Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
824 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak cold fronts will move into the area late week
and into the weekend bringing periods of unsettled weather.
Strong cold front pushes through by Sunday bringing a reprieve
from the sultry and unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...Regional radar this evening shows
scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing from the Ohio Valley
to the Mid- Atlantic/Carolinas at this time. Across the Ohio
Valley, convection appears to be focused to the south of a s/w
glancing the area, but this convection may tend to weaken with
time as it approaches a more stable/worked over airmass
downstream across eastern KY/western VA. To the east, from
central VA south to central NC, convection may be loosely tied
to the s/w glancing the OH Valley, but may also be supported by
weak SFC troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. The airmass
downstream of that convection appears to be mostly uncapped and
moderately unstable, including across portions of ENC. Recent
visible satellite imagery reveals some agitated cumulus east of
the ongoing central NC convection, and radar has shown some
attempts at showers developing near/just west of ENC. The lack
of sustained convective development there appears to be due to a
lack of better forcing, and it appears the risk of deep
convection will remain low across ENC over the next 1-2 hours.

Thereafter, the forecast becomes more tricky. With time, developing
cold pools should support a continued E/SE propagation of ongoing
convective clusters through central NC and possibly into western
sections of ENC. Like last night, though, inhibition will be
increasing as the boundary layer slowly begins to "cool" with the
loss of daytime heating. Given how warm and moist it is, though, and
a continued W/SW low-level flow, the boundary layer should rapidly
stabilize, and inhibition doesn't look overly strong through the
late evening hours. Bottom line, it's plausible that some convection
could make it this far east, but with increasing inhibition,
convection may tend to be on a weakening trend. If forcing ends up
stronger than forecast, especially with various cold pools
developing, deeper convection and at least a conditional severe risk
may still exist this evening, especially across western sections of
ENC. If that scenario plays out, strong wind gusts of 50-60 mph will
be the main severe risk (along with lightning and heavy rain). The
ongoing forecast handles this pretty well with the highest pops
being focused across our western counties. With this early evening
update, the main change will be to push the pops/chance of storms
back a few hours to better match the latest radar and satellite
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wed...Very similar conditions are expected tomorrow
with high pressure offshore and a weak stalled boundary to the
north in VA. The main expected difference tomorrow will be
shortwave energy moving overhead in the afternoon, and a
slightly more moist atmosphere, which together should be enough
to overcome any inhibition for convective initiation. Strong
heating will allow for significant instability to develop by
late morning, which will also coincide with 20 kts to perhaps
30 kts of deep layer shear. This should all come together to
produce rapid convective initiation by early afternoon, and
include a threat for severe thunderstorms (likely in the form of
damaging wind gusts), as well as the potential for flash
flooding (due to high PWats and very heavy rain rates).

With very hot conditions and high humidity expected again, a
Heat Advisory has been issued for all mainland areas. High
temps are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, and with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s expected (potentially almost
80 along the coast), heat indices will again reach 105 to 110
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wed...Showers and thunderstorms will be in the
forecast through first half of the weekend as a very moist and
unstable airmass prevails across the region through the rest of
the week. Cooler and drier air mass moves in for the second half
of the weekend into early next week.

Thursday Night through Saturday...Period of hot and sultry
conditions will cont to be in place as ENC is under broad nwrly
flow aloft, but at the sfc flow is swrly bringing very moist and
unstable atms to the region. This pattern will be conducive to
afternoon diurnal thunderstorms, though also potential overnight
MCS activity as atms will cont to be quite unstable through the
overnight periods, and thus have high pops each night through
Saturday. Record or near-record high PW's are fcst through this
period, with readings of 2.25-2.5", certainly at or above the
avg mean max for early July. Severe threat will be in place each
day, as aforementioned shortwave energy provides marginal shear
parameters, though instability will be quite high. With the
high PW air mass in place, flooding rains are possible as
rainfall rates will be quite high in thunderstorms. Highs
through the rest of the week cont to push above 90 inland, with
mid 80s along the beaches. Some marginal heat adv conditions
each afternoon as TD's will range from 75-80.

Sunday through Wednesday...Strong cold front is progged to push
through by Sunday, ending the unsettled weather and bringing a
welcome reprieve from the hot and sultry conditions. Highs
should be knocked down into the 80s with lower humidities.
Nights will cool down into the low/mid 60s inland with low 70s
beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday Afternoon/...
As of 815 PM Wednesday...Continued risk of TSRA over the next 24
hours.

Very similar to last night, scattered to numerous TSRA are ongoing
from central Virginia south into central North Carolina. So far,
TSRA have weakened as they have approached ENC over the past few
hours. However, there is still a chance some of these TSRA could
make it into portions of ENC through the night, and I added a VCTS
mention where this risk is the highest. Where/if TSRA do occur,
gusty/erratic winds in excess of 40kt will be possible, along with
reduced VIS/CIGs. Like yesterday, tonight's TSRA leaves some
question as to the coverage of SHRA and TSRA on Thursday. I opted to
add a VCTS to most TAF sites for tomorrow given higher confidence
compared to earlier today, but it's still not a slam dunk.

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast through Sat. In addition, patchy
early morning fog is possible each night/early morning. Ocnl
heavy rains and patchy fog will lead to tempo periods of sub VFR
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 400 PM Wed...Moderate SW winds will continue through the
period as the gradient remains pinched with a stalled front to
the north. Winds across the coastal waters will at times gust to
25 kts through tomorrow, but given the marginal nature of this
threat, will hold off on issuing any Small Craft Advisories.
Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Wed...Swrly flow will inc somewhat Thu/Fri as
gradient increases and weak cold front/low pres to the north
strengthen the winds. Winds inc to 20-25 kt late Thur, and
remain in this range through Fri. SCA may eventually be needed
for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Seas generally 3-5 ft
through Sat, though some 6 ft sets will develop from time to
time through early weekend. Cold front moves through by Sat
night or early Sun, with nerly winds developing but should be
sub SCA (10-20 kt).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...TL/SGK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
818 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

NCZ204-205-080030-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
818 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and damaging
winds will once again be possible on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
before a cold front brings cooler and more stable air on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-080030-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
818 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.
   Heat Advisory.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and damaging
winds will once again be possible on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
before a cold front brings cooler and more stable air on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-080030-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
818 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight. The
main threats will be very heavy rain, minor flooding, and strong to
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and damaging
winds will once again be possible on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
before a cold front brings cooler and more stable air on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-080030-
Northern Outer Banks-
818 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and damaging
winds will once again be possible on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
before a cold front brings cooler and more stable air on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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