Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
643 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Ian will bring widespread impacts to eastern NC into
the weekend. Unsettled weather may continue into early next week
depending on the track of the remnants of Ian across the Mid-
Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 640 AM Friday...See HLSMHX for full impact details from
Hurricane Ian.

Hurricane Ian is currently located off the GA coast and is
forecast to move NNW into SC between Charleston and Myrtle Beach
this afternoon. The hurricane will interact with an quasi-
stationary front that is currently off our coast, pushing it
onshore late today and north of the area tonight. Deep moisture
is surging across eastern NC today and will continue into
tonight which will result in moderate to heavy rainfall
gradually spreading inland from the coast this morning and
continuing throughout the day as several rainbands move through
the area. Winds will remain strong along the coast, while
increasing inland as the gradient slowly tightens today as Ian
moves onshore to our south.

Heavy rainfall could bring localized flash flooding, especially
for urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas as 4-6 inches of
rain with some locally heavier amounts is forecast for eastern
NC today into tonight.

Strong NE winds ahead of the warm front will become strong S
as the front lifts north and the main core of Ian crosses the
Carolina Piedmont. Gusty winds could lead to some localized
wind damage and power outages, and a Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for the entire area. Low level wind profiles
indicate that there will be some tornadic potential with
stronger cells along the front and within the rainbands, and at
least a few isolated but likely weak tornadoes are possible,
especially along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 420 AM Friday...As weakening Ian moves into western NC
tonight, it will push the warm front north of the area with mid
level dry slotting leading to the end of the widespread heavy
rainfall across the area by late this evening. With deep
southerly flow, persistent heavy rainbands could persist along
or just off of the Outer Banks overnight and will hang on to
high PoPs there for this package. The strong winds should begin
to diminish after midnight as Ian weakens to the west of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Ian will begin to dissipate inland on
Saturday, but the remnant low may linger around through early
next week. High pressure eventually builds in by midweek, for a
quieter stretch of weather.

Saturday...Heavier rainfall early Saturday morning will taper
off through the day with a chc for some showers and an iso
tstorm along the OBX through the aftn. Latest forecast has Ian
dissipating inland, allowing Srly winds to diminish to around
10-15 mph. Model guidance is showing dry air flanking a
weakening Ian from the south, allowing precip chances during the
day Saturday to remain in the schc to chc range. While a few
iso showers cannot be ruled out, Saturday is expected to be on
the drier side with warm aftn temps in the upper 70s to around
80.

Sunday through Tuesday...Much disagreement on where remnants of
Ian will linger, but it could continue to be unsettled with
remnants of Ian lingering in the Southeast or Mid Atlantic.
Global guidance currently suggesting the remnant cutoff low from
Ian will merge with an upper level trough Sunday into Monday,
resulting in the formation of a broad coastal low off the NC/VA
coastline. While it remains too early for specifics, impacts
from such a coastal low would result in increased rain chances
along the OBX and additional coastal concerns during this
period.

