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure
slowly build over the area through Thursday. In addition to the
return of sunshine, temperatures will rebound to right around the
seasonal norms for mid September (daytime 70s, nighttime 50s).
Model consensus breaks down this upper level ridge Friday into
next weekend, which will bring an increase in rainfall chances.
Current timing suggests most areas look to remain dry through
Friday, with increasing PoPs from northwest to southeast Saturday
and lingering into Sunday. Temperatures will trend to above
average Friday into Saturday.
Gagan
&&
.AVIATION...
(Issued 1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)
Expect moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall to linger overnight
into Monday morning as it pivots across the area, with some breaks
at times possible. The rain should then gradually shift east of
the area by later Monday afternoon or early Monday evening.
IFR ceilings below 1000 feet AGL should linger overnight into
Monday morning, before rising above 1000 feet AGL in the
afternoon. Visibility values should range from 2 to 5 miles with
the rain, though 1 mile or lower values are possible in any
heavier rain areas.
Gusty northwest to north winds overnight are expected, though some
east to northeast winds may occur by the lakeshore areas, with the
surface low just southeast of the area. Not expecting low level
wind shear conditions overnight, though it may get close at times.
Should see winds gradually weaken later Monday into Monday
night, as the low moves off to the east.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
(Issued 1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)
The Gale Warning will continue until 1 AM CDT Monday morning for
the south half of the open waters, as well as the nearshore
waters. Winds have remained gusty, with a ship observation still
reporting 33 knot winds southeast of Racine. Most automated
observations are below gale force, but will continue the warning
until those winds start trending downward.
The low will remain nearly stationary into Monday, with winds
easing in the south into Monday. Gusty northeast winds are likely
to persist across portions of the north into Monday evening.
Lighter winds are likely across the lake Tuesday, as the low
pulls away to the east. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
into Monday after the Gale Warning expires.
Wood
&&
.BEACHES...
(Issued 1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022)
Gusty northwest winds may try to become more northeast again
overnight, as the surface low lingers to the southeast. Kept
forecast waves in the 7 to 9 foot range overnight, before slowly
weakening Monday. If the northwest winds linger, waves may lower
quicker than currently forecast, and the ending time of the Beach
Hazards Statement may need to be moved to an earlier times.
For now, high swim risk conditions for lakeshore beaches will
continue into Monday. Life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and avoid dangerous areas like
piers, inlets, and breakwalls.
Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-
WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-
WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM Monday.
Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 7 PM Monday.
Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 AM Monday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 until 1 AM Monday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 AM Monday to 7 PM
Monday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Monday to 4 AM
Monday.
&&
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www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukeeHazardous weather outlook, Sep 11, 10:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1022 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-130330- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 1022 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight Several inches of heavy rainfall are expected with ponding in low-lying areas and localized flooding, and a Flood Watch remains in effect. Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms with this activity as well. A high swim risk continues for all lakeshore beaches. Life threatening waves and currents are expected due to gusty northeast winds. Stay out of the water and avoid dangerous areas like piers, inlets, and breakwalls. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday The heavy rainfall will continue into Monday, with storm total amounts between 2 to 5 inches and locally as high as 6 to 8 inches expected, especially in far southeast Wisconsin. Ponding in low-lying areas, localized flooding, and river flooding are possible for any areas seeing persistent heavy rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect into early Monday afternoon. The high swim risk continues for Ozaukee and Sheboygan County beaches on Monday. Stay out of the water and avoid dangerous areas like piers, inlets, and breakwalls. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not needed at this time, but any heavy rainfall reports would be appreciated. LMZ643>646-130330- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 1022 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...Rest of tonight A Gale Warning is in effect until 1 AM CDT Monday morning, for gusty north to northwest winds to 35 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions will then linger through the remainder of the night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue until early Monday evening for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan to North Point Lighthouse. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Monday. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-130330- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 1022 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight A Gale Warning is in effect until 1 AM CDT Monday morning for the southern half of Lake Michigan, for gusty north to northwest gales to 35 knots. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday Isolated thunderstorms will be possible again on Monday. Wood www.weather.gov/mkx
In the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 11, 9:48 PM CDT, 2 hours 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
948 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0856 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW KENOSHA 42.57N 87.87W
09/11/2022 M5.00 INCH KENOSHA WI PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA.
&&Local storm report, Sep 11, 10:03 PM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW LAKE MILLS 43.08N 88.91W
09/11/2022 M2.85 INCH JEFFERSON WI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&Local storm report, Sep 11, 10:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1009 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W RACINE 42.74N 87.84W
09/11/2022 M6.20 INCH RACINE WI PUBLIC
REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&Local storm report, Sep 11, 10:11 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW BIG BEND 42.90N 88.25W
09/11/2022 M6.00 INCH WAUKESHA WI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&Local storm report, Sep 11, 10:13 PM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM HEAVY RAIN CALEDONIA 42.81N 87.93W
09/11/2022 M5.50 INCH RACINE WI PUBLIC
REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&Local storm report, Sep 11, 10:15 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1015 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0703 PM HEAVY RAIN MONTICELLO 42.74N 89.59W
09/11/2022 M2.71 INCH GREEN WI PUBLIC
REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 7:33 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha | 13 hr |
| Sep 11, 10:33 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | MKX | Racine | 117 min |
| Sep 12, 12:03 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Waukesha | 4 days |
| Sep 12, 1:09 AM CDT | Gale Warning | MKX | 6 hr | |
| Sep 12, 1:09 AM CDT | Small Craft Advisory | MKX | 12 hr | |
| Sep 12, 4:03 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MKX | Milwaukee, Waukesha | 5 hr |
| Sep 12, 5:54 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Milwaukee | 49 hr |
| Sep 12, 8:53 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MKX | Milwaukee, Racine, Waukesha | 9 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Wisconsin, 2022Every river flood warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.