Wednesday and Thursday...Guidance currently shows high pressure
building in from the west, pushing the aforementioned coastal
feature out to sea, bringing in a quieter stretch of weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 640 AM Thu...Mix of MVFR and mostly IFR conditions across
the terminals early this morning. Increasing low level moisture
will result lowering ceilings to widespread IFR and increased
rainfall will lead to occasional MVFR to IFR visibilities today
with the interaction between Hurricane Ian and a complex frontal
system moving into the area. Strong winds will occur today into
tonight, then a weakening Ian to the west and dry air filtering
into the region will see rain dissipating overnight with
diminishing but still gusty southerly winds and ceilings
improving to MVFR during the evening.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 325 AM Fri...As Ian begins to dissipate inland on
Saturday, drier air will filter in along with lighter Srly
winds around 10 kts, providing a brief break in the precip, but
rain chances return Sunday. A coastal low may develop Monday
into Tuesday, bringing a surge of Nrly winds with potential
flight restrictions along the OBX coastline.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 640 AM Friday...Tropical Storm conditions are ongoing
across the waters with strong NE to E winds becoming SE this
afternoon. Very dangerous seas reach 10-15 ft today in very
rough northeasterly windswell, which will be replaced by medium
period southerly swell. Tonight winds will continue to veer to
the S and diminish below Tropical Storm force as Ian weakens
inland to our west. Seas will subside to 7-10 ft late.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Winds turn SE-S by Saturday, gradually
ramping down to 20-25 kt gusts by Saturday. Seas also respond,
diminishing to 6-8 ft Saturday. By Sunday, winds are currently
expected to turn back NNE at 10-15 kts with 3-5 ft seas. At the
moment, model guidance is struggling to forecast where the
remnants of Ian may end up. How that unfolds will impact whether
or not a coastal low decides to develop late Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday, potentially bringing poor marine conditions across
the northern and central waters. Currently, forecast models are
suggesting this, but it is highly dependent on what ends up
happening with Ian.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 AM Fri...Flood Watch in effect for the area. An
extended period of heavy rain showers is beginning to push
inland this morning, peaking later today and into tonight. This
will bring the potential for flash flooding for Eastern NC, as
well as river flooding on the main stem waterways and smaller
tributaries and creeks. At this time, around 4 inches of rain
is forecast for Eastern NC Friday through Sunday, with isolated
higher amounts possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 350 AM Fri...Strong NE winds will shift to the E/SE during
the day Friday. This will lead to storm surge, strong rip
currents, high surf, coastal flooding and beach erosion through
this weekend. There is the greatest confidence in 2-4 ft of
storm surge along the lower Neuse River, where a Storm Surge
Warning is currently in place. Additionally, 2-4 ft ft of storm
surge is possible across much of the rest of coastal NC,
depending on the eventual track of Ian, and a Storm Surge watch
is in effect given the lower confidence in 3 ft of storm surge
inundation, though at least minor inundation is likely, from
Surf City to Duck and across the Inner Banks. Overwash could
impact beachfront properties and roads near vulnerable dune
structures beginning tonight through Saturday mainly around the
times of high tides. Finally, minor inundation of low lying
property along the southern coastal of the Albemarle Sound is
possible tonight into Friday, where a Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-
     193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ045>047.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ080-081-094-195-196-199-203>205.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ094-194.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for NCZ195-196-199-
     203>205.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-
     230-231.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...ML
MARINE...JME/ML
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
522 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-010930-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
522 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.
   High Surf Advisory.
   Storm Surge Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

There is potential for a few tornadoes across eastern North Carolina
early Friday through Friday night. Make sure you have multiple ways
to receive warnings and be able to seek shelter quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Storm Surge Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044-079-090>092-193-010930-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Northern Craven-
522 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

There is potential for a few tornadoes across eastern North Carolina
early Friday through Friday night. Make sure you have multiple ways
to receive warnings and be able to seek shelter quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ080-081-198-010930-
Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Inland Onslow-
522 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

There is potential for a few tornadoes across eastern North Carolina
early Friday through Friday night. Make sure you have multiple ways
to receive warnings and be able to seek shelter quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Surge Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ094-194-010930-
Pamlico-Southern Craven-
522 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

There is potential for a few tornadoes across eastern North Carolina
early Friday through Friday night. Make sure you have multiple ways
to receive warnings and be able to seek shelter quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Surge Warning.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-010930-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-
522 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

There is potential for a few tornadoes across eastern North Carolina
early Friday through Friday night. Make sure you have multiple ways
to receive warnings and be able to seek shelter quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
825 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW OCRACOKE LIGHTHOU 35.14N 76.01W
09/30/2022  M56 MPH          AMZ135             NC   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XOCR OCRACOKE (WXFLOW).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
826 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W CEDAR ISLAND        35.02N 76.45W
09/30/2022  M53 MPH          CARTERET           NC   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KNBT PINEY ISLAND (NBT AWOS).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
916 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     STORM SURGE      3 SE GREAT NECK         34.91N 76.64W
09/30/2022                   CARTERET           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ALONG BACK CREEK REPORTED
            WATER LEVELS 3.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OR 2.5
            FEET ABOVE DRY GROUND. THE CREEK IS ONE OF
            THE SMALLER CREEKS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE
            NEUSE RIVER, RIGHT OFF ADAMS CREEK.

&&

HEDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     STORM SURGE      3 SE GREAT NECK         34.90N 76.65W
09/30/2022                   CARTERET           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ALONG BACK CREEK REPORTED
            WATER LEVELS 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OR 3 FEET
            ABOVE DRY GROUND. THE CREEK IS ONE OF THE
            SMALLER CREEKS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE NEUSE
            RIVER, RIGHT OFF ADAMS CREEK.

&&

OC